Champions League Knockout Round – Best Bets

This week we head into the first leg of the Champions League knockout round. In this article, I will be going to a matchup that kicks off on Wednesday where we have two teams that are heading in completely opposite trajectories. We have Club Brugge taking on Benfica with the first game taking place in Belgium. Continue reading for my best bets to target in this first leg matchup in the Champions League.

New to betting on soccer? Check out this guide I created here.

Club Brugge Coming Off the Rails

Let’s look back at October when Club Brugge was flying high and defying all odds. They were reaching the knockout for the first time ever in a solid group that featured Leverkusen, Atletico Madrid, and Porto. It did not take long for all things positive to unravel as Brugge was thumped 4-0 by Porto on their home field that began the start of a downward spiral.

Since November 6th, in 12 games they have only two wins. One was against a  tier three side in a cup game and one against relegation candidate Zulte Waregem. What is even more concerning is the sent manager Carl Hoefkens packing on December 28th. Since then, appointed manager Scott Parker has done little to turn the squad around keeping only one clean sheet in seven games with just one lone win.

Benefica Dominating All Season Long

Benfica, the Portuguese giant has been on an absolute tear throughout the season. They’ve only lost one game in their last 26 with that game being the first game back from the World Cup. It’s also worth remembering that was a tough road match against fellow solid side Sporting Braga. That being said, this 26-game stretch includes defeating Juventus both home and away. Additionally, collecting points both home and away drawing twice against juggernaut Paris Saint Germain.

Benfica has scored 51 goals in 20 league games this year. That’s good for the top total goals in the league as well as 1st place in a very solid Portuguese league. Simply put, Benefica has been dominating all season long.

Glaring Gulf in Quality Between the 2 Leagues

For those that don’t follow these two leagues, I consider the gap in quality between the Portuguese league and the Belgium league to be a significant one. Not only is Brugge trending in bad form, but currently they are 20 points off of 1st place in their domestic league. Really, that is unheard of for what is widely regarded as the best and most consistent team in Belgium year in and year out.

As mentioned previously, Porto has already gone to Brugge and easily dispatched them 4-0. Additionally, I consider Porto to be by far the best comparison. They not only play in the same league but are also nearly identical in numbers. Finally, you can see this as there is only a 5-point gap between the two in Portugal with Benfica having a +39 goal differential to Porto’s +35.

Different Team, Same Result

When Porto played Brugge they closed around the +120 or +125 range depending on what sportsbook you’re on. Benfica comes into this game as a firm -114 road favorite, and understandably so. While I mentioned they are extremely similar to Porto, I believe the price difference is due to Brugge’s run of bad form. On top of that, we’ve already seen what happens when a top Portuguese team plays Brugge.

The Pick: Benefica ML, 2.5 Units

SGP Option: Benefica ML, Under 4.5 +120

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