Primetime NFL games have been insane and Monday Night Football was no exception this past week. Fantasy football matchups, seemingly safe going into the second half of that game, blew up and blew minds. And while Consistency Score champions like Mark Andrews and Josh Allen won folks their weeks, newcomers like Justin Herbert and Mike Williams cannot be ignored. So let’s get right into the numbers and who is rising or falling in this week’s Consistency Corner. Check it all out in Fantasy Football Week 6 Consistency Corner.
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Fantasy Football Week 6 – Risers
Darrell Henderson Jr. – 1 to 1
Last week was the first week I transitioned the data to 100% 2021 season and Darrell Henderson Jr. popped right to the top of the running back rankings. But since I had been a goober and forgot to update Cordarrelle Patterson to be running back eligible I really needed to highlight him. But I can’t wait any longer to talk about Henderson.
This guy has been a fantasy darling this year after Cam Akers went down. In the draft season, Henderson was the 26th running back taken on average and usually lasting until the late fourth/early fifth round. Now he’s the 15th running back in total points despite missing Week 3. He’s averaging 96 scrimmage yards, just under a touchdown per game, and 15.35 fantasy points per game. He’s yet to score less than 14 fantasy points thus far in 2021.
Part of Henderson’s success has to be contributed to the threat the Los Angeles Rams offense as a whole brings. He’s lined up against eight-man boxes on only 20% of snaps. That ranks 32nd among running backs and allows him ample space to work. He also has received some of the most work inside the red zone of any running back. He ranks 13th in carries inside the 20-yard line (12), 11th in carries inside the 10-yard line (seven), and sixth in carries inside the 5-yard line (five). And remember, he didn’t play Week 3.
The Rams head to MetLife Stadium in Week 6 to take on the New York Giants who are currently ranked seventh in D-PAC against running backs. They have been allowing an average of 27.60 fantasy points per week to the running back position, which also ranks seventh. The Giants just hemorrhaged 215 yards and two touchdowns to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard last week. Darrell Henderson is one of the safest plays available in Week 6.
Mike Williams – 19 to 12
Mike Williams is averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game (1st), already has 100.6 total fantasy points (1st), five receiving touchdowns (T-2nd), has been a top-24 wide receiver in 80% of games played, and has three top-10 fantasy finishes already on this season. He is currently averaging 10.2 targets per game and 94.2 yards per game. All of those numbers include his clunker Week 4 performance of four targets for one reception and 11 yards.
This level of involvement is incredible for the fifth-year receiver and paired with his ability to finally stay on the field (knock on wood) are the primary drivers of his steady rise in Consistency Score. For fantasy purposes, he has overtaken Keenan Allen as the number one receiver in this offense.
Week 6 will be a challenge for Williams and the Los Angeles Chargers. Sure points will be scored, this game has a 52.5 O/U line. But the Ravens secondary isn’t a great fantasy matchup. They rank 28th in D-PAC vs WR (10.48) and their average of 33.38 fantasy points allowed to the position ranks 23rd.
Fantasy Football Week 6 – Fallers
Adam Thielen – 17 to 24
After starting on fire in 2021 Adam Thielen racked up 25.7 fantasy points and was the fourth-best receiver in fantasy Week 1, followed up by a respectable 12.9 points in Week 2, and 14 points in Week 3. But for the past two weeks, Thielen has been in the single digits, 6.1 and 5 fantasy points respectively. What’s especially worrisome is the fact that in Week 5 he only received five targets, trailing not only Justin Jefferson and Alexander Mattison, but also Dede Westbrook and K.J. Osborn as well.
In a tough Week 6 matchup, try to look away from the struggling Thielen as he lines up opposite the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are ranked 25th in D-PAC vs WRs and 28th in average fantasy points allowed to the position (29.14). This is a bad matchup, to begin with, and Thielen needs far more targets to be a viable fantasy option.
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Revenge Game Tracker
Melvin Gordon – 14 to 21
Melvin Gordon has had a tumultuous fantasy season which is clear in his sliding consistency score. Week 1 looked great as he came out the gate strong with 19.3 fantasy points, which was the sixth-best to start the season. Week 2 was in the single digits, 7.9, he rebounded to 14.7 Week 3 and then posted under eight fantasy points in each of the last two weeks, 7.7 and 5.3.
A large part of Gordon’s inconsistency has to be attributed to the rookie Javonte Williams nipping at his heels. Even since Week 1, Gordon has been playing on just about 50% of the offensive snaps. For the young season, he has only been on the field for 54% of the team’s total offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Williams is seeing a 44% snap share.
But perhaps even more important is that not only is Melvin Gordon splitting time, but he is splitting all opportunities evenly as well. Gordon only has 51% of total running back touches, 70, to Williams’ 65. The work is an even split inside the red zone too.
If Gordon continues to lose those valuable touches to the rookie, his fantasy value is going to be impossible to predict on a weekly basis. Gordon is officially a desperate flex play at best right now.
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Fantasy Football Week 6 – Stream of the Week
Taylor Heinicke – Rostered in 32% of Leagues
Taylor Heinicke has been a welcome revelation for those of us who invested, perhaps too heavily, in the cheap Terry McLaurin and Ryan Fitzpatrick stack this year. Heinicke might only be the 18th quarterback in total fantasy points and in Consistency Score with a 6.56 CS. But he has also been a top-12 QB in 60% of games played thus far and kept McLaurin as a top fantasy receiver (12th overall in FP).
In Week 6 the Washington Football Team plays host to a 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs who are averaging over 30 points per game, but more importantly, are averaging over 32 points per game allowed to their opponent. This game currently has the highest over/under line at 55.5. There should be plenty of fantasy points to be had in this matchup, on both sides of the field. Currently, the Chiefs rank 5th in D-PAC vs QB (11.21), while averaging 28.08 points allowed to the position which is the most in the NFL. They are also ranked 4th in D-PAC vs WR (25.06). This means that it’s not just rushing quarterbacks taking advantage of this offense. But rather quarterbacks are doing it through the air.
Heinicke is going to need to air the ball out to keep up with the Kansas City offense and a scrumptious streaming option this week.
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