Fantasy Football Week 14 Consistency Corner
With many leagues kicking off their fantasy football playoffs, it’s not ideal that four teams are going onto their bye weeks. And if your playoffs aren’t starting already, it’s still a key moment in the season. With the stakes this high, combined with the bye weeks, finding consistent producers for your roster is critical. So let’s get into our Consistency Score (CS) and identify some players to target and who could be a trap this week with Fantasy Football Week 14 Consistency Corner.
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Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
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Consistency Score: DST
Fantasy Football Consistency Risers
Dontrell Hilliard – 75 to 53
Dontrell Hilliard is rostered in less than 50% of leagues so he’s widely available. And while a guy who still ranks in the 50’s might not seem like the key to fantasy football victory, when you have to have to replace a stud like Jonathan Taylor this late in the season, well beggars can’t be choosers.
In the two games Hilliard has played he has split total touches 50/50 with D’Onta Foreman, 28 to 28. But he has out-snapped Foreman 83 to 46 and has more total opportunities, 31 to 28. Digging into the numbers, it’s no wonder why. Hilliard looked more explosive in the Titan’s last game, where he racked up 133 yards and a touchdown. And the data backs that up. His +76 Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) is the second-highest among all players with 15 or more rush attempts. Foreman in comparison is only +28.
Over the past two weeks, the only two weeks Hilliard has been active, he has scored double-digit fantasy points, 12.2 and 17.8. Those two weeks he ranked 15th and 11th.
Even despite losing their offensive cornerstone in Derrick Henry, the Titans are still one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. On the season, they have 379 rushing attempts, the fifth-most in the league. That is going to translate into plenty of fantasy football opportunities for Hilliard, especially against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 8.5 point underdogs in this matchup. If you need a running back to fill in this week, go grab the guy leading his backfield in opportunities on a run-heavy offense who is projected to be in a very positive game script.
Elijah Moore – 45 to 37
Elijah Moore has slowly but surely been creeping up the CS rankings ever since Week 6. In recent weeks, Moore has been a Top-10 receiver for fantasy football in three out of the last five games. Including ranking first among all receivers in Week 9. his 3.14 CS is the highest it’s been all season.
Since their bye, Moore has averaged 15.16 fantasy points per game, 8+ targets per game, 67 yards per game, and 0.7 touchdowns per game. But over the past three games, he’s really been on fire. 10.3 targets per game, 88 yards per game, 0.66 touchdowns per game, and 16.83 fantasy points per game. His CS over that period of games would be 4.70, which would be the 16th highest among all receivers over that time span.
Our very own Aaron Schill found this stat. From Weeks 1 through Week 7 Moore was the WR 99 in fantasy football. From Weeks 8 through 13, he is the WR3.
It’s nerve-racking trusting a Jets offensive piece in fantasy football. But with the playoffs on the line and four teams on bye, at least Moore has a positive matchup. The Jets host the New Orleans Saints in Week 14. The Saints have the second-highest D-PAC score versus receivers (18.70) and are averaging the fifth-most fantasy points to the position (38.37). It really doesn’t get any better than that.
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Fantasy Football Consistency Fallers
Patrick Mahomes – 11 to 14
Patrick Mahomes is typically the name to chase in CS rankings. But he’s had a far more turbulent fantasy football season this year. Last season Mahomes was a QB1 in 67% of games played or 10 times in the season and finished as the QB4 on the year in total fantasy points with 374.4. So far this year he’s only been a QB1 50% of games and is the QB6 in terms of total fantasy points.
His 20.2 fantasy points per game are nearly five points less than last season’s 25 fantasy points per game. And he is currently on a 16 game pace (I know there are 17 games this season, but we’re comparing to last year) to throw more passes, but have a lower completion rate (64.7% to 66.3%), fewer touchdowns (33 to 38) and more interceptions (16 to 6). Hell, we’re only 13 weeks into the current season and he’s already doubled his interceptions from last year.
He clearly still has one of the highest ceiling capabilities in fantasy football. But his floor is much lower too. Mahomes has produced two games in the single digits for fantasy this year. Something he didn’t do even once in 2020.
If you drafted for Mahomes or traded for him, you’re not benching him clearly. But it’s a reality we have to face and construct your roster around him with some more steady production than maybe you thought you needed.
Jakobi Meyers – 37 to 51
Jakobi Meyers has flirted on the fringes of fantasy football relevance all season it seems. The 36th receiver in total fantasy points has a 2.58 CS that ranks well outside even the WR4 range. He hasn’t been a Top-12 receiver for fantasy football in even a single game this year and has only been a Top-24 receiver in less than a quarter of games played (23%). For the most part, he has lived in the WR4+ range, having ranked there in 62% of weeks this season.
The problem is, the New England Patriots are winning. I mean, they are first in their division. When that happens the fantasy football community wants a piece of that offense. However, as we all saw on Monday Night Football, the Patriots are A-OK winning by any means possible. Even if that means quarterback Mac Jones only has three, THREE, pass attempts all game.
Meyers has teased fantasy managers by stringing up enough double-digit performances to entice folks. But he quickly disappoints right after the community is foolish enough to trust him. The main contributors to his Consistency Score being so low are simple. Volume and touchdowns.
Meyers ranks 20th among all receivers in total targets, 90, but 42nd among all receivers in terms of red zone targets, seven. Surprisingly this trend is the opposite of the Patriots and Mac Jones’ trend. The Patriots’ 394 pass attempts are near the bottom of the ranking of volume, ranking 22nd in the NFL. Yet they’re trusting rookie Jones in the Red Zone, as he ranks 14th among all signal-callers in pass attempts inside the 20-yard line.
Meyers seems to be a “Between the 20s” receiver on a low-volume offense. Let’s all agree to stop frustrating ourselves and stop trying to trust Patriots receivers in the year 2021.
Stream of the Week
Taysom Hill – Rostered in 50% of Leagues
It’s actually surprising to me that Taysom Hill is available in 50% of leagues still. Despite throwing four interceptions Hill’s rushing for 101 yards on top of throwing for 264 and two touchdowns were enough to propel him to the QB6 and 20.66 fantasy points in his first game starting under center this season.
No, I haven’t forgotten that Hill injured his finger against Dallas. But he is still practicing and all indications point to him starting this week.
In Week 14 Hill takes on the New York Jets and this matchup couldn’t be any better for the biggest dual-threat quarterback in the NFL. The Jets have the third-highest D-PAC score versus quarterbacks, 9.26, and average the ninth-most points to the position, 18.38. But they also have the highest D-PAC score versus running backs, 17.15, and average the most fantasy points allowed to rushers, 35.63. Considering how Hill is used in this offense, with so many deliberate run plays (not just QB scrambles), we really need to look at how defenses are playing against passers and rushers. And the Jets seem hapless against both currently.
Taysom Hill against the Jets defense is one of the safest plays in all of fantasy football for Week 14.
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Consistency Score
- Consistency Score: Running Backs
- Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
- Consistency Score: Tight Ends
- Consistency Score: DST
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