NBA Southwest Division — Fantasy Basketball Outlook (2023-2024)

In 2023, the Southwest Division received a substantial facelift for the long-term outlooks and talent level of teams in the division. This is most evident in French star Victor Wembanyama being drafted by the Spurs first overall. However, this offseason also secured the Mavericks’ short-term future while the defending winners in the division, the Grizzlies, also made moves that should allow them to compete again.

In Houston, the Rockets have new coaching and will want to build up the youth in their program while having experienced veterans in the locker room. We haven’t even talked about the Pelicans, who may have the deepest roster in this division. While all teams should have fantasy contributors, not all fantasy basketball contributions are created equal.

In this article, we’ll take a look at each team’s current rotation. First, we’ll list a possible starting lineup for the team to deploy on opening night. Then, break down the early season outlook. Finally, we’ll talk about players we should expect to see reach a new level or sustain productivity. Also listed are a few potential breakouts for this upcoming season. This means a player who can take a big step into a larger role in 2023 or one who produces enough and gives a team confidence to secure a future rotational spot.

Now let’s take a first look at the Southwest Division for this upcoming season. More importantly, for fantasy basketball purposes.

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Starting Lineup

G Kyrie Irving

G  Luka Doncic

F Josh Green

F Grant Williams

C Dwight Powell

Bench: Richaun Holmes, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy, Seth Curry, Maxi Kleber, Dante Exum, Dereck Lively, Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Breakout Candidates: Josh Green, Jaden Hardy, Grant Williams

The Dallas Mavericks have had a positive offseason between their draft selections and acquisitions. With the re-signing of Kyrie Irving, the expectations of the Irving/Doncic backcourt will be to reach the conference finals and beyond. The expectations would then be for Doncic to remain a top-five option in fantasy and for Irving to return to top-20 production for 65+ games. In 2022, Doncic would record career highs in usage (36.8%) and field goal percentage (.496). Additionally, he had his lowest turnover total since his rookie season. Overall, Doncic continues to prove himself as a top asset with consistency and posted good numbers even with the addition of Irving.

This 2023 Mavericks team will rely heavily on those two players. However, there are others who could emerge and help fantasy basketball teams. Former first-round pick Josh Green has shown impressive growth in his shooting and will likely be battling for the final starting wing spot with Tim Hardaway Jr. Green is an incredible defender. In the end, that may give him the edge to crack the lineup to start the season. Green saw a jump in minutes on the court in last season’s second half, with impressive shooting stretches from January-March on limited volume.

They also traded for Grant Williams, who should fit nicely in this frontcourt. Williams has two-way ability and should see important minutes while stepping up as an offensive option at times beside the guards. With the ball handling and usage on offense being controlled by the guards, it’s important to find shooters or strong defenders in this team for fantasy. One of Green or Williams can be efficient scorers and offer enough other stats to return top 120 fantasy value in 2023.

Houston Rockets

Projected Starting Lineup

G Fred VanVleet

G Jalen Green

F Dillon Brooks

F Jabari Smith

C Alperen Sengun

Bench: Kevin Porter Jr., Jack Landale, Tari Eason, Jeff Green, Jae’Sean Tate, Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson

Breakout Candidates: Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson

When examining the 2023 Houston Rockets, it seems to be a young talented team that should grow enough that we become excited for the future by season’s end. The team has premier young talents in fourth overall selection Amen Thompson and top three 2022 pick Jabari Smith. The young players don’t stop there, as forward Tari Eason also showed he belongs at the top level last season. Not to mention, the team added veterans Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Jeff Green into a rotation along with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun.

VanVleet may be the best asset to roster on this team for the duration of his contract. VanVleet has averaged over 16 field goal attempts per game for the last three seasons on the Raptors while contributing nearly two steals each season. VanVleet hasn’t exceeded an offensive usage of 23.7% as well in those three seasons, while it’s not unusual for a star player to be involved in closer to 30% of the offensive outcomes. Now VanVleet should be the leader in Houston and be able to contribute both distributing and defensively while hopefully improving his efficiency.

VanVleet and Green should both be the primary scoring threats, while there seems to be offensive and defensive maturity from Smith in Year 2. Sengun should have more responsibility on offense and will hopefully continue growing his playmaking and become a top-10 center. This team has a lot of talent, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a shuffling of assets at some point during the season.

Finally, these players all deserve minutes. Brooks was paid to start. Thompson and Whitmore may need a significant trade of a player in front of them to see minutes this season. This is a team that could have four top 80 players while it’s possible none return top 30 value, and it could be any of them. All things considered, the points and contributions could be really spread out, making it difficult to decide each player’s value in redraft leagues.

Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Starting Lineup

G Marcus Smart

G Desmond Bane

F Luke Kennard

F Jaren Jackson Jr.

C Steven Adams

Bench: John Konchar, Ziaire Williams, Xavier Tillman, Jake LaRavia, Ja Morant (following 25-game suspension)

Breakout Candidates: David Roddy, Jake LaRavia, Ziaire Williams,

The Memphis Grizzlies made a savvy offseason trade for veteran production in the form of Marcus Smart. Unfortunately, the team will be without Ja Morant for a quarter of the season. However, that should see higher usage from players such as Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. Jackson Jr. will once again be a defensive stalwart who could be a top-20 player in the first part of the season. It’s clear, the Grizzlies will be relying on him offensively. However, if he responds with further ascension would be massive for his redraft value heading into future seasons.

