Everybody wants “the guy” on their fantasy football roster. Justin Jefferson? That’s a smash pick. Ja’Marr Chase? Sign me up. AJ Brown? That man is basically a walking fantasy football point. However, unless you grab one of these guys in your startup draft, you’re going to have a hell of a tough time trading for one of them. But don’t lose hope! There are a handful of players out there that can be had at a discount for the pure fact that they aren’t their team’s #1 wide receiver.
When you think of a #1 receiver, you likely think of those few guys that I just mentioned. However, no one can deny the value of players like Tee Higgins and DeVonta Smith in your dynasty fantasy football leagues. Today, I’ll be breaking down the dynasty fantasy football outlook for Higgins versus Smith. If you’re on the clock and both wide receivers, who should you take? Continue reading to find out.
Tee Higgins
Current Startup ADP: 34.5
2022 Stat Line: 16 games played, 109 targets, 74 receptions for 1,029 yards, and 7 touchdowns
Trade Value: Top-5 Rookie Pick
I’ve always been higher on Tee Higgins than the consensus so I’m going to do my very best job at keeping this analysis level-headed. With that being said, there are TONS of reasons why I’ve been historically high on Tee Higgins. With an ADP of 34.5, Higgins is going half of a round before Devonta Smith and nearly a full three rounds before Jordan Addison. Is this high ADP warranted? I’ll let you be the judge of that.
Higgins has been about as good as you could want a receiver to be since he entered the league in 2020. As a rookie, he had started 14 games and saw 108 targets which he was able to turn into 908 yards and 6 touchdowns. He did more of the same in 2021, grabbing 74 balls for 1,091 yards and 6 more touchdowns. Throughout his first three seasons, he is averaging over 1,000 yards per season with 6 touchdowns to boot.
Standing at a massive 6’4 and 215 pounds, Higgins is the prototypical size of an “alpha WR”. While he may not be a true alpha wideout due to sharing the field with Chase, Higgins does everything that you’d want your big-bodied receiver to do. He bullies opposing defensive backs, can always be relied on for a big play, and always seems to have a leg-up on those 50/50 balls. Furthermore, those types of big plays do translate extremely well to fantasy football production.
Contract
Another thing that bodes well for his fantasy production? A large contract. Higgins is rumored to be receiving an extension from Cincinnati prior to the 2023 season and the yearly number could be absolutely massive. The latest that I have seen is that he’s expected a payday of $22 to $25 million per year. There are only 9 other receivers in the entire league that make $22m (or more) per year and that list of players is a pretty damn good one.
Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, and Terry McLaurin are the only other receivers on that list. Additionally, being able to put Higgins in the same conversation as those guys indicates that some big production is on the horizon.
Injuries
The main downfall of Higgins has been his health. While he was technically active for 16 games in 2022, he only took significant snaps in 14 of those. He also only played 14 games in 2021 and also started that exact amount in 2020. However, the injuries have not been recurring so I wouldn’t worry about any future “flare-ups”. However, his bruising playstyle does make him a bit more susceptible to injury.
From concussions to ankle sprains and even hamstring tweaks, Higgins has not yet been able to put together a full season. Can 2023 be different? It can, but I’d put my money on him not being available for all 17 games to some minor extent. However, his production when healthy is well worth the price you’ll need to pay for him. And on the odd chance that he can string together a fully healthy season, he could be one of fantasy’s top-5 scoring wide receivers.
Efficiency
Higgins is extremely efficient. In 2022, he averaged 13.9 yards per catch to Chase’s 12. He’s consistently averaged 13.6 yards or better in each of his first three NFL seasons. With Tyler Boyd aging, Hayden Hurst leaving the team and Joe Mixon quickly trending downward in this offense, I’d imagine that more targets will be available for both Higgins and Chase in 2023. More targets equal more opportunities, and more opportunities equal more fantasy points. If we could even see Higgins’ target total increase to 125, he’d be in for a solid season.
Using his statistical averages from his first 46 NFL games, 125 targets could translate into a stat line of 83 receptions, 1,158 yards, and 7 touchdowns. In standard PPR leagues, this would be enough for 240.8 points which would have translated to a WR12 finish in 2022. Overall, not too shabby. And to be honest, I think that these numbers are a conservative guess at what his stat line could be with a fully healthy season in 2023.
According to the ADP, Higgins is being drafted as the WR11, which honestly seems to make a lot of sense. When healthy, his floor is that of a top-15 wide receiver and there’s a place for that on any dynasty roster. While he may not have the same game-breaking ceiling as Chase, Higgins has had his fair share of big games and will have plenty more in the future. Additionally, Higgins may have the highest ceiling between him and Smith. However, with a higher ceiling comes a bit of a higher risk.
Dynasty Outlook
Grabbing a contract extension to be tied to Joe Burrow for the foreseeable future would be a stellar move for his dynasty outlook. I think that these two will continue to grow their chemistry and it’s only a matter of time before Higgins hits his first double-digit touchdown season. As I said, he may not be as exciting to have on your roster as Chase, but he is MUCH closer skills-wise to Chase than people give him credit for.
