Houston Open – Free Expert Picks, Odds, and Values

Greetings folks! Welcome to another installment of PGA Tour Betting. This week we have the Cadence Bank Houston Open at good ole Memorial Park down in Houston, Texas. I will break down the history of the tournament, the ins, and outs of Memorial Park, key course metrics that hold significant weight for success, and finally, who I believe will be triumphant this week down in Space City.

Continue reading to see my top picks and values to target in the Houston Open this year.

Houston Open Tournament History

The Houston Open has a strong history on the PGA Tour. It’s an event that has been held at multiple tracks, primarily in the Houston area, and scattered all over the PGA Tour schedule in years prior.  In 2019, this event was moved to November and dedicated itself to the fall swing.

After a 60-year hiatus, the event made its way back to Memorial Park in 2020, which has been the default location ever since. Since then, Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak have come out victorious. However, these two will not have the chance to defend their titles as they have taken their talents to LIV golf. Go figure.

The Golf Course – Memorial Park

Memorial Park is a par 70 measuring about 7,400 yards. The track was designed by John Bredemus in 1935, and redesigned by Tom Doak, alongside Brooks Koepka who served as a player consultant in 2019.  There are minimal bunkers here. This should be no surprise as Doak likes to test players’ ability around the green with short grass and strenuous green complexes – an aspect of the track that can become highly difficult for players.

Water comes into play on four holes. Fairways, roughs, and greens will all be Bermuda. The Bermuda-grass rough measures just over two inches and the Bermuda-grass greens run about 12.5 on the stimpmeter.

Believe it or not, Memorial Park is a public course. This is a place where many lovers of the game try to get to year in and year out. There’s always something about being able to play a PGA Tour-designed course. Just hits different when you’re out there. Furthermore, the fairways are fairly wide with nice landing areas but can see serious roll into the Bermuda rough given the dry conditions this time of year.

This track can become daunting if you are consistently missing fairways. Hitting out of the two-plus inch Bermuda rough is no easy task. Players must be dialed in on approach this week as well. Given the firm and undulating greens surrounded by short grass, landing approach shots on the correct quadrants of these greens is going to pay dividends.

Course Statistics

• Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Long Golf Courses)
• The Strokes Gained Approach (200 yards+)
• Strokes Gained Around the Green (Bermuda)
• Stokes Gained Putting (Bermuda)

In terms of off-the-tee, I do not see distance getting the edge over accuracy or vice versa. Instead, the main point is that given the length of this track, driver is a must. A player who decides to tee it up with anything less than driver will see themselves left with long approach shots into firm and undulating greens as we stated prior. The rough will surely cause trouble for these players, but not hitting driver due to the rough is foolish.

Memorial park ranked 33rd out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalties. To be honest folks, distance and/or accuracy are indifferent this week. My approach will be to steer toward the players who drive the ball at an elite level on long golf courses.

Strokes Gained Approach

In terms of Strokes Gained Approach, elite ball strikers who flush their second shot in the 175-200+ yardage range should see high levels of success. Memorial Park has various long par fours which can leave some of the shorter hitters off the tee with longer approach shots. Then again, being able to be precise on approach in landing balls on the green is a different animal. I’ll be targeting elite ball strikers who flush their irons from 200+ yards out.

The difference this week can undoubtedly come from around the green play. This track holds the highest percentage of strokes gained around the green over any course on Tour. As alluded to prior, the short grass around the green at Memorial Park is a true test. Elite chippers of the ball who can control speed onto undulating putting surface should see higher levels of success than players who are weak in this area. With that being said, sometimes this stat can become a bit misleading for those who are dialed in on approach and with the flat stick.

When Kokrak won this event last year, he lost strokes around the green but gained almost nine strokes putting. So you can see the difference there. I’ll be targeting players who are elite around the green, specifically on Bermuda grass.

Expect fast greens here at Memorial Park. I wouldn’t say these greens are harder than tour average but the slopey nature plus ample runoff can cause problems from time to time. I’ll be targeting players who putt well on Bermuda-grass relative to the field.

Outright Winner Picks:

Aaron Wise +1600 (FanDuel)

• Five T15s in his last seven starts – Wise is playing some of the best golf of his life
• Off the tee, approach, and ball striking numbers have been absolutely stellar – Wise has gained in all these categories four times out of his last five starts
• Last two years he played this event at Memorial Park he finished T11 and T26
• A top player in this field from approach shots 200+ yards out – a key component to one’s success at Memorial Park
• Been waiting and waiting for Wise to get it done this past year – believe this week is due time for the Oregon Duck alumni

Jason Day +2500 (DraftKings)

• Special stuff out of Jason Day these past three events – T8 at the Shriners, T11 at the CJ Cup, and T21 last week at Mayakoba
• Even dating back to the 3M Open this past summer, Day has been consistently striking the ball at a high level
• Gaining strokes on approach and in the ball striking category in every event since the 3M
• In his last eight rounds, seven of them have been in the sixties – let that sink in
• At this event and track back in 2020, Day finished T7
• One of the best around the green players on Bermuda grass in the field
• Let’s turn the clocks back even further JDAY, a no-brainer outright pick for me this week

Matthew NeSmith +4000 (FanDuel)

• I have been patiently waiting for access to Matthew NeSmith after his three-week hiatus
• His last three starts are a T9 at the Sanderson, T2 at the Shriners, and a T9 at the ZOZO Championship
• One of the best iron players on tour and has pretty much gained across the board in his last three starts
• His last two starts at Memorial Park have not been that great, but this doesn’t worry me given the form NeSmith is currently in
• Ball striking king with value too good not to pounce on
• Absolutely love this spot for NeSmith and could not be more excited to see what’s in store for the 29-year-old this week in Houston

Value/Long Shot Plays:

• Taylor Pendrith +5000 (DraftKings)
• Dean Burmester +6500 (DraftKings)
• Sepp Straka +7000 (Caesars)

Let’s be great folks.

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