In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season, we saw a blowout in one of the most anticipated games of the year last Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Miami Dolphins 56-19 behind five touchdown passes from current MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Free NFL Picks – Week 18

I cannot believe the final Sunday of the 2023 regular season is here. Before we dive into the picks for this week, I am amazed at all of the different playoff-clinching scenarios. Currently, only nine teams have locked up playoff births so far, leaving five spots up for grabs. Furthermore, four divisions have not yet been crowned champions: the AFC East, AFC South, NFC East, and NFC South.

Starting with the most unusual one of all, the Buffalo Bills could either lock up the number two seed in the AFC or miss the postseason completely. Yes, that is right. If Sean McDermott‘s team falls to the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans, Josh Allen and company will be left watching January football from home.

Meanwhile, how about the turnaround for the Green Bay Packers? Sitting at just 6-8 following their disappointing loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team now controls its destiny in the wild card chase in the NFC. That’s right. If the Packers knock off the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field, they will clinch a birth in the postseason. Here are the picks.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints (-3)

Coming off their best performance of the season against the Indianapolis Colts, the Falcons offense could not get anything going against the Chicago Bears. Behind a miserable three-interception performance from Taylor Henickie, Atlanta fell behind 14 points in the first half and never recovered en route to a 37-17 loss. With just a 17% chance to make the playoffs, Arthur Smith’s group will need to defeat the Saints. They must also hope the Carolina Panthers can play spoiler against the Buccaneers.

Just as it appeared the Saint’s postseason hopes were slipping away, the team spoiled Tampa Bay’s bid to clinch the NFC South a week ago. Hitting and harassing Baker Mayfield all game long, New Orleans intercepted the former first-overall pick twice while also forcing two fumbles. Atlanta is still mathematically alive for the postseason. Nonetheless, New Orleans owns a home-field advantage and a significant quarterback edge in this one. Look for them to grab a win and hope for an upset in Charlotte.

Pick: Saints (-3)

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Beaten down at the hands of the Packers on Sunday Night Football, the Vikings were dealt a significant blow to their playoff hopes. Opting to turn to rookie quarterback Jarren Hall, the BYU product struggled in just the second start of his career. He tossed an interception on his second pass attempt while also losing a fumble later in the half.

Detroit fell short against the Dallas Cowboys in a controversial finish. After Jared Goff found Amon-Ra St. Brown to cap off a 75-yard scoring drive to make it 20-19, Dan Campbell opted for a two-point conversion to try to win the game. However, after Goff connected with offensive lineman Taylor Decker in the end zone, they flagged the 30-year-old for illegal touching. Referee Brad Allen indicated that the veteran failed to report as an eligible receiver.

Regardless of their heartbreaking loss, the Lions still have a shot at the number two seed in the NFC. They must win and the Cowboys have to lose to the Washington Commanders later in the afternoon. Count on Campbell to motivate his team to put up a big-time performance in the regular season finale.

Pick: Lions (-3.5)

New York Jets (+2) vs. New England Patriots (-2)

After beginning the season surrounded by hope and expectations following their offseason acquisition of Aaron Rodgers, the Jets will aim to play for pride instead and snap their 15-game losing streak against the Patriots on Sunday. Knocked off by the surging Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football, Joe Flacco picked apart Robert Saleh’s defense. The one-time Super Bowl MVP passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns. This loss cemented a fourth straight season with double-digit losses for New York.

For the New England, there remains just one question. Will this be the final time we see Bill Belichick on the sidelines as the Patriots head coach? Many around the league beginning to speculate on the future of the 71-year-old. The Patriots will finish last in the AFC East for the first time in 23 years. They are also going to miss the postseason for the third time in four seasons.

Despite all of the speculation surrounding what the long-term future holds at 1 Patriot Place, expect Belichick to end his legendary tenure with the franchise on a high note against a Jets organization he truly does not like. In a low-scoring defensive battle, take the road team to cover against a New York group that cannot wait to put this nightmare season behind them.

Pick: Patriots (-2)

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. New York Giants (+5)

Once sitting atop the NFL at 10-1, the Eagles have dropped four of their last five games. This has led them to fall below the Cowboys in the race for the NFC East. Primarily due to their struggles on the defensive side of the ball, the team has given up 31 points per game over the last month. Furthermore, Philadelphia now ranks 27th in the NFL in defensive DVOA after ranking 3rd last season.

Still, just a year removed from a trip to the Divisional Round in the NFC Playoffs, the Giants were eliminated from playoff contention after their loss to the Eagles on Christmas Day. New York nearly played spoiler against the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday. A 31-yard run by Tyrod Taylor late allowed Mason Crosby to attempt a game-winning 54-yard field goal. Despite that, the kick came up short while sailing wide left.

Philadelphia is in desperate need of a strong performance as they look to build momentum heading into the postseason. Even so, New York has looked like a much better team with Taylor under center. Paired with the struggles of Philadelphia’s defense, look for the Giants to keep this one close.

Pick: Giants (+5)

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (O/U 48.5)

In game 272 of the 2023 regular season, the Bills travel to Hard Rock Stadium to square off against the Dolphins for the Division crown. Appearing as if their bid to capture the AFC East for the fourth consecutive year was lost midseason, Buffalo sat at 6-6 following their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. However, the team rattled off four consecutive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs, Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, and Patriots.

Aiming to bounce back after a thrashing by the Ravens, Miami enters Sunday surrounded by questions on the injury front. Already without star pass rusher Bradley Chubb after he suffered a torn ACL, the Dolphins also ruled out cornerback Xavien Howard due to a foot injury. Furthermore, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both questionable after missing last week. With the over-hitting in the last three meetings between these two clubs, lean on the under in this one on an inflated total as injuries finally begin to catch up to this Dolphins team.

Pick: Under 48.5

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (O/U 45)

Chicago jumped out to a disastrous start to begin the season. The franchise dropped four straight games and five of its first six to fall into the basement of the NFC. Be that as it may, the Bears have become one of the NFL’s hottest clubs over the last month. Led by Justin Fields, he threw for 268 yards and a touchdown in their win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Faced with a win and in scenario for the second straight season, the Packers will return to the postseason if they knock off the Bears at home after missing the playoffs a year ago. Giving themselves a chance thanks to a 33-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football, Jordan Love tossed for 256 yards while amassing four touchdown scores, three through the air and one on the ground.

The stage is set for another installment of the oldest rivalry in the NFL. Chicago has nothing to play for after being eliminated from the postseason race. Still, expect Fields to put up points as he makes his case to be the quarterback of the future.

Pick: Over 45

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