DeVonta Smith
Current Startup ADP: 40.5
2022 Stat Line: 17 games played, 136 targets, 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and 7 touchdowns
Trade Value: Top-5 Rookie Pick
I think my favorite thing about Smith is all of the nicknames he’s been given. Many of us know him as “The Slim Reaper” but apparently some people call him “Skinny Batman” and that is cracking me up.
Nicknames aside, Smith is an awesome football player and any dynasty squad should be thrilled to have him on their roster. His ADP suggests that he is the 14th wide receiver off the board. Honestly, that may be a pretty big steal. Smith is coming off of a top-9 fantasy finish at the position, so the fact that his cost doesn’t fully reflect his talent is music to a dynasty player’s ears.
Rookie Campaign
Many were fading Smith after his rookie year, as he “only” put up 916 yards and 5 touchdowns on 104 targets. I think that the unwarranted fade was less about his production and more about Chase’s production. Anyone that plays fantasy couldn’t help but compare the two, and Smith just couldn’t keep up with the Chase hype train. As a result, Smith was suddenly a great buy-low candidate in last year’s offseason.
Even more surprising, that buy-low tag may have followed him into this offseason. Think about it, he is one of the only top-receivers in dynasty leagues that is 25 years or younger that is actually being drafted AFTER his previous season finish. Don’t believe me? Check out this list:
Justin Jefferson: WR1 finish, being drafted as the WR1.
Ceedee Lamb: WR5 finish, being drafted as the WR3.
AJ Brown: WR6 finish, being drafted as the WR4.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR7 finish, being drafted as the WR7.
Jaylen Waddle: WR8 finish, being drafted as the WR6.
I could keep going, but I think you get the point. It’s rare to see such a young player outplay his ADP by a decent margin, and then still be able to be had at a discount.
The Eagles Offense
Another reason why people may have been fading him last year was because of Jalen Hurts. Many did not believe that Hurts would be able to support so many weapons with the likes of Brown, Smith, and even Dallas Goedert. Additionally, many figured that Smith may not be anything more than a low-end WR2 most weeks for fantasy. But anyone who doubted Hurts was wrong. Very wrong. And as a result, many people were also wrong about Smith after he broke out with nearly 1,200 yards as a 2nd-year receiver.
If that isn’t enough to get you aboard the Smitty Hype Train, let’s take a look at his play. Much like Addison and Higgins, he shares the field with a dominant wide receiver. He will almost never face off against the opposing CB1, which should make it a bit easier for him to get open in the secondary. Smith is also a nightmare to tackle in the open field and is someone that I would consider a YAC monster.
That Philly offense is one of the most creative in the entire league. I understand that they’ll head into 2023 with a new offensive coordinator, but I can’t imagine the talent on the offense taking any sort of step back. It’s electrifying and I’d love to have either of those receivers on my dynasty squad. However, at cost, I may even prefer Smith over Brown.
While there are significantly more good things to say about Smith than bad things, I would be remiss not to mention his downside. We’ve likely already seen his ceiling.
There aren’t many scenarios where Smith improves on his stat line from 2022. Think about it, we all love Hurts. However, is it realistic to expect that he’ll have more than 3,700 yards in 2023? I mean, it’s definitely possible, but he’s a dual-threat quarterback, and legit dual-threat guys like this very rarely pass for over 4,000 yards. Furthermore, I’d also fully expect Brown to continue commanding his 29% target share. Personally, I would expect Smith’s to drop. The reason? Goedert.
Goedert only played in 12 games last season but did average out to a 19% target share. With how great he played, and how good the Eagles were when Goedert was on the field, I’d imagine his target share to go up by at least a little bit. I think that he’ll take some red zone looks away from Brown, but I think he’ll take even more targets away from Smith in between the 20s. It’s also worth mentioning that the Eagles brought in D’Andre Swift, who does seem to be an obvious factor in the passing game as well.
I just have a hard time believing that Smith will repeat with 136 targets if that entire offense can stay healthy in 2023. He’s a big play waiting to happen, but if targets are going to be divvied out at all on this offense to make way for their new and returning players. In the end, Smith’s targets could be the expense.
Dynasty Outlook
With all of that being said, I think Smith will be perfectly fine and continue to produce at an elite level. I’m not sure that I would be comfortable stating that he’ll repeat as the WR9, but I also wouldn’t be comfortable saying that he won’t outplay his ADP.
At WR14, you’re drafting him at his floor, which is pretty damn awesome considering that you have to draft most elite assets at their ceiling price. He will probably never be a top-5 receiver and will likely find himself outside of the top 10 more often than not. However, he’s a very safe bet to consistently finish inside of the top-15. Between him and Higgins, I’d definitely say that he’s got the safest floor.
