NFC Championship Game Player Prop Bets – Lions vs. 49ers

We are two games away from determining who will play in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. Hopefully, bettors have more money in their pockets than they started the playoffs with. Yet, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets

The NFC Championship Game is between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for the NFC Championship Game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings. Not on DraftKings? Check out PrizePicks. 

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Christian McCaffrey Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

While McCaffrey won’t win the NFL MVP award this season, he should take home the Offensive Player of the Year award. The superstar running back was outstanding during the regular season, leading the league in rushing yards (1,459), averaging 91.2 per game. McCaffrey had at least 93 rushing yards in 60% of the regular season games he finished, including five consecutive contests to end the year. More importantly, the superstar got off to a strong start in the playoffs.

Last week, McCaffrey had 98 rushing yards in the win over the Green Bay Packers, averaging nearly six yards per attempt. Despite suffering a calf injury in Week 17, the former first-round pick showed no signs of injury last weekend. Meanwhile, the Lions had one of the top run defenses in the NFL during the regular season. However, they’ve struggled during the playoffs, surrendering 5.3 yards per rushing attempt to Kyren Williams and Rachaad White over their first two contests.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Everyone called Detroit idiots for spending a top-15 NFL Draft pick on Gibbs in April. Yet, the Lions got the last laugh. The rookie running back was outstanding during the regular season, totaling 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 offensive touchdowns in 15 games. More importantly, he averaged 21.1 receiving yards per game during the regular season but has picked up his play in the playoffs. Gibbs has had at least 40 receiving yards in both games despite seeing only four targets per matchup.

Meanwhile, the 49ers gave up 36.8 receiving yards per game to running backs during the regular season, the seventh-most in the NFL. Furthermore, San Francisco primarily used Cover-3 coverage on defense this year. Gibbs led the teams in target per route run rate (31%) against Cover-3 coverage during the regular season (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Jared Goff ends up dropping it off the rookie running back often in this game.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, the 49ers might be without Deebo Samuel for the NFC Championship Game. Even if the star wide receiver can get on the field, he won’t be near 100% healthy. Therefore, Aiyuk should see an uptick in snaps and targets in this game. The former Arizona State star led the team with 1,342 receiving yards during the regular season, ranking seventh in the NFL. His 83.9 receiving yards per game were 24% more than anyone else on the team.

After struggling last week against the Packers, Aiyuk has a much more favorable matchup on Sunday. The Lions gave up the sixth-highest target per route run rate (24%) and the eighth-most receiving yards per game (121.2) to outside receivers during the regular season. Aiyuk ran over 75% of his routes out wide this year. After giving up 181 receiving yards to Puka Nacua and 147 to Mike Evans this postseason, expect Aiyuk to have his way with Detroit’s secondary.

Jameson Williams Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

The Lions have high hopes for Williams. Unfortunately, his first two years in the NFL haven’t gone according to plan. Yet, the former Alabama wide receiver flashed star potential during the regular season. He averaged 29.5 receiving yards per game in 2023, totaling 43 or more in half of the contests. Last week, the second-year player had 35 receiving yards on only two receptions in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

More importantly, Williams had a 58% target per route run rate on throws 20 or more air yards downfield during the regular season (per Fantasy Points Data), 17% higher than any other player on the team. Furthermore, he ranked second in target per route run rate among wide receivers with at least 10 targets of 20 or more air yards, finishing only behind Tyreek Hill. All it takes is one big play for Williams to hit the over on this prop bet.

George Kittle Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tight ends typically have a higher receiving yards per game average when they run most of their routes from the slot. However, Kittle has been productive despite running nearly 60% of his routes in-line. The star tight end averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game during the regular season, up 20.1% from the year before. Furthermore, he had 67 or more receiving yards in 56.3% of the games during the regular season, including three of the final five.

Kittle came out on fire last week, totaling 81 receiving yards on only four receptions. He averaged seven yards after the catch per reception and a 32.1% receiving yards market share in the victory. Meanwhile, the Lions surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season (941). Last week, Cade Otton had five receptions for 65 receiving yards against Detroit. Don’t be surprised if Kittle has his way with this struggling defense.

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