Fantasy Football Outlook

Taken as the first wide receiver off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft, high expectations were immediately placed upon Drake London. Unfortunately, things did not quite materialize as London would finish as the WR31. He only ranked 42nd among wide receivers in our Fantasy Football Consistency Score.

Quarterback issues prevented us from seeing the best London has to offer, but this is no reason to avoid drafting him.

Let’s break down London’s rookie season and what it means for his 2023 outlook.

2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

While London’s 2022 did feel disappointing, there are many reasons to be excited about his sophomore campaign.

According to Fantasy Points, London’s targets per route run (TPRR) was an eye-popping 29%, and his team target share was 27.7%. London fared better than fellow rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in both these metrics.

London’s TPRR stands out, and his yards per route run (YPRR) data was also encouraging.

WRs to average 2+ yards per route run at 21 or younger, past 10 seasons:

2.76 – Odell Beckham (2014)
2.68 – Justin Jefferson (2020)
2.52 – Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
2.18 – JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017)
2.09 – Drake London (2022)
2.08 – Mike Evans (2014)
2.05 – Keenan Allen (2013)…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 14, 2023

London’s per-route data is strong, and these metrics are highly correlated to fantasy success.

Schematically, London is in a potentially great position. The Falcons’ running game is set up to thrive again this year with rookie Bijan Robinson in the backfield. Running mate Kyle Pitts will help draw coverage away from London as well. These are weapons that defenses will have to account for. This means London will face many one-on-one matchups to feast on.

And the cherry on top? London was Pro Football Focus’ 10th highest-graded wide receiver in 2022.

Cause for Concern?

Two concerns, though:

1.) Can London succeed in a run-first offense with target competition in Kyle Pitts?

2.) Will quarterback play limit him again?

To our first concern — There is precedent for a talented receiver to thrive in Arthur Smith’s offense.

A.J. Brown faired very well in 2020, coming in at WR12. That also occurred with Corey Davis putting up nearly 1,000 yards that same year. London’s advanced metrics suggest he can similarly thrive in this system.

Regarding the second, it would be hard-pressed for Desmond Ridder to be as bad as Marcus Mariota. While not great, Ridder was an upgrade as he completed 63.5% of his passes compared to Mariota’s 61.3%.

Given the weapons defenses must account for, there will be a plethora of layup throws available for Ridder. He won’t have to be anything special. He’ll just need to give London a chance to use that 6-foot-4, 219-pound frame to his advantage.

And should Ridder falter? Atlanta has a more than capable backup in Taylor Heinicke, who helped Terry McLaurin finish as the WR15 last year.

Checking in as the WR21 in our up-to-date fantasy football rankings, London has the talent and analytical profile that can smash these rankings.

Dynasty Outlook

Though his rookie year was not as impressive as fellow rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, London’s analytical profile shows he is arguably just as talented.

The underlying data for London is stronger than both Wilson and Olave. London belongs in the same tier as his fellow second-year receivers.

While Atlanta’s quarterback situation is less than ideal, it can change quickly for dynasty purposes. He’s a very talented player and is a highly coveted dynasty asset.

London is only beginning to scratch the surface of his talent. He is ranked as WR13 in our up-to-date dynasty football rankings and should be drafted as such in all dynasty startups.

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