In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season, last Thursday we saw three games on Thanksgiving Day. This included the Green Bay Packers upsetting the Detroit Lions 29-22. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Free NFL Picks – Week 13

There are just six Sundays remaining in the 2023 regular season. December is officially upon us. Before we get into this week’s slate of games, I want to dive into the Carolina Panthers mess. Coming off a 17-10 loss to the struggling Tennessee Titans, owner David Tepper decided to fire Frank Reich just 11 games into his first season after a 1-10 start. He became the third head coach to be fired by Tepper since he took over the team in 2018. Additionally, Reich joins a list that includes Urban Meyer and Nathaniel Hackett as the only post-merger head coaches to be fired before their first year ended.

Teams on Bye: Ravens, Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Giants

So, where do the Panthers go from here? Well, by choosing to move on from Reich, an owner known for his impatience decided to scapegoat the 61-year-old. This was instead of addressing the fundamental flaw of Carolina’s roster: they haven’t surrounded Bryce Young with enough talent around him. Running for his life for the majority of the season, as we approach the three-quarter mark, the reigning number-one overall pick has been sacked 40 times, second to only Sam Howell.

Furthermore, after moving D.J. Moore to the Chicago Bears in the deal to trade up for Young, the Panther’s wide receiver core has struggled to maintain any consistent level of production. They rank 29th in the NFL in points per game (15.9) and 30th in passing yards per game (173.3). Looking to get right after a 1-3-2 week, here are the picks.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

The Steeler’s passing attack looked much improved in their first game after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Pittsburgh totaled 400 yards of offense for the first time in 59 games in their 16-10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Kenny Pickett led the way through the air. He tossed for a season-high 278 passing yards, averaging 7.7 yards per pass.

Arizona is still searching for their first win following the return of Kyler Murray from a torn ACL. The Cardinals fell 37-14 to their NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams. Unable to get Matthew Stafford and company off the field, the veteran quarterback tossed four touchdown passes, including two to tight end Tyler Higbee. Pittsburgh remains in the hunt for a wild card spot in the AFC. Even so Mike Tomlin and company have yet to be more than a three-point favorite this season. This feels like an overreaction line by oddsmakers to one good offensive showing. Take the points and roll with the Cardinals.

Pick: Cardinals (+6.5)

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

Fresh off a 29-12 loss to the red-hot Denver Broncos, the Browns exited the Mile High City with several significant injuries. This included a concussion to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. All eyes will be on Joe Flacco. The former Super Bowl champion was signed to the Browns practice squad earlier on in the month. He will start if Thompson-Robinson is out.

Once sitting at 3-6, Los Angeles is now one game below .500. The Rams remain hot on the heels of the Minnesota Vikings for the final wild-card spot in the NFC. Benefitting from the return of Kyren Williams in their rout of the Cardinals a week ago, the Notre Dame product rushed for 143 yards. He also hauled in two touchdown catches. Cleveland comes into this one amid a mounting list of injuries leading to a flurry of uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. They will not be able to keep up on the road against a Rams team that is beginning to roll.

Pick: Rams (-3.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

Arguably the most anticipated matchup of the year to date, the Eagles and 49ers will meet in a rematch of the NFC Championship game from a year ago. Winners of three in a row after their two-game losing skid, San Francisco is beginning to click on all cylinders. The team enters this one well-rested after knocking off the Seattle Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving night.

Philadelphia is continuing to find ways to win ugly. They stormed back to defeat the Buffalo Bills. After trailing by 10 at the halftime break, Jalen Hurts tossed three touchdown scores in the final 30 minutes. He also scored the game-winner on a 12-yard scamper in overtime. Nevertheless, despite their 10-1 record, seven of the team’s wins have come by one score. Furthermore, the Eagles continue to have problems in their secondary. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and Trent Williams are all fully healthy. The 49ers finally get their revenge from last January.

Pick: 49ers (-3)

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (+6)

Jordan Love is finally appearing to look like the quarterback of the future for the Packers. Nearly flawless in Green Bay’s win over the Lions, he completed 23 of his 32 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns. This was his finest game of the season to date. Over the last three weeks, Love ranks 2nd in EPA/play, third in big-time throws, and fourth in passer rating.

Still trying to find their identity on offense, Kansas City trailed by two touchdowns early on to the Las Vegas Raiders. Able to regroup in the second half, Isiah Pacheco found the end zone from one yard out to give the Chiefs a lead they would not relinquish. Remaining just one game back of the Baltimore Ravens for the number-one seed in the AFC, the Chiefs defense will pose quite a challenge for a young Packer’s team.

Even so, Matt Lafleur’s group has found new life with a shot at the playoffs. This was after appearing as if they were headed for a rebuild a few weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes finds a way to pull it out late, but this number seems way larger than it should be.

Pick: Packers (+6)

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans (O/U 47)

Denver is trying to become just the fifth team since 1990 to make the postseason after losing their first three games. The hottest team in the NFL, the Broncos have won five straight contests, including wins over the Chiefs, Packers, and Bills. Primarily due to the resurgence of their defense, Vance Joseph’s unit has forced 15 turnovers over the last month. Moreover, they are giving up just 16.5 points per matchup on average since week 6.

Houston fell short against the Jacksonville Jaguars for first place in the AFC South. After Doug Pederson’s team took a ten-point lead midway through the fourth quarter, the Texans closed the gap on a 17-yard touchdown reception by Nico Collins and had the chance to tie the game late in the final minutes. The team was forced to settle for a 58-yard field goal attempt by kicker Matt Ammendola, which bounced off the crossbar.

Once again impressive in the loss, C.J. Stroud tossed for 304 yards and two touchdowns to move past Justin Herbert for the most passing yards in NFL history by a rookie in his first 11 games. Both of these teams are in the thick of the AFC wildcard race, making this one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. In what looks to be a strong matchup for both defenses, Denver’s secondary should be able to limit Stroud and the Texans high-powered passing game and push this total below the number.

Pick: Under 47

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints (O/U 47)

Detroit stumbled against the Packers on a national stage on Thanksgiving day. Still on top of the NFC North at 8-3, Dan Campbell’s group is beginning to become surrounded by question marks. Following a strong start to the season, the Lion’s defense has given up 31 points per game on average over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the team has also turned the ball over seven times in their previous two games, with Jared Goff responsible for six.

New Orleans is returning home after being knocked off 24-15 by the Falcons in a battle for first place in the NFC South. The Saints out-gained Atlanta 444-396, with Derek Carr eclipsing 300 passing yards for the fifth straight game. However, the team struggled in the red zone, leading to five field goals from kicker Blake Grupe. In a battle between two franchises that features significant post-season implications, expect Detroit to bounce back in a get-right spot. Carr and the Saint’s offense should also be able to move the ball against a struggling Detroit secondary.

Pick: Over 47

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