Fantasy Football AAV: Over and Undervalued Players – July Edition
In June, I wrote an article in which I identified two players from each position that I believed were over and undervalued in auction drafts, according to their AAV (Average Auction Value). Now in July, I bring you an update, once again according to the updated AAV data.
*Auction values represent a 12-team, PPR, Superflex league w/$200 budget.
Quarterbacks
Overvalued – Patrick Mahomes ($39)
Mahomes once again finds himself on my list of overvalued players. His price has actually gone slightly up since June ($38). He’s the third most expensive quarterback, over players such as Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts, all of whom can be had for significantly less. An argument could be made that all three have more upside than Mahomes this year. As I wrote previously, Tyreek Hill is a Dolphin and Travis Kelce will be 32 in October.
I’m not expecting Mahomes to have a bad season per se, but he finished 4th in total FPTS and 5th in FPTS/G last season and that was with Hill and a younger Kelce. I just can’t envision him doing better than last year from a fantasy perspective. Someone will want him just because he’s Patrick Mahomes. That’s fine. Let someone else use 20% of their budget to draft him. Be smarter with your money and target one of the players I mentioned above.
Overvalued – Trey Lance ($21)
Watching Trey Lance last year, one thing consistently stuck out: he has issues with his accuracy. He was fine throwing short-range passes but anything intermediate or deep was a problem. We all know the 49ers are a run-first offense and the team is projected to have one of the very lowest passing volumes. But anyone drafting Lance isn’t pinning their hopes on him consistently throwing for 3 TDs and 275 yards/game. They want those sweet, sweet rushing stats, which I totally understand.
In terms of current AAV, Lance and Derek Carr are both priced equally and Kirk Cousins is a few dollars cheaper. Carr and Cousins each provide tremendous upside this year and, I’d argue, a higher, more stable, weekly floor. In a Superflex league, I wouldn’t advocate Lance being your QB1 and anyone drafting him regardless needs to prepare for what is likely to be a season of fantasy peaks and valleys.
Undervalued – Jameis Winston ($8)
Though he only played in seven games last season, Winston quietly had a very nice run. He posted a 5-2 record, threw for 14 TDs, only 3 INTs, had 24 rushing yards/game, and averaged 17.2 FPTS/G, right behind Russell Wilson. Let us not forget that in 2019, Winston led the league in passing yards (5,109) and passing attempts (626).
The Saints added Chris Olave in the draft, Jarvis Landry in free agency, and should have Michael Thomas back. All of this, plus a great defense, bodes extremely well for Winston and his fantasy stats. Paying $8 for your Superflex QB can be dicey. Paying $8 for a Superflex QB when it’s Winston is a sure bet.
Undervalued – Davis Mills ($2)
Mills’ numbers last year were nothing to write home about. He was about as vanilla as could be. He only averaged 12.8 FPTS/G but, surprisingly, that was ahead of players like Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Tyler Huntley. The Texans improved their offensive line this offseason and added WR John Metchie III and RB Dameon Pierce in the draft. WR Nico Collins should build upon his rookie season and the Texans also have one of the most underrated WRs in Brandin Cooks (more on him, later).
If you’re someone who likes to go bargain hunting for QBs, you do a lot worse than the $2 AAV Mills is currently sitting at. Garbage time points still count and the Texans should be playing catch-up quite a bit this year. Mills would be a rock solid bye-week filler and your team’s third quarterback.
Rookie John Metchie III will miss the 2022-2023 season.
Running Backs
Overvalued – Derrick Henry ($40)
Derrick Henry isn’t human. I think we can all agree on that. The guy has been one of the best RBs in the NFL the past four years and his rookie and sophomore seasons weren’t too shabby, either. I think Henry’s injury concerns have gotten a little out of hand, plus, he’s still only 28. What does concern me are the changes the Titans have made this off-season. They lost A.J. Brown and their offensive line got considerably worse with Rodger Saffold moving onto Buffalo.
Last year, the Titans gave up the seventh most sacks and now, are relying on mostly untested players along their line. I don’t foresee them being able to open up as many lanes for Henry as they once did and on top of all that, he’s a non-factor in PPR. He averages 20 targets/season and has never had more than 31.
I’m not expecting the Titans’ offense to be very good this year, which will likely limit Henry’s scoring opportunities and playing time. An AAV of $40 equals 20% of your total auction budget. Like Patrick Mahomes, Henry’s name will have value to someone. Let one of your friends in your home league pay for it.
