Luke Musgrave – 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Tight End – Oregon State
6’6” 249 lbs
2nd Round – 11th Pick (42nd Overall) – Green Bay Packers
Musgrave is a freak athlete, who shows strong potential as both a pass catcher and run blocker. He can win in the middle of the field and get deep with the help of play-action or misdirection. Additionally, he has the speed to beat linebackers up the seam. However, he will need to develop his routes and agility so he can defeat man-to-man coverage from opposing safeties and corners. Overall, Musgrave will need to rely on that athleticism early.
At 6’6 and running a 4.61 in the 40-yard dash, he is a danger to stretch the field. Not only that, but he absolutely requires the attention of downfield safeties. Furthermore, he is a straight-line runner and will likely rely on his size more often than his being able to create separation in his breaks.
Musgrave is absolutely a potential starter in the league, but his receiving upside isn’t as strong as his speed may lead some to believe. Think of his passing-game upside as good, but not great. Additionally, Green Bay has done zero to address the tight end position this offseason, leaving just former 2020 3rd Round pick Josiah Deguara, and, the former 6th Round pick of the Jaguars in 2020, Tyler Davis. However, they went on to draft Tucker Kraft in the middle of the 3rd Round this year.
Obviously, they were not planning on standing pat at the tight end position. This is substantial considering how they did not re-sign Robert Tonyan or Marcedes Lewis. Musgrave will be starting by October with the team and has a chance for significant targets in an offense that relies on tight ends for underneath passes.
Fantasy Football Outlook
For fantasy football, the tight end position is where you’re chasing upside and touchdowns. The production floor is so low that nearly anyone could be a TE1 in a given week. That being said, with Musgrave coming into Green Bay and having absolutely no competition at the position. It seems a given they will be pushed towards a starting role at the next level.
Green Bay’s scheme though will call for a lot of usage out of the tight end position. With realistic expectations for Musgrave in this scheme, here are my projections for 2023.
2023 Projections:
- 16 Games
- 63 Receptions
- 538 yards
- 6 Touchdowns
This kind of productivity would make Musgrave a TE2 in all formats. In this class, the Green Bay landing spot provides one with the highest production moving forward in future years. He is likely a TE2 this year as his opportunity for targets and athleticism should keep him as a lottery card to pick up at the end of your drafts in redraft leagues.
Dynasty Outlook
As for your dynasty leagues, Musgrave is still no more than an early third-round pick. Regardless of format. He has traits that could push up his potential into being elite in the future. However, as we all have seen, most tight ends struggle to hit this especially early on. That being said, with a lot of targets up for grabs in a new era in Green Bay, Musgrave should have plenty of opportunity to carve out a solid role in this offense.
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