NBA Pacific Division — Fantasy Basketball Outlook (2023-2024)

The NBA’s Pacific Division has big stars and some of the best fantasy basketball production as well. Every team can be good enough to make the playoffs, and every team is on a very specific trajectory. This means we should see competitive basketball from some of the planet’s best players in Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant, as well as Kawhi Leonard and Paul Goerge in Los Angeles. Needless to say, there’s a ton of talent here.

With players hopefully coming to training camp healthy, fantasy managers should have an idea of how these rotations shake out during the season, health permitting. A lot of these teams re-signed talent or attempted to improve their starters through trades. Due to that competition, it’s fair to expect the 2023-2024 Pacific Division to offer fantasy value throughout the season and the end of fantasy basketball playoffs.

Let’s discuss which players may see a natural increase in production while others suffer dips in usage and offer less as a third or fourth option for the team. Ultimately, I’ll be breaking down all of the fantasy basketball outlooks and implications of these top players in this talented division.

Golden State Warriors

Projected Starting Lineup

G Stephen Curry

G Chris Paul

F Klay Thompson

F Andrew Wiggins

C Draymond Green

Bench: Kevon Looney, Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton, Cory Joseph, Dario Šarić, Lester Quiñones

Breakout Candidates: Jonathan Kuminga, Trayce Jackson-Davis

The Golden State Warriors will be hoping an experienced lineup and the addition of Chris Paul can take the team to an NBA Finals win in 2024. For fantasy managers, more of the same from 2022 can be expected for the established starters. Klay Thompson is going to get up his threes and his field goals, having put up the most shots per game in his career last season (18.1 field goal attempts per game). There should still be plenty of shots available in this offense, with the departure of Jordan Poole’s 15.6 attempts per game in 2022, while Paul hasn’t attempted 15 field goals a game since the 2015-2016 season as a Clipper. Last season he would average 11.3 shot attempts a game.

This offense should run just as well with the addition of Paul, and not much in the offensive structure should change. Stephen Curry should still see the most usage and be a primary shooter and passer. Curry should be a first-round pick and near the top in value for category and points leagues. He can return top 10 value as his skills gracefully age both in the real game and for fantasy. Thompson should still see his shots and should be able to be a top 100 player in 2023, but of course, doesn’t offer many counting stats aside from the scoring. With a premier set of shooters, along with the energy and athletic play of Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, we should expect a very confident group that is going to gear up for a playoff run.

Between resting players in the front court or on the wing, this team could need a player like Jonathan Kuminga to come in and start a few meaningful games. His defensive ability is evident, and now he needs a greater opportunity to see if he can contribute in a substantial role. That may not happen in Golden State this season, but he’d be a great young piece for a team to acquire.

Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Starting Lineup

G Russell Westbrook

G Paul George

F Kawhi Leonard

F Marcus Morris

C Ivica Zubac

Bench: Norman Powell, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, Nicolas Batum, Jason Preston, Terance Mann, Kenyon Martin Jr., Robert Covington

Breakout Candidates: Jason Preston, Kenyon Martin Jr.

The Clippers seemingly had motivation in trading for 76ers guard James Harden, but as that isn’t in the cards right now, expect this team to start the year with healthy players and familiar construct. If Kawhi Leonard and Paul George remain healthy, even with load management, they will be able to be consistent top 40 options with the potential to be a top-five option any given night. They are both two-way efficient fantasy players who will see usage and continue to dominate the game when healthy. Both talents are elite and just need to stay healthy to be top 20 assets.

Russell Westbrook should again take a place as a top three option on this team, and with his team-friendly contract, contenders in dynasty and those in redraft middle rounds should be keeping him in mind. He can still offer enough in the rebounding and assist departments for those in category and points leagues, with a slight bump in points leagues. If he can continue shooting the same as he began with the Clippers (48.9% on 12.5 field goal attempts per game), he should return value higher than his current average redraft ADP of 87.8 overall.

Of course, with so many counting stats and usage being attributed to these three players, it’s hard to find ascending assets elsewhere. Ivica Zubac has obvious ability as a rebounder and is a solid top 150 player, but there just isn’t enough opportunity for him or Marcus Morris to offer much for fantasy.

Solid depth options in Terance Mann and the acquisition of Kenyon Martin Jr. will help on the court, but they may not see more than 25-minute roles. If Leonard or George do go down for any extended period of time, expect those players to either become more involved or for the team to aggressively shop them for a higher-value asset, a la James Harden in February. This team needs to stay healthy, or they are right on the cusp of entire rotation changes and, of course, fantasy fallout.

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Starting Lineup

G D’Angelo Russell

G Austin Reaves

F LeBron James

F Jarred Vanderbilt

C Anthony Davis

Bench: Colin Castleton, Jaxson Hayes, Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish, Max Christie, Rui Hachimura, Taurean Prince, Jalen Hood-Schifino

Breakout Candidates: Max Christie

The Los Angeles Lakers have found a groove in structuring their team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis as the headliners. James offers production in multiple areas, and with an average ADP of 16.9 across multiple platforms, redraft managers understand his ability still can return elite value. Expect James and Davis to again lead this team for fantasy purposes. Davis had career highs in both field goal percentage and rebounds per game in 2022. He also played the most games in a season since 2020 with 56. Hopefully, he’s back to full health and able to give managers 65+ games in 2023. Davis still has the talent to return first-round value, and managers know it, with his ADP being right at 12.5.

