Chris Olave 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
As we continue to see the league shift into a pass-centric model on offense, securing a target hog on your fantasy football roster is increasingly crucial. That goes double for PPR leagues. Identifying the next top-tier stud maximizes your chance of crossing the finish line in your leagues. Usually, this comes in the form of an early career breakout. Queue Chris Olave.
Furthermore, the second-year receiver for the Saints is primed for an elite tenure in the league. He demonstrated high-level playmaking ability as a rookie. Considering that Andy Dalton was his quarterback makes this feat all the more impressive. In this article, we will dive deeper into the viability of a true breakout campaign as we break down Olave’s fantasy football outlook for 2023.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
As a rookie, Olave wasted no time establishing himself as the frontrunner in targets for the Saints. He carved out a noteworthy 23.2% target share. For context, this put him on par with his former college teammate and fellow rookie, Garrett Wilson, who managed an impressive 23.4% himself. A fair question to ask is what his slice of the target pie will look like with Michael Thomas in tow.
The last time we saw Thomas produce meaningful numbers was in 2019. He’s played a mere 10 games since. He was productive in his three starts last season, but Olave out-targeted him 28 to 22 in that stretch. Looking ahead to the coming year, Thomas recently admitted to reporters that he’s still not 100%.
Furthermore, there’s also the difference in roles between the two players to consider. Olave is an explosive deep threat, whereas Thomas has made a name for himself, running slant routes over the middle. Olave averaged an average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.9 yards, while Thomas posted only 10.5.
Considering that Olave missed two games, it’s impressive that he compiled 1,670 air yards, putting him eighth in that category among all receivers. Newcomer, Derek Carr, has shown the ability to take shots down the field effectively. He struggled in this regard last season, but the dysfunction in Las Vegas offers hope that he can return to form in 2023. Not to mention, there has already been buzz out of training camp about the strong connection that Carr and Olave have established.
Last year, Olave was on a 17-game pace for 81 receptions as a rookie. There’s nowhere to go but up when you factor in that New Orleans ranked 27th in the league in total pass attempts. Additionally, the Saints have had crippling quarterback inconsistency and a hefty lack of receiver talent over the past few seasons. Now, adding Carr and combining two reliable pass-catching options in Olave and Thomas should help raise their passing volume.
Per FantasyPros consensus average draft position (ADP), Olave is going in the middle of the third round as the WR14 in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. That’s a fair value relative to his projected ceiling as a low-end WR1. He’s just behind the likes of DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins. While both players have proven to be dynamic on the field, it’s worth betting on an ascending WR1 for an offense versus the firmly established second options for the Eagles and Bengals. All things considered, you can pencil Olave in as a low-risk, high-upside WR2 for your fantasy football rosters.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Given his young age, college pedigree, and rookie production, Olave should be considered a mid to low-end WR1 in dynasty fantasy football leagues. Needless to say, he won’t come cheap, but his value could easily skyrocket after the season. Now would be a great time to send a trade offer before it becomes nearly impossible to acquire him. If injuries don’t derail his career trajectory, expect consistent yearly output from the budding star. Check out where Olave ranks in our up-to-date fantasy football rankings for 2023.
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