Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 18

We made it! We’ve reached the end of the NFL regular season and the end of fantasy football leagues. Many managers are celebrating triumphant victories with trophies and glory, many other managers are wallowing in disappointment and despair, and most managers have already moved past this season.  Additionally, some managers play in leagues that extend their championship to Week 18. While I may not agree with that format, those managers nonetheless want and/or need help in the biggest way to have their chance at securing a title.

Thankfully, my Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is here to finish the year strong, helping you to find gold in the mines of the weekend. Week 18 is crunch time for NFL franchises desperate to punch their ticket to the playoffs. This means that many teams will be highly motivated to put their best effort forward, grinding for every yard and point. But not all the teams playing this weekend will have that same intensity and drive. Some teams have already claimed their seat in the tournament, and are looking beyond the events of Week 18.

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As a fantasy manager navigating a lineup in that landscape, you must make yourself aware of who is in, who is out, and who needs to win. This is one of the main reasons why many fantasy leagues opt for a Week 17 championship, to avoid this ambiguous constraint. Regardless, it’s incumbent upon the fantasy manager to consider a team’s motivation in Week 18 before deciding on starting players in your lineup.

For example, managers will be preparing for this weekend without Christian McCaffrey since the 49ers just clinched the #1 seed in the NFC and have no reason to rush out their superstar, especially when he exited Week 17 early with a calf injury. It was reported that San Francisco will keep him out Sunday and give him their bye week to heal up for the Divisional Round. That’s a hard pill to swallow since he helped carry your team to the big show, but now you won’t even have him when it matters. It’s tough, but that’s the folly of a Week 18 championship.

Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 18

My Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week won’t deal with that question of motivation. Instead, this matchup will be fought tooth and nail by both teams because they’re both on the cusp of a playoff berth. There are certainly some other high-profile matchups like the Bills @ Dolphins and the Rams @ 49ers, but neither game is a lock for both teams to play at 110%. I also like the Steelers @ Ravens to be high-scoring, but with Baltimore solidifying their #1 seed, their starters may sit. I don’t want to have to deal with that headache if I don’t have to, which is why my Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is the…

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

This AFC South showdown features the 9-7 Colts as the 7th seed and the 9-7 Texans as the 8th seed in the AFC. Both teams are facing a “win and in” situation with the AFC South up for grabs if they get help from a Jacksonville loss or tie.  Needless to say, both teams will be highly motivated to put up points in the final week of the regular season. For the last time this season, let’s see what the options look like at each position:

Quarterbacks

CJ Stroud returned from a two-week absence with a modest 213-1 line en route to a critical victory against the Titans last week, putting them in a solid position to win their way in. He’s another week removed from his concussion, and now he can focus on this upcoming week of preparation, not recovery. Stroud burst onto the NFL scene in Week 2 when he faced the Colts for the first time where he put up 384 yards and two touchdowns. This week, I expect Stroud to return to his impressive rookie form. I would trust Stroud as a solid, backend QB1 over Jordan Love, Sam Howell, and Kyler Murray.

Gardner Minshew continues to get the job done for Indianapolis. He led the Colts to a 3-point victory over Las Vegas on Sunday, completing 65% of his passes for 224 yards and one touchdown. It wasn’t a spectacular fantasy game by any means, but the game script called for a run-heavy approach, and Minshew did his part to move and protect the ball. In Week 2 when the Colts and Texans last met, Minshew came off the bench and threw for 171-1,  sporting an 82% completion rate. Four months later, Minshew is in full command of this offense and will be up to the task of going toe to toe with Stroud. Consider Minshew a solid streaming option to replace a Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, or any other questionable signal callers.

Running Backs

Going into the final week of the regular season, the Texans have made it clear that Devin Singletary is the guy that they want to ride into the playoffs. He out-touched (19-9) and outgained (86-21) Dameon Pierce last week and again was involved in the passing game (3 catches). This week, Singletary gets to go to work against an Indy rush defense that gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs. I like Singletary to handle 18+ touches in this game with a good chance to get into the endzone. He’s an RB2 who I’d play over Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon.

In case it needs to be said, Pierce is a hard pass in all situations.

It’s great to see Jonathan Taylor back to being healthy. His season has been marred with injuries, so his overall season numbers may not bear it out, but Taylor has been solid, especially down the final stretch of games. He put up 21-96-1 against the Raiders in a favorable game script. This week, he faces the Texans who are middle-of-the-pack (17th) in fantasy points given up to running backs. With McCaffrey out, and a slew of other Week 18 uncertainties, Taylor is an elite RB1 option that you weren’t sitting in the first place. Start ’em up!

