Fantasy Football Outlook

Fresh off an Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up finish, Kenneth Walker appeared to be one of the next great bell-cow backs for fantasy football purposes. However, that all changed when the Seahawks selected running back Zach Charbonnet with the 52nd overall pick of the NFL Draft.  This selection left fantasy players bewildered, but upon closer review, we should not have been surprised. Now facing an uncertain role, let’s dive into what this means for Walker’s outlook for the 2023 fantasy football season.  

2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Walker was buried behind Rashaad Penny to start last season, but once Penny went down Walker was able to shine. He finished as the RB9 from Week 6 on according to FantasyPros.

While these numbers were great for fantasy purposes, Walker was very inefficient as a runner.  According to Sharp Football, among 42 running backs with 100+ carries, Walker finished 42nd in success rate, 42nd in early down success rate, and 41st in percentage of rushes to gain 5+ yards. Seattle seemed to know what these numbers are telling us and felt Walker left some meat on the bone. In the end, they added Charbonnet as a result. 

Charbonnet does not possess the same homerun speed that Walker does. However, he’s a good singles and doubles hitter, who takes what’s given to him by the defense.

The main problem for Walker is that Charbonnet excels in areas where Walker struggled.  Walker’s struggles with efficiency, short yardage, and catching passes mean he can easily be relegated to a TRAP (Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage) back for fantasy football purposes. This means Walker would get touches that are insignificant in terms of fantasy production. All things considered, I believe Walker could be a disastrous selection according to our up-to-date fantasy football ADP. 

It’s impossible to predict exactly how this situation will play out. We are dealing with an unprecedented scenario that has two young backs with nearly identical draft capital on the same roster.  The one certainty? It does not bode well for Walker’s fantasy prospects.  

When objectively analyzing the situation, it’s hard to justify taking Walker at his current RB14 price when you could find equal or better production from Charbonnet later in drafts. 

Dynasty Outlook

For as tricky as Walker’s redraft outlook is, his dynasty outlook is not any better. All in all, I believe his dynasty stock collapsed faster than Enron’s the moment Seattle took Charbonnet. While Walker truthers will insist he will maintain his grip on the backfield, the reality of the situation is quite simple.  Charbonnet kills Walker’s fantasy value.  

However, we do need to remember that Walker is still a talented back with his home run, big-play type of ability.

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Overall, the problem is that Charbonnet’s strengths perfectly mesh with Walker’s weaknesses.  It’s hard to believe the Seahawks’ move is pure coincidence.   

What Should We Do?

If Walker is available cheap, it’s not the worst idea to kick the tires on a trade.  We just need to adjust our expectations and realize that he is unlikely to reach the heights we saw last year. 

According to KeepTradeCut, Walker is worth a first-round pick in dynasty leagues. Personally, I wish you luck fetching that price.

In leagues where I have Walker, I’ve tried getting a first-round pick in exchange for him. I’ve had managers scoff at that asking price. Additionally, I’ve tried buying low with a package of a second round-pick plus a little something, but in return, I am met with lectures on Walker’s supposed value to go along with a rejection. 

Unfortunately, Walker is stuck in dynasty purgatory. Managers don’t want to sell short, and buyers want to buy low. Unless you want to sell for five cents on the dollar, you’re going to have to hold your nose and hope for the best. 

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