Running Back – Alabama
5’9″ 199 lbs
1st Round – 12th pick (12th Overall) – Detroit Lions
With the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions made one of the most questionable picks we’ve seen. After signing David Montgomery in free agency and D’Andre Swift emerging, they drafted rookie running back, Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs is a modern iteration of a running back tailor-made for the quick offensive styles that prioritize getting the ball into the hands of their best playmakers. When looking at his new team in the Motor City, Gibbs will look to make an early impact on what was already a top-four offense in terms of raw offensive output.
Gibbs produced over 3,300 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns over his time as both a Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket and a member of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Furthermore, he had a target share of 14.7% over this time and a yards per touch of 6.9. This shows his elite ability to make yards out of thin air when he is entrusted with the rock. Additionally, he has a unique ability to throttle up and down to make defenders miss in the open field by committing to bad angles. These skills were on display here versus Arkansas this past season.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Gibbs is a gifted player and was a highly sought-after high school recruit for good reason. He possesses a lethal combination of speed, agility, and balance that makes him an explosive threat on the field. Furthermore, he has the ability to run past defenders, break through arm tackles, and make house calls on a whim.
Additionally, Gibbs’ versatility as a player boosts his value in PPR leagues. He can be used as a screen and swing pass receiver, as well as in the slot or out wide. Because of his flexibility, he can be used in a variety of formations and packages, theoretically making him a valuable asset to both his team and fantasy football teams.
Now, though this spot is awesome in theory, there is a lot to untangle in practice. After signing Montgomery to a decently sized contract, many thought the Lions would be out of the market for a new face in the running back room. This is because Montgomery fills the role of an early-down grinder and Swift would be a change of pace scat back.
The addition of Gibbs throws a major wrench into what we previously thought about this backfield. For the sake of our fantasy football teams, we can only hope that this move spells the end of Swift’s time in Detroit. The writing for this has been on the wall for quite some time. Otherwise, this rotation will be a nightmare in terms of predictability. For all of our sakes, we can only hope that Swift is on a different franchise by the time week one comes around.
Dynasty Outlook
Back to theory. Gibbs, a running back, going 12th overall is a historic indicator of success in the NFL that we should take as a sign of imminent usage by his team. While conversely, that team made a prior investment in free agency at the same position. While we are still trying to interpret what this means for the 2023 season, the draft capital spent here has historical significance in predicting success and usage early on.
Gibbs is easily my 1.05 at this time for upcoming rookie drafts, as well as a top-12 dynasty running back. Honestly, he could be talked up into the 1.03 and into the top 8 of my rankings based on what his value will do when he begins scoring points. Nonetheless, he should not fall past 1.06 in any circumstances. If he is to do so in your rookie drafts, make great haste to jump on this future star before he begins to shine.
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