Fantasy Football Week 13 Consistency Corner

Week 12 was rough in the NFL. Just as rough for fantasy football managers. If you still have your No.1 running back available to you, congratulations are in order. For the rest of us, we suddenly have a gaping hole in our starting lineups and a lot of question marks at running back.

There is some data, including my Consistency Score (CS) though that can help us get through this trying time. So let’s break it down in Fantasy Football Week 13 Consistency Corner.

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Fantasy Football Consistency Risers

Matt Breida – 63 to 58

Putting your trust in any Buffalo Bills running back feels a little like you’re juggling with steak knives. But with so many big-time running backs set to miss Week 13, at least, it’s time to get a little daring. And if you’re going to put your trust in any of them, it should be Matt Breida.

Since returning to the Bills lineup, Breida has increased his offensive snap count from eight to 18 and finally to 21 in Week 12. That was good for about 32% of the snaps to Devin Singletary‘s 68%. Zack Moss was a healthy scratch. The fact that the snap count has gone up three weeks in a row, and the Bills feel comfortable with just a two-back committee and left Moss on the sideline though, is a very good sign for Breida moving forward.

His opportunities have increased for the past three weeks in a row as well. Going from six total opportunities in Week 10, to seven in Week 11, and finally 11 this past week. Despite Singeltary getting nearly double the offensive snaps, he barely out-touched him, with only 16 total opportunities going his way. And he didn’t do anything with those added touches to keep Breida from earning more.

More Matt Breida: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire  Week 13

Singeltary rushed for only 2.93 per carry and caught his lone target for a whopping four yards. Breida on the other hand underwhelmed in total usage but eluded a number of defenders on a screen in the fourth quarter to get in the end zone. His 29 receiving yards on two catches shows just how valuable a piece of this offense he could be, and continued to look like the more explosive back on this team. His 55 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown was good enough to make him the 15th running back on the week.

In two of his last three games, since returning from injury, Breida has scored double-digit fantasy points. His CS is on the rise, along with his snaps and opportunities. Not to mention he is on a high-powered offense with a phenomenal young quarterback under center. Now he plays host to the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have the seventh-highest D-PAC score against the RB potion.  Breida is a great pivot if you just lost your RB1.

Darnell Mooney – 38 to 33

In a short five-day turnaround, Darnell Mooney was able to reward fantasy football managers with two 100+ yard performances in that time span. In his last three games, Mooney has scored an average of 18.23 fantasy points per game, 10 targets per game, 95 yards per game, and has found the end zone in two of the three weeks as well.

He has also finished as the third, fifth, and 13th best fantasy receiver in the past three contests.

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In Allen Robinson‘s absence, it’s clear that Mooney is the best weapon in Chicago’s offense. And to be honest, I think that holds true even after Robinson returns.  His ability to keep producing at this level might be more tied to Andy Dalton starting under center than it does to Allen Robinson being on the field. In games where Dalton has thrown double-digit pass attempts, Mooney averages nearly two fantasy points per game more than when Justin Fields has been under center.

In Week 13 the Arizona Cardinals travel to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears. This isn’t the worst defensive matchup for Mooney, but it isn’t the best either. On the season, their D-PAC vs receivers ranks 14th (15.86) and they average 33.12 points per game to the position. However, the Mooney dominating the targets share with 41% of all targets over the past two weeks, he should still have plenty of opportunities to produce. Fantasy Football managers should consider Mooney a WR2 from here on out.

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Fantasy Football Consistency Fallers

Kareem Hunt – 17 to 26

Even with the game flow working in Kareem Hunt‘s favor, his usage is still greatly underwhelmed in his first game action since Week 7.  Despite being behind the entire game, and no more Odell Beckham, Hunt only got one receiving target and rushed the ball a mere seven times. His 20 total yards clearly disappointed fantasy football managers.

There is reason for optimism for a back who is known for his involvement in the passing game, on a team seriously devoid of pass catchers. But the Browns as a whole is should worry managers. The Browns 21.2 points per game ranks 19th. Their 30 offensive touchdowns rank 17th. And their 2,484 passing yards rank 21st in the NFL. Not particularly signs for success for a back whose main role is receiving.

The Browns are on their bye week in Week 13 though. So perhaps they can take that time to work Hunt into a bigger role in this new post-Beckham offense. That would be good news for fantasy managers, as well as the Cleveland Browns honestly.

George Kittle – 4 to 9

Alas, gone are the days where George Kittle used to put a whole fantasy football roster on his shoulders and carry you to a weekly victory. Now we find ourselves in an era where Kittle is just as apt to disappear in this offense as he is to be the focal point. This is borderline confusing since there are relatively few and unknown pieces not named Deebo Samuel on the 49ers.

In Week 12 Kittle saw just two of Jimmy Garoppolo‘s 26 pass attempts. That would have been unheard of in years past. And honestly feels like a mistake for this team.

Kittle can still blow up and be a positional advantage at tight end, with a ceiling of 17.1 fantasy points. But due to the run-heavy nature in San Fransisco, and the way this offense is built this year, he is, to some degree, just another tight end.

Despite that high ceiling, his per-game average is only 9.36 fantasy points per game this year. The average of top-12 tight ends for the year is 13.23. The average for the top-32 tight ends is 8.15. So he’s right in between those two marks. Probably in the 15 to 16 range. Which is exactly where he ranks in total fantasy points on the season as well, 15th (59.4).

Stream of the Week

Taylor Heinicke – Rostered in 40% of Leagues

Since Week 5 Taylor Heinicke is averaging 35 passing attempts per game. He’s also got red zone favorite, Logan Thomas, another week healthier from that hamstring injury. And to top it all off, the Washington Football Team is playing the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13.

The Raiders have the seventh-highest D-PAC versus quarterbacks, 7.95, and they are averaging the eighth-most points per game, 18.44. On the year, they are allowing the ninth-most passing touchdowns, while being tied for the fewest interceptions.

This game has the third-highest over/under line (49.5) on the week currently. So there should be a decent amount of fantasy points to be had. Both defenses have shown they can be exploited this year. So there should be a lot of offense.  With Washington trusting the ball in Heikicke’s hands more as the season progresses, he becomes a very viable option in good matchups. And the Raiders are one of the better matchups to target.

Did you like this piece? Disagree? Drop me a line and let me know @DumpsterDiveFF and go ahead and follow for more fantasy football nuggets & all things Consistency Score related! If you’re a fantasy football content creator, please take advantage of the Consistency Score and use it in your content!

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