Overvalued – Najee Harris ($36)
Many of the concerns I outlined above for Derrick Henry, I also have for Harris. The Steelers already had a putrid offensive line last season and, somehow, it’s gotten even worse. What saved Harris last season was pure volume. He had the second most rushing attempts (307), only behind Jonathan Taylor, and tied Austin Ekeler for the most targets (94). ‘
Fantasy managers should expect both of those statistical thresholds to decrease, especially Harris’ target share. George Pickens, the team’s second-round wideout, only adds more completion for targets in the Steelers’ offense.
Harris’ 3.9 yards/attempt was also very poor and his shoddy offensive line will not help matters. A low projected passing volume, more competition for targets, a terrible offensive line, and a team led by Mitch Trubisky and/or rookie Kenny Pickett isn’t a recipe for success. Players like Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, or Leonard Fournette can all be had for less and I’d take any of them over Harris.
Undervalued – Rashaad Penny ($8)
You may be thinking, “Hang on a second, Adam. Seattle’s offensive line could be the league’s worst, their starting QB is either going to be Geno Smith or Drew Lock and, they’re probably not going to throw very much either, so what gives?!” As much as $32, that’s what gives. $32 is the difference in AAV between Henry and Penny. I’m not going to try and convince you that Rashaad Penny is anywhere near the talent of Derrick Henry.
What I am suggesting is that Penny is a very good running back and a cheap one, at that! In 4 out of his last 5 games, he averaged almost 27 FPTS/G and 21.5 touches. Those are league-winning numbers for a fraction of the AAV of Henry or Najee Harris.
Reports out of Seattle are that Penny is in line for a workhorse-type role this season. Health has always been Penny’s stumbling block and the Seahawks did draft Kenneth Walker III in the second round. But auctions are all about extracting value. Should Penny remain healthy and hold onto the starting job, he’s in line for a sizeable workload. His AAV makes him a player you should be targeting as no worse than a strong RB3/Flex play with RB2 potential.
Undervalued – Nyheim Hines ($2)
I’ve got two words for you: Matt. Ryan. The undisputed check-down king. Over the last two seasons, no QB has checked the ball down to his RBs more than Matty Ice. A whopping 110 times! He is also fourth in check-down percentage over that span with 9.3%. You can see where I’m going with this.
Last season with Carson Wentz, Nyheim Hines was tied for 9th in targets with 57. Things are pointing up for Hines. The Colts were playing with the lead a lot last season and used Jonathan Taylor late to run out the clock. I’m expecting their games to be more competitive this year and that sets up positive game scripts for Hines.
Hines only scored 3 total TDs last season and I think it’s very likely he bests that. In PPR leagues, I think Hines will make a fine, weekly Flex play. I’m expecting him to put up roughly 7 FPTS/G. Think J.D. McKissic last year.
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Wide Receivers
Overvalued – D.K. Metcalf ($18)
Substandard QB play, low passing volume, and an atrocious offensive line. Sound familiar? Yep. We’re talking the Seahawks, again. There’s no denying that D.K. Metcalf is an ultra-talented WR. If Aaron Rodgers was his QB, instead of Geno Smith or Drew Lock, Packers fans such as myself, would be giddy. There’d also be no question: Metcalf would be ranked as the WR1.
Sadly, Smith or Lock will be his QB and there’s not much to get excited about. Metcalf’s AAV has been steadily falling since March and it’s not hard to see why. An AAV of $18 for Metcalf isn’t outrageous by any means but Jaylen Waddle‘s AAV is also $18 and both Michael Pittman‘s ($16), and D.J. Moore‘s ($15) are less. All are in better positions to succeed and have much higher ceilings. I can’t view Metcalf as anything more than a WR3.
Overvalued – Diontae Johnson ($16)
You could take 95% of what I wrote about D.K. Metcalf and copy and paste it right here. The two teams have shockingly similar situations. Really the only difference is, is that Johnson’s AAV is a bit lower. It doesn’t, however, move the needle for me. You could argue that Metcalf has an easier path to targets than Johnson does.
Johnson has to contend with Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. Michael Pittman‘s AAV is the same as Johnson’s. Give me Pittman over Johnson, any day this year. D.J. Moore‘s AAV is also less and so are Terry McLaurin‘s and Allen Robinson‘s (both, $14). I would gladly have any of those guys on my team over Johnson this season. Hopefully next year, his circumstances improve.
Undervalued – Marquise Brown ($12)
Typically in fantasy football, you want to draft players on high-scoring teams, and having your players in the best situation to score a lot of points makes perfect sense. Thus, we come to Marquise Brown. Brown is already in a great situation playing for the Cardinals. The team ran just over 65.5 plays/game, the 8th most last year.
Playing in the AFC West, a high-tempo, explosive division, also bodes extremely well for Brown’s fantasy outlook. Last year, teams in the AFC West averaged 26.5 points/game, the 8th most in the NFL. Coupled with DeAndre Hopkins‘ six-game suspension, everything is pointing towards a very good fantasy season for Brown.
