Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Chargers vs. Jets

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 8 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Jets. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props are from DraftKings.

Breece Hall Over 80.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)

Last week, Hall had a poor performance on the ground, totaling 17 rushing yards. However, he made up for it in the passing game, totaling six receptions on eight targets for 76 receiving yards, all season highs. More importantly, the former Iowa State star has averaged 63.3 rushing yards and 90.3 scrimmage yards per game despite playing over half the year on a pitch count. Hall has had at least 93 scrimmage yards in 57.1% of the games, including three straight contests.

The Chargers’ run defense has improved from last season. They have surrendered 74.9 rushing yards per game to running backs, one of the lower averages in the NFL. However, Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs, giving up 54.9 yards per game. More importantly, they have surrendered 129.8 scrimmage yards per game to running backs this year, allowing 91 or more in every contest, including 122 or more in half the matchups.

Austin Ekeler Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Unfortunately, Ekeler has struggled in the run game since returning from a high ankle sprain. The superstar running back had 117 rushing yards, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt in Week 1. Yet, he has averaged only 33.7 rushing yards per game and 2.3 yards per attempt since returning from the injury. However, his receiving game role has been consistent. Ekeler has averaged 44.3 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 35 or more in all but one contest. Furthermore, he had led the team with 94 receiving yards last week.

New York has struggled to slow down running backs in the passing game. The Jets have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs, giving up 46 yards per contest. According to Fantasy Points Data, New York has seen 26.7% of the targets against them go to players out of the backfield, the most in the league. After leading the team in receiving yards in Week 8, more aggressive bettors should bet Ekeler’s alternate receiving yards line of 40 or more at +155.

Garrett Wilson Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

What would have been if Aaron Rodgers hadn’t torn his Achilles in Week 1? However, Wilson has been productive without the future Hall of Fame quarterback. He has averaged 72.5 receiving yards per game since opening weekend, totaling 80 or more in half of those contests. Over the past two weeks, the former Ohio State star has been excellent, averaging 7.5 receptions on 12 targets for 95 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 90 in both matchups. More importantly, he is the passing offense for the Jets.

Wilson has accounted for 35.1% of the team’s receiving yards market share, the 12th-highest in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data). The next two closest Jets players have a combined 36.1% share. Meanwhile, the Chargers haven’t fixed their pass defense. Los Angeles has especially struggled against No. 1 wide receivers, surrendering 6.6 receptions on 9.3 targets for 115.9 receiving yards per game. They’ve allowed No. 1 wide receivers to have 149 or more receiving yards in nearly half the games this season.

Keenan Allen Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

There have been only a few wide receivers more productive than Allen in 2023. The veteran wide receiver has averaged 91.9 receiving yards per game. However, his average per game drops to 71.3 receiving yards without the 215-yard performance in Week 3. More importantly, the veteran has averaged 134 receiving yards per game with Mike Williams on the field but only 60.3 yards per game without him. In the four games without Williams, Allen has had under 70 receiving yards all but once.

Everyone knows the Jets have an elite secondary led by Sauce Gardner. However, slot cornerback Michael Carter II has played well this year, allowing fewer receiving yards per target than the superstar. Furthermore, he has the lowest catch rate and NFL passer rating allowed of the team’s three starting cornerbacks. Allen has run 62.5% of his routes from the slot this season, avoiding a matchup with Gardner. However, Carter has played well enough this season that he should keep the veteran receiver from hitting the over on this prop bet.

Allen Lazard Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While Garrett Wilson is the first, second, third, and fourth option in New York’s passing attack, Lazard has been productive in his first year with the team. The veteran wide receiver has accounted for 19.1% of the team’s receiving yards market share, second only to Wilson. More importantly, the former undrafted free-agent wide receiver has averaged 36.4 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 33 or more in all but two contests. Last week, the veteran had six targets in the win over the New York Giants, a season-high.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Los Angeles has given up the most passing yards this season. Furthermore, they have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers entering Week 9, surrendering almost 200 yards per game to the position. While the Chargers have struggled with No. 1 wide receivers, they haven’t had much success with the second option either. They have given up 57.1 receiving yards per game to the No. 2 wide receiver this year, surrendering at least 33 in every game.

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