Guillotine Draft Strategy – Fantasy Draft Targets (2024)
So you’ve stepped up to the challenge and you’re ready to draft in a guillotine fantasy football league! Excellent! Now, you’re wondering what players you should be aiming for as the rounds go on. Not sure what exactly a guillotine league is? Learn all about them with ‘What is a Guillotine League?‘ Today, I’m here to offer my assistance with some guillotine draft strategy. These are players you should be targeting in your guillotine fantasy football leagues this year.
In this article, I’ve got six players you should be trying to acquire so you don’t end up on the cutting room floor before the season has barely begun. I’ll be omitting the cream-of-the-crop since they are obvious assets you want to add. I’m focusing on players you can typically select after round two. Buckle up, because here we go!
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Before the NFL Draft, Kyren Williams was going as high as the middle of the first round in redraft leagues. We all know the Rams sullied those speculations by drafting the Michigan standout, Blake Corum. Fear not, however, as the Rams tend to play their veterans instead of rookies when it comes to running backs. Williams, himself, had only 35 carries in his rookie year before running away with the primary role in 2023. The last time a rookie was the top back for head coach Sean McVay was in 2020. That year, Cam Akers led the team in carries (145) and rushing yards (625), barely surpassing Darrell Henderson’s 138 carries and 624 yards. In that season, Akers never saw more than a 33 percent snap share until Week 13.
Williams will begin the season as the primary runner in the Rams offense with basically no immediate competition. You pick him in the third round of your draft and you’ve got a great RB2 or a solid RB1 for the beginning of the season. He doesn’t need to be a season-long option at the position, but still, he could be.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
There are two primary factors that come with this choice: opportunity and winning. Isiah Pacheco is the lead running back for the Chiefs, who are looking for that daunting three-peat championship. Like the previous entry, there is little competition for Pacheco when it comes to carries. Jerick McKinnon has not re-signed, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has never proven to be a threat and Deneric Prince was an undrafted player who has not had one regular season attempt.
The Chiefs haven’t won fewer than 11 games since 2017 while producing an average point differential of 128.2 in the five seasons before 2023. Last year’s lower offensive output was significantly due to the defense shutting down teams. When the defense is humming so fluidly, the offense doesn’t need to make big plays and, instead, keeps the ball on the ground. That’s another point in favor of Pacheco.
Whether Pacheco is your first running back or your second, he’s the kind of player you want for a guillotine fantasy football league. That being, safe and consistent. He’s valuable all season long and he’ll be a huge piece to keep you fighting well into the later weeks of the year.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
The number one read in the Baltimore passing game is Mark Andrews. Impressively, he’s led the Ravens in receptions and receiving yards three times in the last five seasons while averaging 12.7 yards per catch over his career. Even with a strong emphasis on the running game, there are always enough chances for Andrews to succeed. In his first four games of 2023, Andrews averaged five receptions and 56.25 yards per game. He also scored six times in just 10 games played.
The only real knock on Andrews is that he’s had some injuries pop up over his career, keeping him from playing a full season. However, when he starts out healthy, he’ll give you the production you need at a tough position in fantasy. Having an edge over your opponents at one position is a massive advantage in this format.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
For personal preference, the absolute earliest I’m willing to draft a quarterback is in the fifth round. Many people see a quarterback with high rushing upside as a win in this format, but those players come with a high degree of uncertainty. If one of those guys doesn’t get his usual number on the ground, they could be the nail in the coffin for your team. Kyler Murray, however, has so many playmakers to throw to that his passing numbers should be enough to keep you afloat.
In Murray’s last four games of 2023, he averaged 233.8 passing yards per game and had seven passing scores. That was better than Josh Allen (214.8/4), Jalen Hurts (166.5/4), and C.J. Stroud (210.5/4) – all players going ahead of Murray in ADP.
Overall, the key is getting more value at running back and wide receiver, specifically. Waiting to get Murray allows you to do that and acquire a signal caller who can give you enough points to keep you in the fight. Now that he’s more than a year from his last significant injury, we’ll see him at his best again.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson just finished up a rough 2023 campaign plagued with injury and a fledgling offense. He finished strong with at least 102 total scrimmage yards in each of his last three full games, scoring twice. Now, with a new coaching staff and eyes on the future, there is some optimism in New England. With Ezekiel Elliott gone, the sparse competition for carries doesn’t hurt either.
Under first-time head coach Jerod Mayo, an emphasis on defense and clock management is the perceived play style for this season. Stevenson returns, with a big, new contract, as the most well-known and capable playmaker in the offense. Many people expect rookie Drake Maye to take over under center at some point. Often enough, a quality runner can open up opportunities for a young passer. In his last year at North Carolina, Maye connected on eight passes to running backs in two of his final three games. He’ll check down when he needs to.
All of this adds up to a running back with a lower ADP that can perform. He’ll be a lifeline for an offense trying to create a new identity.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Here’s a player you can wait on to fill out your Flex spots or even as an early-season WR2. Courtland Sutton is coming off of a 10-touchdown season when he also saw his highest yards per target number (8.6) since 2019. Notably, he has never averaged less than 13 yards per reception in a season.
Head coach Sean Payton is rolling into his second season commanding the Broncos and he’s had some considerable success with pass catchers. Marques Colston, Michael Thomas, Lance Moore, and Jimmy Graham have all had huge seasons playing under Payton over the years. There will be an alpha pass catcher in his offense and it’s likely to be Sutton.
Without a clear threat for targets or a confirmed second option, Sutton looks to be in line for the lion’s share of the passing payload. Additionally, he just received a contract extension and we like to follow the money in fantasy football. Even with just five catches per game, he’d still be churning out decent numbers and preventing an early exit for you. All in all, he’s a nice option for the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts this year. Not to mention, in your guillotine leagues.
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