Garrett Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Fantasy Football Outlook
To say the quarterback play Garrett Wilson had to deal with in 2022 was abysmal is an insult to the word abysmal. We really can’t overstate the type of upgrade Wilson is getting from the abomination of Zach Wilson/Mike White/Joe Flacco/Chris Streveler to future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. There’s no debating the quarterback upgrade, but can Wilson reach the lofty expectations of eager drafters?
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Wilson proved he can command targets finishing with 147 last year. According to Fantasy Points, Wilson checked in with a targets per route run rate (TPRR) of 25%. For context — Justin Jefferson checked in at 27%. Fantasy points also showed that among receivers who drew 75+ targets, Wilson ranked 55th out of 64 qualifying receivers. Not to belabor the point, but, incredibly, Wilson was able to finish as WR21 despite playing with our aforementioned quartet of quarterbacks.
Right now, Wilson is currently the WR10 in our up-to-date fantasy football rankings for 2023.
There is an argument that Wilson is overpriced at his current FantasyPros average draft position (ADP) as the 10th receiver off draft boards. It’s a fair point, as the Jets did add receivers, Mecole Hardman and Allen Lazard. Neither of these players has proven to command targets at a high rate thus far in their careers.
We must also acknowledge that Rodgers’ play did fall off a bit last year. If Rodgers declines, it could be difficult for Wilson to justify his draft cost. But, according to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers checked in with an adjusted completion percentage of 75.8%. This was still significantly better than Flacco/Wilson/White. So, even a diminished Rodgers is a penthouse suite compared to the outhouse that was the 2022 Jets quarterback room.
Recently, Rodgers made some eye-opening comments regarding Wilson.
New Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is excited about building another explosive connection with a new #17, Garrett Wilson, who reminds him of his former #17 with the Green Bay Packers, Davante Adams. My latest for CBS Sports: https://t.co/ZsMeZwchzB
— Garrett Podell (@garrettpodell) July 21, 2023
Comparing Wilson to Davante Adams? Now that’s exciting. Let’s take a look at some of Adams’ target totals while playing with Rodgers:
- 2021: 169
- 2020: 149
- 2019: 127 (12 games)
- 2018: 169
Hard not to salivate when daydreaming about what Wilson could do with these kinds of target totals playing with Rodgers. So, while it’s accurate to say Wilson is being drafted closer to his ceiling, it’s hard for me to say it’s a mistake. A diminished version of Rodgers means we either get the 2022 version of Wilson or a slightly better one. If Rodgers returns to MVP form? We might not be drafting Wilson high enough.
Dynasty Outlook
While there are long-term questions at quarterback for the Jets, you needn’t worry about Wilson’s future. He proved last year he can produce with terrible quarterback play. Much like his redraft price, Wilson’s value is sky-high, but again, it’s hard to argue.
Wilson is one of the most exciting young receivers in the game. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year is an easy WR1 pick in dynasty leagues, and he should be a true difference-maker at the position for many years.
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