I believe when the season is over, Brown’s fantasy numbers will have him in firmly entrenched the WR2 conversation and in a tier with the likes of D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin, both of whom not only have higher AAVs than Brown but far less talented QBs throwing them the ball. Brown is a perfect example of a WR2 going for WR3 prices.
Undervalued – Brandin Cooks ($11)
I told you we’d get back here. Brandin Cooks may just be the most underrated and undervalued WR in the NFL. The dude has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. If you take away his rookie year and 2019 (multiple concussions, 2 missed games), he’s averaged 1,130 yards and 6.8 TDs.
Yet somehow, Cooks is being neglected again in fantasy drafts. You could argue that the Texans’ offense is pretty anemic and they don’t score a lot of points (16.5 last year, 30th overall), but even in those circumstances, Cooks has put up good numbers. In his two seasons in Houston, he’s averaged 126 targets, 1,093 yards, and 6 TDs.
I would take that any day for a player you could get as your WR3. Remember garbage time points count and while I don’t all of a sudden see the Texans becoming an offensive tour de force, I’m betting your league mates mostly forget about Cooks. Even at his current AAV, he is a steal. Anything below that is grand larceny.
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Tight Ends
Overvalued – Mark Andrews ($25)
Like Mahomes, Mark Andrews not only makes my overvalued list again but has also seen his AAV increase from last month ($24). I love Mark Andrews the player. I’m not just particularly thrilled with his situation. Baltimore passed 35.9 times/game last season, 9th most in the NFL. That was more per game than the Packers, Cardinals, or even the Bengals! Consider that a major outlier for the Ravens’ passing volume. The team has made it clear: they want to get back to running the ball. Lamar Jackson is healthy and bulked up this off-season.
The extra mass Jackson added to his frame should be a clear signal as to exactly what the team intends to do. There’s no doubt that when Jackson does drop back to pass that Andrews will be where he looks to first. But if you go back and read my June AAV article, you’ll see that Andrews’ stats with Jackson as his QB don’t exactly jump off the page. Andrews is a prime candidate for major regression this year. I wouldn’t necessarily fault anyone for drafting him but if you do, don’t bet on his stats from last season carrying over.
Overvalued – T.J. Hockenson ($9)
Since T.J. Hockenson was drafted by the Lions, 8th overall in 2019, a lot of fantasy managers have been anxiously waiting for a true breakout year. Before a thumb injury derailed his season last year, it looked as though 2021 was going to be it. Through week 12, Hockenson had 84 targets, nearly 600 receiving yards, and 4 TDs. He was on pace for almost 120 targets and 86 receptions. Both would have been 3rd most, only behind Kelce and Andrews.
The Lions added D.J. Chark in free agency and drafted Jameson Wiliams 12th overall. Even if Williams misses the first 4 weeks of the season on the PUP, he and Chark are still likely to see ~50 targets each. And don’t forget about Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift, who had 119 and 78 targets last year, respectfully.
What this boils down to is more competition for targets for Hockenson. A $9 AAV isn’t terrible by any means for a player like Hockenson but I think I’d rather draft a player like Zach Ertz ($6), who is playing on a much more potent Cardinals offense, or both guys on my undervalued list.
Undervalued – Hunter Henry ($2)
Hunter Henry flew a bit under the radar last year and put together a pretty decent fantasy season. He had 75 targets (15th most), 603 yards (13th), 9 TDs (T-1st), and 10.3 FPTS/G (12th). And Henry did this on a team that threw the ball the 8th fewest times/game.
Because the team’s WR corps isn’t chockfull of superstars, I don’t anticipate the Patriots needing or even wanting to throw a lot more than they did last year. They’re more likely to stick to a primarily run-first approach. If you miss out on or simply decide the top-tiered TEs are too costly for your liking, Henry is a fine option at the end of your draft that probably won’t cost you much and could very well sneak back into the top-12.
Undervalued – Gerald Everett ($0 – $1)
In the more than a dozen mock drafts I’ve conducted since March, Gerald Everett has gone undrafted in half of them! The Chargers had the third-highest number of pass attempts/last year, only behind Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Not to mention, Jared Cook is a free agent and 35 years old. It’s hard to see the Chargers bringing him back.
Justin Herbert targeted TEs on 21% of his passes last year, which was right at the league average. Drafting Everett is a low-risk, high-reward prospect. He’s in a great offense, playing with one of the best young QBs in the game, and will be the team’s #1 TE. A career year could be on the horizon for Everett and he’s a player that could have all the makings for a huge ROI for your team. Heck, you may not even need to spend anything at all!
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