Welcome back to another edition of PrizePicks Best Bets in the NFL. In this series, I’ll be covering some of the top player prop bets that you should be targetting on PrizePicks. With the 2023-2024 NFL regular season winding down, it’s time to dig into our free best bets for Week 18.
As always, there’s plenty of value to take advantage of on PrizePicks this week. With Week 18, there may be some players who aren’t getting a full workload to stay healthy for the playoffs. If you’re new to PrizePicks, be sure to sign up today and get in on the action. With that, I’ll be breaking down my favorite player prop bets to target this week. Let’s get into it.
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PrizePicks Free Best Bets for NFL Week 18
Baker Mayfield Over 223.5 Passing Yards (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
First up for Week 18 is Baker Mayfield, coming off a rough loss at home against the New Orleans Saints. Despite the loss, he still ended up going over 300 passing yards and threw for two touchdowns. Now, the Buccaneers are in a must-win matchup against the Panthers who have nothing to play for at this point. All things considered, they’d be better off losing to get a better draft pick in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft.
In the last three games he’s played, Mayfield has thrown for 381, 283, and 309 passing yards. However, he did only throw for 202 yards in Week 13 when they played the Panthers. That being said, the Buccaneers have everything to play for this week and desperately need to bounce back after missing out on clinching the NFC South last week against the Saints. Look for Mayfield to lean heavily on his weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton. Additionally, he’ll lean on Rachaad White out of the backfield as well, who has been a great check-down option. Don’t count Mayfield out yet and look for Tampa to bounce back in Week 18.
CeeDee Lamb Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (1U)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Speaking of having nothing to play for in Week 18, the Washington Commanders are already eliminated from the playoffs. However, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys do have plenty to play for this week. That being, the NFC East title.
Despite the 10-1 start to the season, the Philadelphia Eagles no longer have a good chance of winning the NFC East. For that to happen, they’d need to beat the Giants and the Cowboys would need to lose to Washington. As stated previously, the Cowboys still have everything to win for this week.
With that, CeeDee Lamb should still be heavily involved, even if it’s just for the first three quarters or so. If the Cowboys get up by a lot, I could see them sitting their starters for part of the second half, or at least the fourth quarter. However, these NFC East divisional matchups can get chippy, even if it’s against a weak Washington defense with nothing to play for.
Don’t be surprised if Lamb racks up his 9th 100+ receiving yard game this week. Washington is still one of the easiest matchups on paper for both opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers in the NFL this year. Despite only going for 4/9 for 53 yards and a touchdown previously when they played Washington this year.
Bijan Robinson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (1U)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
After a surprising road win over the Buccaneers in Week 17, the New Orleans Saints can still technically make the playoffs. For that to happen, they’d need to win at home against the Falcons and the Buccaneers would have to lose to the 2-14 Panthers. While the odds aren’t good, they can still technically win the division, so they’re going to give it everything they have this week. More importantly, the Falcons can also still win the NFC South and make the playoffs. Technically.
The Saints have been one of the toughest matchups on paper for opposing running backs this year. Rookie Bijan Robinson for the Falcons has shown a ton of promise but doesn’t always get the workload you’d like for him to get. However, the last time they played the Falcons was in Week 12, where he put up 91 yards on 16 carries and two total touchdowns. Look for Desmond Ridder and the Falcons to put up a fight with the division still up in the air. Most importantly, look for the Falcons to give their talented rookie all the work that we’ve been hoping for.
Robinson has hit the over on this prop in his last two matchups. In what should be their most important game of the season, I’d be amazed if Robinson didn’t see 15 or 20 carries this week. Look for Robinson to hit the over on this player prop bet against the Saints, just like he did last time they played.
