Free NFL Picks and Best Bets – Divisional Round (2024)
As quickly as the 2023 NFL season started, we’re already heading into the second round of the NFL Playoffs. With the Divisional Round Weekend kicking off, it’s time to get into some of our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week.
As we head into the Divisional Round, we saw a big-time upset on the NFC side last Sunday. The Green Bay Packers went on the road to AT&T Stadium and took down the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 behind a brilliant day from quarterback Jordan Love. Appearing in his first-ever playoff game, he completed 16 of his 21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdown passes. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.
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Free NFL Picks – Divisional Round
The Divisional Round is upon us. Before diving into the picks, how fun were Love and C.J. Stroud to watch last weekend? Dazzling in their playoff debuts, each player cemented their status as superstars and the next crop of great quarterbacks across the NFL. Brilliant in the Houston Texans victory over the Cleveland Browns, Stroud tossed for 274 yards and three touchdown passes. He became just the eighth rookie quarterback to win their first-ever playoff start in the Super Bowl era.
Matched by Love on Sunday, the 2020 first-round pick posted nearly the same stat line. Torching Dallas’ defense all afternoon long, he posted a near-perfect passer rating of 157.3. The Utah State product also became the first signal caller to post a 99 quarterback rating since 2006.
So, can the two young studs continue their recent stretch of dominance and carry their teams to the Conference Championship? Well, with a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers on deck, both players will have their work cut out for them against the two best clubs in the league all year long. However, we have all learned that when a team has a hot quarterback, you cannot count them out. Coming off a 3-3 week, here are the picks.
Houston Texans (+9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Houston is back in the Divisional Round for the first time since 2019. The team routed the Browns 45-14 behind the brilliance of Stroud. In addition to this, the Texan’s defense was able to stymie Joe Flacco and a red-hot Cleveland offense. They intercepted the 39-year-old quarterback on back-to-back plays in the second half while returning them for touchdowns.
The number one seed in the AFC, Baltimore finished with the top record in the NFL at 13-4. Led by the play of Lamar Jackson, the University of Louisville product blossomed under first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken. He completed a career-high 67.2 percent of his passes for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdown passes while leading the Ravens to the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL in terms of DVOA.
Having all the makings of a true Super Bowl contender, Baltimore can beat you both offensively and with its stout defense. Nonetheless, it is hard to count out Stroud and a Texans franchise that has shined all year when the lights are the brightest. Look for John Harbaugh’s group to win a competitive game. 9.5 points is too big a number.
Pick: Texans (+9.5)
Green Bay Packers (+10) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Arguably the hottest team in the NFL, the Packers handed the Cowboys their first home loss since week 1 of the 2022 season a week ago. Blowing out the NFC East Champions in a stunning fashion, Green Bay jumped out to a 27-0 first-half lead after a Darnell Savage pick-six of Dak Prescott.
San Francisco is coming off a bye. The 49ers locked up the number one seed following their week 17 win over the Washington Commanders. Once again one of the top offenses in the NFL, the team ranked second in total yards per game (398.4) and third in rushing yards per game (140.5) behind MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey. Set to face a Green Bay defense, that surrendered over 128 yards per game on the ground this season, expect the star running back to get going early in this one.
The odds on favorite by many to come out of the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, the 49ers are the far better group on paper in this matchup and head into Saturday night well rested. Nevertheless, behind the play of Love, Green Bay’s offense is playing hyper-efficient football. They can run the ball effectively and shrink San Francisco’s possessions.
Pick: Packers (+10)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) vs. Detroit Lions (-6)
Following the retirement of Tom Brady in the offseason, to the surprise of many, the Buccaneers are back in the Divisional Round for the second time in three years behind the resurgence of Baker Mayfield. Drubbing the Eagles on Monday Night, the former first-overall pick threw for 337 yards and three touchdown passes while overwhelming a struggling Philadelphia defense.
Keeping their magical season alive, the Lions built upon their NFC North Division crown by winning their first home playoff game in 30 years. The franchise ended a nine-game postseason losing streak. Detroit’s defense buckled down and made key stops in the red zone. They forced three Rams field goals on drives that ended at the Detroit 6-yard line, 9-yard line and 11-yard line.
Give credit to Todd Bowles and the rest of the Buccaneers coaching staff for getting their group this far. There is a path to a Tampa Bay victory here. Jared Goff should have more answers for the Buccaneer’s heavy blitzing gameplan. The Lions won the previous matchup between these two clubs 20-6 in week 6. Expect more of the same in this one.
Pick: Lions (-6)
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
The game of the weekend. It will be the seventh installment in the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen rivalry. Each quarterback has won three times. However, Mahomes has won both postseason matchups, including a 42-36 victory in the epic game in the Divisional Round in 2021.
This Kansas City team is far from the high-flying electric offenses they have produced in years past under Andy Reid. Be that as it may, on the heels of their 26-7 victory over the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs appear to have an emerging star in rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice. The SMU product caught eight passes for a career-high 130 yards and a touchdown in the win.
Still undefeated under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills have won six straight games. Able to get past the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round, Josh Allen tossed two touchdown passes. He also scored on a 52-yard scamper to push Buffalo onto the Divisional Round for the fourth season in a row. Buffalo finally developed a consistent run game behind the emergence of James Cook. They finished the season as the seventh-ranked team in terms of rushing DVOA. Setting up well against the Chiefs, despite their success at stymying opposing quarterbacks through the air, Steve Spagnuolo’s group allowed the ninth-highest yards per rushing attempt (4.4) this season.
With Mahomes playing on the road in the postseason for the first time in his NFL career, the time for the Bills to slay the Chiefs in the playoffs is now. In a back-and-forth classic, Allen will make enough plays to overcome a burden of injuries for Buffalo on defense and punch the team’s ticket to the AFC title game.
Pick: Bills (-2.5)
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