J.K. Dobbins 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Fantasy Football Outlook
Today, we’re breaking down the 2023 fantasy football outlook for the Baltimore Ravens’ lead running back. This will be his fourth season in the NFL since being drafted by the Ravens back in 2020. Let’s get into his upside and outlook for the upcoming fantasy football season.
2022 could not have started any worse for Dobbins. A massive knee injury caused him to miss all of 2021. As a result, Dobbins began the 2022 season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and missed the first two games. He then returned for Weeks 3-6 but failed to gain more than 44 yards in any contest.
Adding insult to injury, Dobbins would undergo a cleanup procedure on his surgically repaired knee that would cost him an additional six games.
However, Dobbins returned a different player after the procedure. Clearing 100 yards rushing twice and averaging 6.9 yards per carry, Dobbins closed out the season nicely and showed signs of promise.
Fresh off a solid finish to his 2022, how will this translate to his 2023 season?
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Dobbins’ final stat line will cause most gamers to swipe left, but when we look under the hood and view the advanced metrics, things don’t look quite as bad.
According to Fantasy Points, among running backs with at least 50 carries, Dobbins ranked fourth out of 67 eligible backs in breakaway run percentage (BRP) and fifth in yards after contact per attempt.
The fact Dobbins accomplished this in year one post-knee surgery (as well as a secondary procedure in season) is a testament to his ability.
Stars Aligning?
The situation in front of Dobbins is too good to ignore. Their offense has new life thanks to new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The Ravens added help in the passing game by signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting talented receiver Zay Flowers in the first round.
These moves will keep defenses guessing in terms of the passing game and will give Dobbins plenty of run-friendly boxes to take advantage of.
While Dobbins has not been an elite pass catcher thus far, there is chatter the Ravens want to expand this part of his game. An increased role in the passing game combined with more touches would be a lethal combination, given his efficiency.
Should Dobbins manage to stay healthy, he can easily smash his current RB18 price according to our up-to-date fantasy football rankings.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Dobbins is entering his age 24 season and will not turn 25 until December. He is also entering a contract year with much to prove. While Dobbins has yet to put it together for a full season, he has been an extremely efficient player averaging a healthy 5.9 yards per carry (YPC) over his first 226 career rush attempts.
Dobbins’ dynasty stock is still low as he sits as the RB17, according to our up-to-date dynasty rankings. He is, however, one big season away from potentially skyrocketing up these rankings.
What Should We Do?
Full disclosure — Dobbins is one of my highest-rostered players. I have been trying to acquire him wherever I can. Preferably at a discount.
In my most recent dynasty trade, I acquired Dobbins in exchange for Kenneth Walker. That’s a deal I’d make 100 times out of 100.
One of the best ways to get an edge in fantasy football is to identify elite players before they put up elite statistics. Dobbins has shown incredible efficiency throughout his young career, and the advanced metrics back up his play. This is a player whom you should want on your dynasty rosters. He is a fantastic buy-low.
While cautious players will be scared off by the knee and the current uncertainty surrounding his contract, savvy players are making their move to acquire a talented back. Moves like this are what win you dynasty titles.
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