Bonus – Jordan Addison
Current Startup ADP: 67.5
2022 Stat Line (College): 11 games played, 59 receptions for 875 yards and 8 touchdowns
Trade Value: Rookie Pick 1.07 or Early/Mid 2024 1st round pick
Just for fun, I’ll throw a rookie with a slightly lower ADP into the mix.
Jordan Addison is entering Minnesota in 2023 as the clear WR2 behind Justin Jefferson. While I am personally a big fan of Addison, we all know that there is no scenario (outside of injury) where he’ll ever be the Viking’s WR1. Additionally, due to the target share limitations of sharing the field with fantasy’s star child, it also means that he’ll likely never be in the conversation of top-5 dynasty wide receivers at any point in his career. But would you believe me if I said that this isn’t actually a bad thing for his incoming fantasy production?
Addison stands at 6’0 but weighs in at a meager 175 pounds. I don’t put too much stock into a receiver’s size if he’s as talented as Addison is, but I also could not call him an “alpha WR” with a straight face. With that being said, it was always a likely outcome that he’d be drafted to be a team’s WR2 and there honestly were not many better situations out there for him than what he got with the Vikings.
Kirk Cousins remains the Vikings’ starter for the 2023 season, and given the fact that they have not yet invested serious draft capital elsewhere, it seems likely that Cousins will be there throughout the 2024 season (and potentially even longer) as well. Believe it or not, this is fantastic news for any offensive player wearing a purple and yellow jersey. Cousins had the 5th most passing attempts of any quarterback in the NFL in 2022, and he was also top-10 in that category in 2021.
Being a top contributor in passing attempts comes with an absolute ton of passing yards as well. Over the last two seasons, Cousins has thrown for a combined total of over 8,700 yards and 62 touchdowns, which plants him firmly in the top-6 for both yards and touchdowns thrown over the last two seasons. Overall, he may not get a ton of respect from NFL fans. However, Cousins is a statistical gold mine for fantasy football players.
Justin Jefferson does account for over 3,400 of those yards, but that means that over 60% of Cousins’ production is available for other players to claim. We’ve seen Adam Thielen be successful opposite of Jefferson, we’ve seen TJ Hockenson be successful in this offense. Hell, we’ve even seen solid games from KJ Osborn! While Hockenson and Osborn are still there, neither of them poses a legitimate threat to Addison’s 2023 (and beyond) outlook.
Addison has the perfect skill set for what the Vikings need. They needed some consistency opposite of Jefferson, and I’d definitely say that they have found it. Addison has arguably the surest set of hands in the 2023 rookie class, which should bode well for his immediate opportunities. He’s also a smooth-as-butter route runner and was able to gain separation with ease at the collegiate level. Obviously, there will be an adjustment period to the NFL, but his skill set is one that typically transfers over very well to the professional level.
It’s also worth noting that Addison will almost never have the opposing CB1 against him. Teams are forced to put their best efforts into defending Jefferson, which means that Addison will have some ideal matchups. With Cousins averaging nearly 38 passing attempts per game, we can go ahead and pencil Addison in for a solid 6 to 8 targets per game right out of the gate. He’ll be thrust into arguably the best situation of any of the rookie receivers and could find himself in contention for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
I know most are too busy touting Jaxon Smith-Njigba but don’t forget that Addison’s name was thrown in the rookie WR1 conversation plenty of times over the last year or so. There is a lot to like about his game and I think that he’s a steal at his current 6th round price in startups. Of the three receivers highlighted in this article, he definitely presents the highest risk factor (due to being an unproven rookie) but also may have the most intriguing range of outcomes.
The Best Choice for Dynasty Leagues
I’m going to take the easy way out and say all of them.
All 3 of them have what it takes to be a solid asset to your dynasty squad. Devonta Smith already has a top-10 finish, Higgins has the capabilities and statistics to support him finishing within the top-10, and Addison fits the mold that these guys have set for dynasty relevance as well.
If you’re feeling risky, I’d go for Higgins. He’s got the makings of a true alpha wide receiver and should only continue to grow in the NFL. God forbid something were to happen to Chase, but if it did, Higgins would immediately find himself in a top-5 role in all of fantasy football. He’s got the skillset to easily finish as a WR1 at any given time and could be a touchdown machine if health goes his way.
If you’re feeling a bit more risk-averse, take the safe option in Smith. As I said, Smith has already finished inside of the top 10, and while it seems likely that we’ve already seen his ceiling, we know that his floor is very safe. Being able to draft him as the 14th wide receiver off of the board should be enough to make any dynasty manager VERY happy.
If you don’t want to pony up an earlier pick and you’re fine with not having a concrete answer, go with the cheapest of all of the options in Jordan Addison. He’s going to be an exciting player to watch for many seasons and is going to be an incredibly solid WR2 for years to come for your dynasty squad.
I’ll never try to make a decision for you, but I will certainly do my best to give you the tools needed to make your own choice. I think that all three of these wide receivers offer their own unique upside in fantasy football and it’s up to you to decide which you are most comfortable with going with!
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