Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Packers vs. Raiders

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. Additionally, we have 5 teams on bye this week. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

For this week’s Monday Night Football matchup, we have the Green Bay Packers facing off against the Las Vegas Raiders. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/8/23

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)

After a strong start to begin the year, Love has cooled off the past two weeks. The former Utah State star had three passing touchdowns in Week 1 and Week 2. However, he has only two passing scores over the past two weeks. Yet, the young quarterback is still fifth in the NFL with eight passing touchdowns this season. More importantly, Love has an appealing matchup in Week 5 against the Raiders.

Las Vegas has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks this season. They have surrendered eight passing touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league, entering Week 5. More importantly, the Raiders have struggled regardless of who the opposing quarterback is, giving up two passing touchdowns to Kenny Pickett. Meanwhile, bettors should also bet on Love to score an anytime touchdown (+400). In the two games he had only one passing touchdown this season, the quarterback had a rushing score. Placing both bets allows bettors to somewhat hedge on what Love does in this game.

Josh Jacobs Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last week, Jacobs got back on track for fantasy football players. However, he failed to hit the over on his rushing total. Furthermore, the star running back hasn’t hit the over on his rushing total once this season. Unfortunately, that continues this week against the Packers. According to Fantasy Points Data, Jacobs has averaged 2.08 yards after contact per rushing attempt, down from 3.23 in 2022. Moreover, the former Alabama star has the third-highest stuff rate (54.8%) among running backs with at least 40 rushing attempts.

While Green Bay surrendered 121 rushing yards to David Montgomery in Week 4, he needed 32 rushing attempts to accomplish that total. Furthermore, the Packers held the veteran to only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. When opposing running backs have at least 35 rushing attempts against the Packers, they have averaged 166.5 yards per game. By comparison, the Packers have given up only 64 yards on 18 rushing attempts per game in the other two contests this season. Jacobs has averaged 15.5 rushing attempts per game this year, seeing under 20 in every matchup. That likely won’t change Monday night.

Romeo Doubs Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Most of the headlines in this game will be about Davante Adams facing his former team for the first time. However, don’t forget about Green Bay’s talented wide receiver unit. Doubs has been outstanding this season, averaging five receptions on 8.3 targets for 56 receiving yards per game. More importantly, the second-year receiver has been Jordan Love’s favorite target the past two weeks, totaling at least 73 receiving yards and 12 targets in both contests. Meanwhile, Doubs has an excellent matchup this week.

The Raiders have struggled to slow down opposing wide receivers this year. After surrendering only 83 receiving yards in Week 1, Las Vegas has been giving away yards to wide receivers. Over the past three weeks, the Raiders have allowed opposing wide receivers to average 162.3 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 143 in every contest. Furthermore, they have given up at least 66 receiving yards to five different wide receivers over the past three weeks. Doubs could hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.

Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-115)

Despite suffering a shoulder injury in Week 4, Adams will play against his former team Monday night. The future Hall of Famer will now have faced every team in the NFL. This matchup has to mean something to Adams. More importantly, the superstar had the third-most receiving touchdowns (three) over the first four weeks this season, including two in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Packers have struggled against opposing No. 1 wide receivers.

Green Bay hasn’t faced many threatening passing attacks this season. However, they have struggled when facing a formidable passing attack. When the Packers faced Chris Olave in Week 3, they surrendered eight receptions on 11 targets for 104 receiving yards. Then, they gave up five receptions on seven targets for 56 receiving yards and a touchdown to Amon-Ra St. Brown last week. Adams is a far superior wide receiver than those two players. With Jaire Alexander questionable to play, Adams should have no trouble finding the end zone in a revenge game.

Luke Musgrave Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, Musgrave suffered a concussion early in the Week 4 matchup against the Detroit Lions. The rookie tight end was playing outstanding football before the injury. Over the first three weeks, he averaged 3.7 receptions on five targets for 41.3 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 49 yards in all but one contest. More importantly, Musgrave has been a go-to target for Jordan Love, finishing third on the team in target share (15.8%) and air yard share (16.5%) over the first three weeks.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have struggled to slow down opposing tight ends this season, giving up 39.8 receiving yards per game to the position. Furthermore, Las Vegas surrendered six receptions for 50 receiving yards to tight ends over the first three weeks, giving up at least 41 yards in every contest. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Raiders surrendered the 10th-highest yards per route run rate over the first three weeks. While he will have all his weapons in this game, expect Love to continue to lean on his talented tight end.

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