Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Wide Receiver – Ohio State
6′ 1″ 196 lbs
1st Round – 1st Pick (20nd Overall) – Seattle Seahawks
Like most everyone, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was my WR1 all off-season prior to the NFL Draft. At Ohio, State Smith-Njigba showed off his excellent hands, route running, and elite separation skills. Additionally, he dominated from the slot in college and looks to continue this at the next level.
What makes him elite is his production profile. All that needs to be said is that he outproduced Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in the same Ohio State offense at a younger age. During his sophomore season, he posted a ridiculous 95-1606-9 stat line.
There is some concern about Smith-Njigba’s health as he only played in three games last year due to a nagging hamstring injury. Personally, this doesn’t bother me too much. From my understanding, Smith-Njigba knew he was a first-round lock and was more focused on making sure he was healthy.
Fantasy Football Outlook
With the Seahawks taking Smith-Njigba at 20, this slots him to be the WR2 in this offense behind DK Metcalf and above Tyler Lockett. Nonetheless, Smith-Njigba will still see a ton of targets from the slot due to how much this position is utilized in the modern NFL. Furthermore, he can immediately play in the slot while the other two play the outside. Keep in mind, Smith-Njigba is absolutely more than capable of playing inside and outside.
While many people will drop him down in their rookie rankings due to Lockett’s presence, he’s almost a nonfactor to me. Lockett will turn 31 next year and take a big step down regarding his involvement in the offense. It might take a bit for this role to get established, but he should overtake Lockett sooner than later.
Overall, the Seahawks are a very solid landing spot for Smith-Njigba. Last year the Seahawks finished as the 15th-ranked offense in the league in passing attempts. The team also has Geno Smith under the helm for the next few years. This is by no means an amazing land spot for Smith-Njigba, but he avoids the danger zone with the Ravens at pick 22.
2023 Projections:
- 14 Games Played
- 77 Receptions
- 1,014 Receiving Yards
- 6 Touchdowns
In a PPR format, this would give Smith-Njigba 214.4 points on the season. For reference, this would put Smith-Njigba as the WR21 last season. If these projections hold up, he would be a low-end wide receiver two in fantasy football in 2023.
In Underdog redraft leagues, he is currently going in the middle of the 6th round to the early 7th round. I don’t expect him to shoot up the draft board as a result of the NFL Draft. With that being said, at this price point, I’m absolutely buying in on him.
I don’t want to give Smith-Njigba unrealistic expectations, but at the same time, he has all the upside in the world. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes even higher than this.
Dynasty Outlook
From a dynasty fantasy football perspective, this pick checks every box in Smith-Njigba’s rookie profile. First, he gets first-round draft capital. Next, he avoids falling into the Ravens’ horrible passing offense and instead goes to a solid offense with average passing volume.
The one knock you could make against Smith-Njigba is he won’t be the wide receiver one on his team. However, this doesn’t matter to me, as he operates almost exclusively from the slot.
In Superflex rookie drafts, I’m taking him in the 1.03 to 1.04 spot every time. All in all, Smith-Njigba may not be a cornerstone asset right now, but he’s a player I still love due to the talent he possesses. Trust the talent.
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