Boom or Bust. This is a title that gets slapped on a lot of players with no real context. Some players have such high, week-winning ceilings, that they are completely worth the occasional weekly dip.  Others are far more “bust”, and the rare week of relevance is more of the anomaly than anything else.  Tyler Lockett is one such player who has received that moniker in his NFL career. We can use our Fantasy Football Consistency Score to find if that label is accurate and whether or not he’s worth the risk in this Fantasy Football Consistency Profile: Tyler Lockett.

If you’re new to the Consistency Score, you can find out more about how it works, all for free right here. And also you can read our first Consistency Profile on Myles Gaskin.

Historical Consistency Score

Since his emergence in the NFL, Lockett has been a topic for discussion. A clearly talented athlete, it wasn’t until the 2019 season that Lockett was able to surpass 100 targets in a season.  To no real surprise, that was the first season without Doug Baldwin on the team.

But despite Baldwin still being a factor, Lockett’s best season, in terms of CS came in 2018 on the backbone of touchdowns.  He had the same amount of touchdowns in 2020 as his 2018 season, but they came in very different ways.  Last season, Lockett’s 10 touchdowns came in five games. Two of those weeks were impressive three-touchdown performances, skyrocketing his ceiling to an impressive 45.5.  But in 2018, he had 10 weeks with a touchdown.  With similar yardage totals (965 in 2018 and 1,054 in 2020), the consistency of those weekly touchdowns really put him over the edge in 2018.

For a career, Lockett has a 5.35 CS. For reference, this would have ranked him 11th among all receivers in 2020.  Lockett has shown that he is a weekly threat and a dynamic player.  Yet, his 4.87 CS in 2020 was outside the top-12 at his position, ranking 15th. So what happened last season?

As Goes Russell Wilson

All receivers are, clearly, intrinsically tied to their quarterbacks.  A few outliers, through either sheer massive volume or incredible individual talent, can be the exception to the rule. But for the most part, even the best receiver will be limited by sub-par quarterback play.

Russell Wilson is, arguably, one of the top quarterbacks in the league. But even Wilson can definitely have his slumps. For fantasy football purposes, he had four games where he finished outside the top-17 at his position. All four of those games came after Week 9. He also had five weeks where he finished in the topp-five among QBs. All five of those weeks came before Week 9.  It was clear that for fantasy purposes, the offense had a skid there to end the season. And Lockett’s production followed in exactly the same manner.

From Week 1 through Week 8, Lockett had a Consistency Score of 5.17. That would have positioned him 13th at the receiver position.  On the back half of the season though, Week 9 through Week 16, Lockett’s CS drops to a 3.34.  That CS in comparison would have ranked 47th at the end of the year. He also scored seven of his touchdowns that first half of the year, and only one more between Week 9 and Week 16 (he scored two touchdowns in Week 17 if your fantasy season went that long).

Looking at his receptions and yardage, we see a similar split. From Week 1 through Week 8 he racked up 56% of his total receptions and 60% of his yards. Week 9 though Week 16 only 44% and 40%, respectively.  It was truly a story of two seasons.

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Looking Ahead

Overall, Lockett had an acceptable fantasy season ranking 12th in fantasy points per game and ninth overall in total fantasy points. But considering all of his dud games came at the end of the year, when you were making a push for, or in, the fantasy playoffs, it didn’t feel great having Lockett in your WR spot.

What’s more worrisome for Lockett is that he’s lost some of those “big-play threat” metrics. In 2020 his yards after catch per reception only ranked 78th and his average depth of target, 9.7, ranked 55th among all receivers with at least 40 targets. However, his total air yards, 1,285, ranked 21st and his 132 targets were 11th.  He has clearly made a shift towards more usage and steady volume.  This will secure his floor since that volume is coming from one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.  His athleticism dictates he could always break a big play anyway, but his fantasy success isn’t going to be dependant on him doing that on a weekly basis.

So ultimately, your outlook on Lockett should mirror your outlook on Wilson. If you think Wilson is going to rebound from his second-half skid of last season, then Lockett provides a ton of upside. Especially as the 23rd receiver being drafted near the back end of the fifth round. Conversely, if you think Seattle is going to run rather than “Let Russ cook”, and what we saw on the back half of 2020 is more indicative of what we will see in 2021, Lockett probably isn’t the receiver you should be hitching your wagon to.

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