In this 2023 offseason, the Grizzlies also saw the departure of backup point guard Tyus Jones. The result of these offseason moves would lead us to think Smart may be running a fair bit of the offense to start the season. Beyond Smart, there aren’t too many experienced ball handlers on this team. They did sign point guard Derrick Rose, but he’s unlikely to see a 25-minute role off the bench in 2023.

Besides the questionable offensive initiation early, this team also has a decision to make when it comes to the small forward position. Luke Kennard and David Roddy should be names to consider. Kennard can offer more shooting in the starting lineup. Last year, he shot a scorching 54% on 5.7 attempts a game from three-point range in 24 games for the Grizzlies. Meanwhile, Roddy is more of an all-around physical threat and better defensively. Kennard getting the role would make him a solid late redraft target. As his scoring, free throw percentage, and three-pointers could be difference-makers to get a fast start early next season in category leagues.

New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Starting Lineup

G: C.J. McCollum

G: Trey Murphy

F: Brandon Ingram

F: Zion Williamson

C: Jonas Valanciunas

Bench: Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr., Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, Naji Marshall, Kira Lewis, Jordan Hawkins, E.J. Liddell

Breakout Candidates: Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy

Zion Williamson’s health will be the most important factor for the Pelicans and prospective fantasy managers in 2023. When Williamson is healthy, he can be a top-15 player for fantasy. As of right now, according to average draft position (ADP) amongst multiple websites, Williamson would be about a third-round pick in 12 team standard drafts(36.2 average adp). In CBS’ ADP, he’s closer to his ceiling at 19.24, while Fantrax has him lower as about the 53rd overall player taken.

Needless to say, he is a risky asset, and managers clearly know it. Some will shoot for that ceiling. Some will not. Either way, our job is to find out who can contribute with or without Williamson out there while hoping that he is. Williamson raises this team’s ceiling in real-life basketball.

Second-year player Dyson Daniels looked smooth and larger at this year’s Summer League action. He would be a young asset who can run in transition with Williamson and provide activity on defense. Daniels and Jose Alvarado will likely be battling for minutes all season, with Alvarado offering more true point guard skills.

As is obvious, this team isn’t currently starting a true point guard. It’s more of a ball-handling-by-committee situation between McCollum, Ingram, and Williamson. Valanciunas’ rebounding and scoring numbers have regressed the last four seasons, and that may continue to happen in 2023 with a healthy Williamson and younger players needing minutes.

Furthermore, Trey Murphy became a top-75 asset down the stretch last season. We’ll see how his role stabilizes with Williamson now healthy. Murphy or incumbent Herb Jones are likely to start at the second guard position. Personally, I believe it would make sense for Murphy at this stage in their careers. They are both young, but Murphy has become a viable scoring option at the rim while providing as much as Jones can on defense. Murphy is a large forward type who can score and defend multiple positions. This should allow him to see minutes in different situations. Additionally, he shot an impressive 40.6% from three on 6.3 attempts per game and shouldn’t see the opponent’s best defenders when on the court. All in all, he has a great chance to emerge and solidify himself as a top-80 player this season with his shooting and efficiency.

San Antonio Spurs

Projected Starting Lineup

G Cameron Payne

G Devin Vassell

F Jeremy Sochan

F Victor Wembanyama

C Zach Collins

Bench: Tre Jones, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, Devonte’ Graham, Keldon Johnson, Cedi Osman, Charles Bassey, Reggie Bullock, Doug McDermott

Breakout Candidates: Victor Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham

In 2022, the breakout players on this team were center Zach Collins and guard Devin Vassell. In 2023 the caliber of breakout is on a larger scale, even to an international level, with them having taken Victor Wembanyama first overall in June’s NBA Draft. Wembanyama will take some molding, but dynasty basketball managers are taking him top five in startups for good reason. He truly has a special set of skills between his defense and scoring potential at his size. Have some patience, but he could potentially be offering top-30 performances at least by the season’s end.

I’d expect Wembanyama to hover around a top 80 player most of the season, with a late-season surge that may put him around a top 50-60 overall player by year’s end. This could be a solid playoff performer but may frustrate managers early who invest second or third-round capital. Again, patience will be key here.

As for this team, outside of the few weeks of playoffs, it should be expected that guard Devin Vassell takes another step this season. He will be a starter and a leading ball handler following a season where he would score 18.5 Points Per Game, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists across 31 minutes per game. Additionally, he provides defensive stats and three-point shooting. So far, the greatest fantasy loser is Keldon Johnson. He will likely be the player relegated to the bench to make room for Wembanyama.

However, Johnson is still a scorer who has a good deal of experience which should contribute on the bench and in spot starts. He has an ADP of 85.5 right now, which would place him as about a seventh or eighth-rounder and in one of your team’s last Flex spots. That’s not bad for a player who can bounce back in 2023, even with a different role.

Conclusion

This Southwest division is going to be heavily decided by Zion Williamson’s health and Morant’s effectiveness when he returns. Morant should change the trajectory of the Grizzlies for fantasy purposes. Certainly, this will shift the dynamics when he comes back after 25 games having Jackson Jr. as the go-to guy. With such a youthful and competitive decision, the division may not be decided until late into the season. Overall, that should allow managers to feel confident that these talented players will be able to contribute once our fantasy playoffs begin.

If you can get the top talent in Doncic, be happy and then continue to build your flexible roster from there. If you’re sitting in your redraft lobby and are struggling to find some shooting or points, don’t be afraid of the Johnson and Kennard fliers late or very late in Kennard’s circumstance. This division has talent all over the place and should provide some surprise top 120 fantasy basketball finishers in 2023.

Don’t miss out on these talented players who can help you win a fantasy basketball championship this year.

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