Every summer during the offseason, at some point in time when scanning player ADP, at least one player’s name seems to pop over and over again. Either surprisingly high or surprisingly low on all of the ADP sites that you follow whether it be FantasyPros or FantasyDataNFL. Myles Gaskin is that player this summer, and the first player I will profile using my Consistency Score. If you’re new to the Consistency Score, you can check it all out for free right here. Check out this Consistency Profile: Myles Gaskin and see what you think.
Gaskin is a Fourth Round Value
Is there something in my own bias that I’m unaware of? Is there some community bias I can take advantage of? These are the kind of questions that can provide that slight edge in the draft that all fantasy managers look for year after year. Collectively, there seems to be a fading of Myles Gaskin that eludes my understanding.
Checking various websites, Gaskin seems solidified in the fourth round regardless of the platform. That’s putting him around RB20-RB23 range and being drafted behind the likes of James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Miles Sanders at the running back position.
Of that group of third and fourth-round running backs being drafted ahead of Gaskin, only Robinson had a higher Consistency Score (CS), 6.79 than Gaskins 6.30. And Robinson is also the only one mentioned to have higher average fantasy points per week, 16.13 compared to 14.22. But Robinson has first-round rookie, Travis Etienne joining his backfield, and is apt to lose a lot of that workload this season.
Gaskins was a more valuable rusher than nearly all of those other rushers in 2020. So then why is he being drafted after all of them this fantasy season?
Buy the Injury Dip
From Week 9 through Week 12, Gaskin missed time with a sprained MCL. Pair that with a couple of weeks missed due to COVID-19 and you see how he slipped to 27th in total fantasy points scored despite his “workhorse” type usage.
The average fantasy manager might simply be using your platforms rankings, which usually come from last season year-end totals. But it’s worth the time to scroll down a little early and pull the trigger on Gaskin ahead of your league-mates.
This time of the year, unless you hear otherwise out of camp, let’s assume health. With that assumption, Gaskin is totally worth drafting, at, or a little earlier than his current ADP. On a fantasy points per game basis, his 14.22 ranks 11th* and his 6.30 CS ranks 7th among the position. Yet if you look at the end-of-year rankings, Gaskin ranked 27th in 1/2-PPR scoring for season totals.
Moreso, unlike Robinson, the Miami Dolphins haven’t invested a ton of capital into that backfield. Malcolm Brown is the only new addition, taking Jordan Howard‘s spot. But Gaskin still seems to be poised to be the lead back.
Volume is King
For an undrafted running back, Gaskin was a fantasy darling in 2020 and the best possible waiver wire pickup. In games played, Gaskin was an RB1 (Top-12) 33% of the time and RB2 (Top-24) 67% of the time. That includes the first two games of the season where Jordan Howard was the starting running back. He also never finished outside of an RB3 (Top-36) for fantasy purposes, all year. The key to Gaskin’s fantasy football success was simple. Volume.
In games that Gaskin played last season, he had a 54% market share of the team’s rush attempts and an impressive 32.6% of the team’s offensive opportunities. Out of all running backs with at least 75 rush attempts on the year, he ranked 13th in rush attempts per game, sixth for targets per game, and ninth in overall opportunities per game. That is better than Robinson, Hunt, Dobbins, Swift, and Sanders who, as I said above, are all being drafted ahead of Gaskin. Malcolm Brown is a capable backup running back in the NFL. But in his five-year pro career, he’s been just that. A backup. He will chip away at Gaskin’s gaudy market share from last season. But he’s by no means going to erase Gaskin from the fantasy landscape.
I’m all in on Gaskin at his current ADP. Especially if I flirt with Travis Kelce in the first two rounds. Being able to get a Top-12 rusher as the 20-something back off the board is the kind of value that can kick your 2021 season off right.
*Out of the Top-40 running backs in Consistency Score.
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