In this article, I’ll be diving into some running backs who have the potential to break out in 2023. These players have either a new starting role moving for or just the upside in general for an increased workload. You’ll want to target these players in your fantasy football leagues this year as they should put up the best fantasy football seasons of their perspective NFL careers to date.
Rachaad White
The 2022 third-round pick for Tampa Bay has a chance to break through in 2023. Todd Bowles came out this offseason and said he wants Rachaad White to become a three-down back. With how running backs are handled in committees these days, hearing those words from the head coach are the equivalent of hitting the jackpot in fantasy football.
With Leonard Fournette being cut this offseason, there are a lot of snaps up for grabs as you can see below. This data comes from one of the many free fantasy football tools we offer here at Faceoff Sports Network.
The Bucs brought in Chase Edmonds on a one-year deal but he was not impressive last season in Miami. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is also in the mix but he shouldn’t be someone who vultures a ton of work from White. This backfield really is for the taking if White wants to take over.
If White can survive the draft without the Bucs adding competition, he is in the driver’s seat for a monster workload. A three-down back who can catch passes out of the backfield could get him into top-15 territory, regardless of how the Buccaneer’s offense looks as a whole in 2023.
Isiah Pacheco
There was a point in time when being a running back in Andy Reid’s system was like gold for fantasy managers. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire not working out and Jerrick McKinnon being a 31-year-old free agent, the opening is there for Pacheco to break out and turn into gold for fantasy managers in 2023.
Pacheco took over the lead role in the backfield in Week 10 with double-digit carries from Week 10 through Week 15. His role continued to be a big one in the postseason once again with double-digit carries in all three playoff games and 197 yards total.
He showed in the AFC Championship that he could handle the receiving role as well when he caught five receptions for 59 yards. If Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon aren’t factors in 2023, more work is on the way for Pacheco and it could be a big year for the second year back.
J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins had a very shaky 2022 season, to say the least. He wasn’t fully healthy coming off a torn ACL to start the year. However, when he finally got healthy, he looked like a star. When he returned in Week 14, he averaged 14 carries and almost 100 yards per game through Week 17.
There are some question marks. Does Lamar Jackson play for Baltimore in 2023? How does new offensive coordinator Todd Monken differ from previous coordinator Greg Roman? How does he deploy his running backs with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill sitting behind Dobbins?
The one thing about new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is that he is known for getting his guys in space. Additionally, it is easy to see where an explosive back like Dobbins fits into his power-running game. Dobbins could see plenty of work with the zone read, the screen game, and also catching balls out of the backfield.
Personally, I expect Lamar Jackson to be the Ravens quarterback when the season begins. I also expect this offense to be more explosive with a new play caller, a healthy Rashod Bateman returning, and Odell Beckham Jr. coming to town. Those are all things that benefit Dobbins greatly when it comes to his 2023 outlook. A healthy J.K. Dobbins can easily be a league winner in 2023.
Alexander Mattison
This could be the diamond in the rough for fantasy players drafting early this spring and summer. Minnesota can save six million dollars this offseason by letting go of Dalvin Cook, who is coming off of surgery for his torn labrum and is due $14 million next year.
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah didn’t say ‘yes’ when the question was asked if Cook would be on the roster in 2023. Overall, that could be a sign that he is gone and Mattison ends up the lead back.
The Vikings brought back Mattison this offseason on a two-year deal worth seven million. It shows Minnesota believes in Mattison and it could turn into them getting a starting running back on a very cheap deal.
When Cook has missed time, here are the numbers for Mattison’s six starts filling in for Cook.
- 23.3 touches
- 115.5 total yards
- .83 touchdowns
- 18.5 fantasy points
The Vikings could bring in someone else in free agency(linked to David Montgomery before he signed with Detroit) or draft another running back. The price for Mattison isn’t any different from when people were taking him as the best handcuff in fantasy football.
I’m not sold on Cook staying in Minnesota and even if he does, he is already showing a decline. It’s worth a stab to draft Mattison at his price for upside in 2023. Go get him before the price goes up!
Tyler Allgeier
With talk of how good guys like Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker were as rookies in 2022, Tyler Allgeier has quietly flown under the radar. He had 1,035 rushing yards on the season, including 431 yards over his final four games.
He also ranked sixth among 45 qualifying running backs in Pro Football Focus’s rush grades and was also third in elusive rating. Allgeier put together an excellent rookie season that included a four-game stretch to end the year where he turned into the bell cow in the Falcon’s offense.
Arthur Smith’s offense has been notorious for being run-heavy. The only competition Allgeier is going up against right now is 32-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson and Caleb Huntley coming off a torn Achilles.
Atlanta has set up interviews with some rookies in this year’s draft including Bijan Robinson which could scare some people away. However, the Falcons have way too many other holes to fill before finding another running back.
Allgeier is an easy player to get behind in drafts with how low his ADP is at the moment compared to his workload. He might not be the flashiest pick in your drafts but the value you get for the upside he could bring makes it easy to hit the submit button on draft day.
I wouldn’t be surprised if his ADP goes way up if the Falcons don’t bring in any more competition after the 2023 NFL Draft. Don’t write off Allgeier when you are drafting in the middle rounds this year!
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