Zach Moss is not even in the desperation flex category with his forearm injury. Regardless of his status, don’t play Moss.

Wide Receivers

Houston Texans

Stroud’s favorite target in this offense is Nico Collins, and that reality might be amplified dramatically if his fellow receivers can’t get healthy for Saturday. Collins caught seven of eight targets last weekend for a modest 80 yards while adding a seven-yard rush to his stat line. Collins may be forced to take all he can handle, making him a spectacular play this week. I like Collins as a high-end WR2. He’s in my lineup over Chris Olave, Calvin Ridley, and Stefon Diggs.

Noah Brown and Robert Woods are two peas in a pod who might be on the shelf for the final game of the season. Both receivers suffered hip injuries and exited the game early, and both receivers kicked off this week of practice with an estimated DNP. There are fantasy points to be had from a secondary Texans receiving option, but it’s too hard to decipher who it would be if either, both, or none of Brown or Woods plays, in addition to John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson waiting in the wing. I don’t want to play Guess Who with this decision, so I’m avoiding them altogether.

Indianpolis Colts

Michael Pittman Jr. has been the epitome of a WR1 for the Colts all season. He leads the team in all the relevant wide receiver categories, and he set new career highs in receptions (104) and yards (1,108) in a season with one more contest to go. He gets a terrific opportunity to pad those stats even more in this divisional grudge match. I can easily see Pittman getting double-digit targets in this middling matchup against wide receivers (15th). Play Pittman Jr. as a WR2 with WR1 upside in full PPR formats. I have Pittman Jr. just behind Collins on the other side.

There was a lot of hope for Josh Downs to play up to his opportunity, but it simply hasn’t panned out this season. He has flashed a few times, but has never been a consistent fantasy force that you have to get into your lineup. You can’t trust Downs with your championship at stake, so stay away.

If I were to play a Colts receiver not named Pittman Jr., it would be Alec Pierce.  Last week, Pierce caught his only target for a 58-yard touchdown bomb, easily surpassing anything Downs has done since Week 7. Now obviously you can’t count on Pierce connecting on a bomb touchdown every game, but at least I know with him that I’m going to get valuable, downfield targets. That, to me, is better than a handful of mediocre looks in the middle of the secondary. Pierce has an upside; Downs has a stable, low floor. I’d consider Pierce only if I’m a big underdog and need the explosiveness to come through. Pierce is more likely to do that than Downs.

Tight Ends

If I had to describe Dalton Schultz‘s season in one word, it would be mystifying. Schultz has done nothing but show he can be a reliable pass catcher in the middle of the field all season long, yet he has games where he disappears and busts completely. He has had a game with only one catch for two yards, and he has had a game with ten catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. There’s no rhyme or reason to when he disappears and when he goes off, but with that range of outcomes in his repertoire, he’s hard to trust, even in a possible shootout. I’d try to find a more consistent option if possible.

Part of the reason for Schultz’s inconsistency has to be due to the surprising play of tight-end-mate Brevin Jordan. Jordan’s numbers aren’t electrifying, or even playable on their own, but the more he’s involved, the less Schultz is. That means that when both tight ends are healthy and active, neither are reliable options to start. I’d still play Schultz over Jordan, but I’d be looking for a Tucker Kraft, Juwan Johnson, or Kyle Pitts on waivers to plug in instead.

Indianapolis’ tight end room has been crowded all year long, and with one final week remaining, clarity has unfortunately not presented itself. Kylen Granson, Mo-Alie Cox, Will Mallory, Andrew Ogletree, and Jelani Woods are all involved (when healthy) at various times for various reasons. Unless you have an insider in the Colts organization who can shed light on this situation, you’re better off playing the waiver wire and finding a solo artist on their team. That’s more assured than trying to identify the Justin Timberlake of this boy band. Refer to the tight-end waiver options listed just before for better plays.

This Texans-Colts matchup might not jump off the page in this Week 18 landscape, but you can be sure that both teams will play their hearts out for their chance to be admitted to the tournament. The AFC South is still up for grabs, and I expect a light show to unfold that will shape the Wild Card round, and possibly beyond. For additional analyses and rankings to help you take home all the marbles, please visit fffaceoff.com. After your season is over, we’ll still be posting articles and podcasts with reflections, dynasty content, and player outlooks for 2024. Follow us @fffaceoff, or me @WSFilosofee to stay up to date throughout the entire offseason. Good luck and high scoring!

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