English Premier League – Best Bet for 12/28

While it may still be early in the season when it comes to where we stand in the league Manchester City ate currently trailing surprise team Arsenal by 5 clear points. If Arsenal takes care of business against West Ham, which I fully expect them to, then going into this game Manchester City will be trailing 1st place by 8 points. Continue reading for my best bet between Leeds United and Manchester City, which kicks off on Wednesday, December 27th at 3:00 PM ET.

Leeds United

While Leeds have surprisingly enjoyed a decent home record to the start of the season, Looking at the opponents they’ve faced it must be taken into consideration as part of the reason for their positive results. Between the seven opponents they’ve faced on their home turf, only one team has a positive Away GD and combine for a -37 Away GD.

• Wolves (-8 Away GD)
• Chelsea ( -4 Away GD)
• Everton ( -6 Away GD)
• Aston Villa (- 11 Away GD)
• Arsenal (+10 Away GD)
• Fulham (-3 Away GD)
• Bournemouth (-15 Away GD)

While Leeds has a good home GD they have benefited from a pretty soft early home schedule. Furthermore, I believe that to be one of the main reasons why they sit 15th and not farther down the table. Starting central midfielder Tyler Adams, who has 13 starts this year, will also be missing for Leeds.

Manchester City

Dating back to the beginning of last season, Manchester City following a loss has not dropped any points to teams not named Liverpool. Only one time have they not won the game after by less than two goals, which was 1-0 against Wolves in a game they recorded 3.5 xG. What stands out more is how City lost their most recent game on a 98th-minute shocking goal by Ivan Toney of Brentford.

While winning the Premier League is still more than achievable I can only expect that coach Pep Guardiola has it drilled into his team their current position in the table. With the addition of Erling Haaland, this is in my opinion the strongest Manchester City team I’ve ever seen, It’s a strong sign he will play in this game seeing him play 73 minutes in the EFL Cup match against Liverpool a few days ago.

Strengths and Weaknesses

My main concern for this game is what we have seen in the past and what hasn’t changed. Leeds remains a naive side when it comes to defending and has lost a combined 11-0 in the last two games to Manchester City. Having allowed a massive 50 combined shots. Leeds plays in a style that holds a high risk, high reward but when it comes to playing against a team like Manchester City when you’re only going to see 30-38% of the possession. It’s extremely hard to imagine Manchester City not being ahead by a minimum of 2 clear goal margin at full time.

If Arsenal takes care of business against West Ham United I can only expect the urgency to not drop points here to increase. Even if Leeds manages to find the net I see Manchester City scoring a minimum of 3 goals here. The odds are -113 on Heritage Sports and -127 on FanDuel, -130 on DraftKings.

Best Bet: 2 Units, Manchester City -1.5 (-113)

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