NFL Best Bets: Week 18

It’s good to be back after about a month’s hiatus where I was in the process of moving from the place that raised me in North Jersey, all the way down to sunny Florida. Couple that with family and friends coming in for the holidays for multiple weeks and things were just a little too crazy. I wasn’t thrilled that all this lined up with the Fantasy Playoffs either, and although it was a good season overall, I feel like all the moving and holidays combined took me off my game. I have been on our pod so hopefully, you have caught me there. We are pretty much fully moved in now and family and friends are freezing their nuts off again back up north, so it’s time to make myself available to you guys once again. We have one more week until the NFL playoffs and I’m excited to get these picks going as well as enter some postseason fantasy contests.

Check out what Underdog has (use the promo code Faceoff) and if you are interested in hosting your own league there are sites like MyFantasyLeague that will enable you to do that. We will be discussing playoff draft strategy on the pod next week and I may do my own breakdown here as well, so look for that. Ok, time to make sense of the hot mess that is the last week of the regular season.

Saturday

Chiefs -13 @ Broncos

KC is currently the two seed but can still get the one seed and the bye if they win and the Titans lose to Houston. The Titans don’t play until Sunday so KC should be giving it a full go on Saturday. The Broncos are a mess with Drew Lock at QB and will also potentially be missing talented corners Pat Surtain and Ronald Darby to covid. KC is also coming off a tough loss to the Bengals last week, so they will be focused and will want to get back on track before the playoffs.

Cowboys -4 @ Eagles

Both teams are suffering from some serious covid issues with the Cowboys missing Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, and Tyron Smith. Michael Gallup also hit the IR with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Philly will be without Fletcher Cox, Dallas Goedert, Avante Maddox, and three of their running backs (Boston Scott, Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard) leaving only Kenneth Gainwell. They are also missing multiple safeties and linebackers. Philly is currently in the 7th spot, but could move up to the 6th, but not sure if that helps much. Dallas is currently in the 4th spot winning the NFC East, but they could move all the way up to the two seed with a Tampa Bay and Arizona loss. Dallas has more to play for and is more likely to play their starters. “There are slight odds to potentially move up, so we want to make sure we take care of business on our end, and finish off and make sure we’re playing with momentum,” Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy said.  I’ll give the four here and expect Dallas to take control of this game on Saturday night.

Sunday

Early Slate

Lions +3.5 vs Packers

The Packers will play their starters for a quarter, possibly until the end of the 1st half, and to be honest, that could be enough to sink the Lions. Detroit has the number one pick next year no matter what happens in this game, so there will be no tanking. It might be smart to play the Pack in the 1st quarter or 1st Half then take the Lions for the game. No doubt Dan Campbell will be doing everything he can to pull off a victory. This pick will take some balls to the back and will prove to be either a sharp or a donkey pick.

Colts -15 @ Jaguars

The Jaguars are a complete disaster right now and the Colts will be playing to secure the number six spot in the playoffs. The Colts could be out with a loss. I would look for an alternative line with + odd as I think the Colts may win by 30+.

Titans -10 @ Texans

The Titans win and they have the number one seed, so best believe they will be bringing it early. There is a chance that Derrick Henry could even be activated for this game, although that doesn’t seem likely, no matter how bad Henry wants to play. Davis Mills has been playing decent football of late and there is a threat of backdoor cover, so to be safe, maybe take the Titans’ 1st half as well.

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Late Afternoon Slate

Falcons +3.5 vs Saints

The Saints are the ones playing for something as they need to win and also need the Rams to beat the 49ers to get into the playoffs. The Falcons will be trying to play spoiler at home. These teams are more even than you think and Matt Ryan can keep this game close. While the public may roll with the Saints, give me Atlanta.

Bills -16 vs Jets

The Bills are playing to win the AFC East, secure the number four seed, and will be all business against the Jets. Zach Wilson has been playing smart football the last few weeks, but Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense should have their way with the Jets’ defense. The Bills should win this game by 20+.

Sunday Night

Raiders +3 vs Chargers

Whoever wins this game is in the playoffs, although the Raiders could still get in if they lost but would need the Colts to lose to Jacksonville and Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh. That’s not happening, so this is it for both teams. If Darren Waller returns, I like the Raiders, if not I would void this game or if anything take the Chargers. The Public will likely be on the Chargers, but the Raiders can definitely win this game.

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