Consistency Corner: Week 1
Since we haven’t had any actual football yet and the Consistency Scores (CS) hasn’t changed, I thought ahead of setting your fantasy football Week 1 lineups, it would be a good time to go over the Consistency Score, Defensive Points Allowed Consistency (D-PAC), and what to expect in this column on a regular basis. Check it all out here in my first Consistency Corner: Week 1.
What is the Consistency Score?
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
The Consistency Score (CS) and Defensive Points Allowed Consistency (D-PAC) is one simple number that shows who performs at a high level, regularly for fantasy football purposes. The higher the score, the more often that player scores a high level of fantasy points.
This metric balances not only consistent production but also week-winning ability. After all, a player who scores between five and six fantasy points every week is super consistent, but also super unhelpful to your roster. However, a player that bounces between 18-30 points every week is “less” consistent, but an every-week starter.
Two players I like to use as an example in this regard are Tyler Lockett and D.J. Moore. For 2020, Lockett racked up a CS of 4.87 while Moore’s CS was 4.49. Looking at the math, Moore’s average fantasy points per game was 11.85 with a standard deviation of 6.15. Lockett had slightly higher average points per game of 12.56, but also a higher standard deviation of 11.74. So one could say Moore was more consistent.
However, Lockett had a ceiling of 45.5 fantasy points that he put up in Week 7, probably singlehandedly winning fantasy managers that week. Moore on the other hand had his best week of the season in Week 7 as well, but it was only 23.3 fantasy points that week. His best week was a full 22 points less than Lockett’s ceiling performance. Moreover, Lockett’s Week 3, 32.5 was better even than Moore’s ceiling performance. This is what made Lockett’s CS 0.38 points higher than Moore’s and ranked him seven spots higher, despite seemingly having more variance than Moore.
But the truly great thing about CS is that it boils the information down to one comparable number across positions. In the example above, I used it to compare two similar players at the same position. But you can use CS to compare across positions as well. It’s like the saying goes, “you can’t compare apples to oranges”. Well, think of the CS as a kind of alchemy that turns all of the fruit into pineapples so they are actually comparable to one another.
The FF Faceoff’s Consistency Score balances stable weekly performances with week-winning ability to give you one, easy to digest metric to help you construct a roster that can win weekly while also maximizing output.
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So what is D-PAC then?
D-PAC, or Defensive Points Allowed Consistency, is essentially the same thing as CS, but when looking at how many fantasy points a defense gives up to that particular position in Fantasy. This metric is especially useful when streaming a position. D-PAC highlights the most favorable matchups to target when streaming.
In 2020, the Jacksonville Jaguars gave up an average of 22.35 fantasy points per game and easily had the highest D-PAC vs QB’s in the NFL. If you would have streamed every quarterback that played against Jacksonville you would have had a Top 10 quarterback performance for the season. Streaming the QB vs Jacksonville every week would have given you 342.84 fantasy points if you played through Week 17, which would have been 8th overall at the position. Right in between Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady in the end of the season rankings.
This can also be used to find negative matchups you might want to avoid. The Green Bay Packers had a Top 10 D-PAC score, meaning they were consistent, but their 16.42 average points allowed ranked 29th. So in this instance, D-PAC is showing you that they consistently don’t allow many points to the QB position and should be avoided.
If you find yourself needing to stream a position, or between two players for your flex that have similar Consistency Scores, targeting positive D-PAC matchups will give your roster the edge you need.
Rest of Season
Moving forward I’ll be using this column to highlight risers and fallers in Consistency Score. Help shake out what CS, the new season and offseason moves are showing us as well as highlight advantages that CS and D-PAC are suggesting for the upcoming week of football.
This column in conjunction with our weekly Start/Sit and Waiver columns will give you the best insight and competitive advantage across your leagues. So get ready because Week 1 is just a few days away and we are here to help you win that championship!
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