This team has seen steady growth in undrafted free agent Austin Reaves and signed guard Gabe Vincent to further shore up the team’s backcourt. Vincent could lead the second unit at the point, which should give them a steady vet who may be able to provide a little bit of everything but won’t likely make much noise for fantasy. Reaves and second-year player Max Christie should see an increase in usage, with Reaves ready to continue extending his efficient and well-rounded skillset early in his career.

Reaves can return top 100 value in a 30-minute role, offering good field goal percentage, three-point efficiency, and some counting stats in his rebounding plus assisting. We’ll see if Rui Hachimura or Jarred Vanderbilt can reach top 150 value while in roles with less offensive upside.

Phoenix Suns

Projected Starting Lineup

G Bradley Beal

G Devin Booker

F Josh Okogie

F Kevin Durant

C Deandre Ayton

Bench: Keita Bates-Diop, Damion Lee, Jordan Goodwin, Eric Gordon, Drew Eubanks, Yuri Watanabe, Chimezie Metu

Breakout Candidates: Jordan Goodwin, Keita Bates-Diop, Toumani Camara

The Phoenix Suns have four players making over $30 million dollars on their payroll and have not invested in the NBA Draft much. They did sign intriguing names in Yuri Watanabe, Drew Eubanks, and Eric Gordon, but the largest move was moving acquiring Bradley Beal to take over Chris Paul’s spot in the lineup. The team signaled that they’re going to have a lot of faith in Devin Booker’s creation, and that should keep him as a top fantasy option this upcoming season.

Booker had career highs in field goal percentage(49.4%) and points per game (27.8) in 2022 on 20.1 shots per game. Booker’s 31.1% of the offensive usage should see a slight bump even with the Beal addition. Booker should be able to again provide efficient scoring and passing to his fellow starters, giving managers confidence he can return or exceed his current average ADP (20.1).

Outside of Booker, expect Durant to also see a fair share of the offensive usage and, of course, subsequent dips in Beal and Ayton’s fantasy output. Ayton is a solid center, but without getting to the line often or providing great numbers aside from field goal percentage and rebounding, he’s a specific asset for managers to own.

With names such as Rudy Gobert and Myles Turner, it’s obvious managers would prefer to have more formidable defensive threats or capable three-point scorers in Turner. Finding some variance at center is important, which makes it hard to raise himself higher than a top 15 fantasy center. A trade and more offensive opportunity could help, but his role will be smaller in 2023.

Keita Bates-Diop and Josh Okogie are likely fighting for the last starting spots in this lineup, with a slight edge currently to Okogie due to his one-on-one defensive ability. Okogie is a solid NBA player who will be the best overall defender in this team’s lineup, which is scary to think about for a title-hopeful team. This team will have a lot of usage go to the top two players, with a slight tier drop into Beal and Ayton, who are more likely to return back end of the top 100 value.

Hopefully, second-round draft pick Toumani Camara can show some of his tools in the upcoming G league season and give the Phoenix Suns some hope for some future depth. It’ll be a struggle to find even a top 250 fantasy asset in this team outside of the top four.

Sacramento Kings

Projected Starting Lineup

G De’Aaron Fox

G Kevin Huerter

F Harrison Barnes

F Keegan Murray

C Domantas Sabonis

Bench: Davion Mitchell, Malik Monk, Chris Duarte, Sasha Vezenkov, Neemias Queta, Trey Lyles, Alex Len,Nerlens Noel

Breakout Candidates: Keegan Murray, Sasha Vezenkov

The Sacramento Kings ended a long playoff drought in the 2022-2023 season, are a joy to watch, and have high-end talent for fantasy. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are both being drafted as top 30 assets. Sabonis had a career-high in rebounds per game and shot a scorching 61.5% from the field in 2022. He also would show his passing prowess by averaging a career-high 7.2 assists per game as well. He produced well on a relatively small usage rate (21.3%) and with a surprisingly low amount of shot attempts per game (11.9). This player doesn’t always need to ball to produce, and he should continue to ascend and return on his investment with his unselfish, efficient game.

The Kings are hoping to return to the playoffs as a top-four seed, and that’s possible with quality signings in Sasha Vezenkov and Harrison Barnes. Barnes returns for another three years and is a savvy NBA vet, but he won’t provide enough consistent value to be much more than an injury replacement or bench add for fantasy.  Maybe Barnes returns top 150 or top 200 value by the season’s end, but he’s not a player to depend on.

With newcomer Vezenkov and hopeful further development in forward Keegan Murray, we could see Barnes return even more marginalized. Malik Monk is an intriguing name to stash on your bench or to consider late in drafts. He is a good scorer who can offer some small counting numbers while providing some three-pointers and free throw efficiency. If an injury occurs with incumbent starter Kevin Huerter or Fox, expect Monk to be the one to step into a larger role.

Conclusion

The Pacific Division is a very competitive division in 2023-2024, with each team seemingly having the firepower to continue playing well into next spring. Some of these teams are very top-heavy, such as the Clippers and Lakers, meaning injuries to the top would greatly change each team’s trajectory for fantasy.

The Kings have a very deep roster but, again, have limited high-end fantasy options outside of Sabonis and Fox. The Suns will be an interesting experiment in how much shooting can be on the court at one time, while I’ll be curious to follow who steps up defensively and progresses their game.

All these teams seem to have injury issues or experience issues in the Kings’ case, but that shouldn’t matter come fantasy playoff time. Every team in this division is likely to be competing come next March, which should allow fantasy managers to confidently start talented players motivated to improve their team’s seeding.

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