Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Titans vs. Dolphins

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 13 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Miami Dolphins. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-180)

Tagovailoa has had an impressive 2023 season. The former Alabama star has 24 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL. Yet, he hasn’t been consistent weekly. The star quarterback has averaged two passing touchdowns per game this year. However, Tagovailoa has had more than two passing touchdowns in only 25% of the games. Furthermore, he averaged 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the first eight weeks, totaling three or more in half of the contests.

However, the star quarterback has seen his touchdown production dip lately. Over the past four contests, Tagovailoa has averaged only 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, totaling one or fewer twice. Meanwhile, the Titans have a poor pass defense. Yet, they’ve kept quarterbacks out of the end zone, surrendering the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns per game (1.2) entering Week 14. Quarterbacks have thrown fewer than three passing touchdowns against Tennessee in every game this season.

Derrick Henry Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)

Despite the Titans’ inconsistencies on offense, Henry has had another productive year. However, the superstar running back has struggled to stay on the field when Tennessee gets blown out. In the eight games the team has either won or lost by less than six points, Henry has averaged 18.9 rushing attempts per contest. By comparison, he has averaged only 11.5 rushing attempts per game in the four contests the Titans have lost by seven or more points.

Unfortunately, Tennessee is nearly a two-touchdown underdog on the road in Miami. Therefore, bettors shouldn’t expect Henry to see plenty of rushing attempts in a game they are projected to get blown out. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have faced the 11th-fewest rushing attempts by opposing running backs this season. Their offense has been explosive, leading to early leads in games. The Titans’ defense will struggle to contain the Dolphins offense. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Henry plays less than 50% in this game.

De’Von Achane Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Miami’s offense is built like an Olympic sprint team. Achane is one of several home run hitter players on offense. Despite having only one rushing attempt in a third of the games this year, the rookie running back has averaged 89 rushing yards per contest. Furthermore, he has had at least 73 rushing yards in every game with more than one attempt, totaling 101 or more in all but one of those matchups.

More importantly, Achane showed he was healthy last week, totaling 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the blowout victory. Now he faces a Titans defense that has struggled with elite rushing attacks this season. They have surrendered 85 rushing yards per game to running backs. However, they’ve given up at least 100 rushing yards in matchups against the Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, and Pittsburgh Steelers. With Jeffery Simmons out this week, expect Achane to chew apart Tennessee’s vulnerable run defense.

Chigoziem Okonkwo Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Many Titan fans had high hopes for Okonkwo entering the year. Unfortunately, he struggled over the first six weeks with Ryan Tannehill under center, averaging only 20.3 receiving yards per game. Okonkwo had fewer than 30 in all but two of those contests. However, he has been solid with Will Levis starting. By comparison, the second-year player has averaged 31.8 receiving yards per game in the six games with the rookie quarterback, including 45 or more in back-to-back weeks.

Meanwhile, the defense has played better since Jalen Ramsey made his Miami debut. They have held quarterbacks to only 184.6 passing yards per game, giving up more than 185 only once. However, the team has struggled to contain opposing tight ends, giving up 50.7 receiving yards per game this season. Furthermore, they’ve surrendered 56 or more receiving yards in four of five games with Ramsey on the field. Okonkwo should have his third consecutive game with over 40 receiving yards.

Tyreek Hill Over 105.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Whether he should win the MVP award or not, Hill has been the top non-quarterback in the NFL in 2023. The superstar wide receiver is on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record by over 130. More importantly, Hill is the only player in the NFL to average more than 100 receiving yards per game this year (123.4). He has more games with 145 or more receiving yards (six), including two of three games since the bye week, than with under 110 (five).

Furthermore, the superstar wide receiver doesn’t need a massive target share to hit the over on this prop bet. Hill has averaged 10.6 targets per game this season. Yet, he has four games with under double-digit targets. The future Hall of Famer has averaged 109 receiving yards per game in those four contests, including 157 yards in Week 13. Meanwhile, the Titans have surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in 2023. Last week, they gave up 105 receiving yards to Michael Pittman Jr.

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