Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Broncos vs. Bills

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 11 of the 2023 NFL regular season is nearly in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Josh Allen Under 274.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Allen has played well this season despite dealing with a minor shoulder injury. The superstar has averaged 269.2 passing yards per game this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. However, he has thrown for over 274 yards in only three contests this year. Furthermore, Allen hasn’t had more than 265 passing yards in three of the past four games. Meanwhile, his matchup on Monday night isn’t as appealing as it appears on paper.

Denver’s defense has played better than given credit for this season. They have surrendered 2,135 passing yards to quarterbacks, the 12th-most in the NFL, giving up 266.9 per game. The Broncos have played better on defense since the embarrassing performance against the Miami Dolphins. Over their past four games, they have held quarterbacks to 231.3 passing yards per contest, giving up under 200 yards twice. Allen should have a productive performance but will struggle to have over 250 passing yards.

Javonte Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The former North Carolina star had high expectations entering the year after he didn’t start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. However, Williams has averaged only 51 rushing yards per game, totaling 52 or less in all but two contests. Furthermore, the third-year running back has had more than 14 rushing attempts in only two games this season. While he had 85 rushing yards in Denver’s Week 8 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, it took him 27 attempts to hit that total.

Furthermore, Williams averaged a season-low 3.1 yards per rushing attempt against the Chiefs. More importantly, the former North Carolina star isn’t the team’s featured running back. He has played over 53% of the snaps in only one game this year. Meanwhile, the Bills have done well at slowing down opposing running backs lately. Over the past three weeks, Buffalo has held running backs to only 53.3 rushing yards per game, surrendering 50 or less twice.

Khalil Shakir Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Thankfully, Stefon Diggs will play in this game after showing up on the injury report Friday with a back injury. However, bettors should still like Shakir to hit the over on his receiving total. The second-year wide receiver has seen the field more lately with the injury to Dawson Knox. Over the past three weeks, the former Boise State star has averaged 61.3 receiving yards per game, totaling 35 or more in every contest, including 57 or more in back-to-back weeks.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have done well at containing wide receivers this year. They have held wide receivers to only 1,116 receiving yards, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Denver has given up 139.5 receiving yards per game to the position. However, those numbers are deflated because of the team’s recent matchups. Over the past four weeks, they have faced the Kansas City Chiefs twice, the Green Bay Packers, and the New York Jets. Shakir should have no trouble totaling at least 40 receiving yards in this game.

Courtland Sutton to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+155)

After starting the year slowly, the Broncos offense has been better lately. However, the most consistent player on offense all season has been Sutton. The former SMU star has six receiving touchdowns, the fourth-most in the NFL, tied with A.J. Brown and Mark Andrews. The veteran wide receiver has found the end zone in all but two games this year, including three straight heading into the team’s bye week. Sutton has averaged a receiving touchdown once per 5.5 receptions this season.

More importantly, the former SMU star has accounted for 37.5% of the team’s receiving touchdowns in 2023. Sutton has as many receiving touchdowns as the rest of Denver’s wide receiver unit combined. Meanwhile, the Bills have surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year. However, they’ve struggled over the past three weeks, giving up three receiving touchdowns to the position. Sutton is Russell Wilson’s go-to guy in the red zone, seeing a team-high 10 targets and a 26% target per route run rate inside the 20 (per Fantasy Points Data).

Dalton Kincaid Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Many had high hopes for Kincaid entering the season. Unfortunately, the rookie averaged only 23.6 receiving yards per game over his first five contests. However, the former Utah star has been outstanding since Dawson Knox suffered a wrist injury. Over the past three weeks, Kincaid has averaged 73.7 receiving yards per game, totaling 65 or more in every game. More importantly, the rookie is coming off the best performance of his career.

Last week, the former Utah star led the Bills in receptions (10), targets (11), and targets per rout run rate (27%). Furthermore, he finished second in receiving yards behind Stefon Diggs (86 vs. 81). Meanwhile, Denver has been awful at containing opposing tight ends, surrendering 70.1 receiving yards per game. The Broncos have allowed tight ends to have 81 or more yards in all but one of their past five games, including 111 or more twice. Kincaid will have his fourth consecutive game with over 65 receiving yards Monday night.