NFL Best Bets: Week 5
Week 5 is here and we get our first London game of the 2021 season between the Jets and Falcons. The rookie quarterbacks are starting to settle in, and the pretenders and contenders are becoming more clear. This feels like a big week, let’s get to it with NFL Best Bets: Week 5.
Sports Betting Home
London Game 9:30 EST
Jets +2.5
Zach Wilson quietly played well in his Week 1 game against Carolina before turning two duds in a row against the Patriots and Broncos. Then last week, Wilson showed the league why he was the #2 pick overall, making some incredible throws and leading the Jets to an overtime victory over the Titans. The Falcons will be without Calvin Ridley in this game and one of their best defensive backs in safety Erik Harris. The biggest reason I like the Jets in this game is their pass rush against Matt Ryan. They had six sacks against the Titans and I expect similar results in this game. Expect the Jets to win in a low-scoring game.
Early Slate
Packers @ Bengals Over 50.5
The Bengals came back and won against the Jaguars last Thursday night, with Joe Burrow leading the way. Now a much tougher test comes to town in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers are allowing 25 points per game and both teams are scoring 23 points a game. The Bengals get Tee Higgins back this week to help boost their passing game. This should be a close game with a lot of back and forth scoring which pushes over the total.
Buccaneers -10
The Dolphins are a hot mess right now, Jacoby Brissett is dinking and dunking and their offensive line can’t block. This team is simply not ready to take on the defending champs. The Buccaneers get Jason Pierre-Paul back as well and should win this game by two touchdowns.
Eagles +3
The Eagles have lost three straight since their Week 1 win against Atlanta, but two of those losses were against the Buccaneers and Cowboys. The Panthers lost their first game of the year last week against Dallas and I think they will lose again in this game. The value is on Philly and Jalen Hurts.
Patriots -8
The Texans have lost their last three games by a combined 65 points. Davis Mills is still learning how to play the position in the NFL and now comes Bill Belichick, a rookie quarterback’s worst nightmare. The Patriots could be without four starting offensive linemen, but Mac Jones will still manage this game well and put up enough points to get this cover.
Jaguars +4.5, Steelers +1.5
I pair these two together because everybody and their mother is down on these two teams right now. Urban Meyer just starred in the Urban Cowboy and Big Ben is being clowned across social media. I think both should get redemption this week, at the very least one of them will. I will root for the shunned folk amongst our society.
Consistency Score Home
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
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Late Slate
Bears +5.5
Justin Fields played well last week, avoiding rushers while making accurate throws down the field to Darrell Mooney and Allen Robinson. The Bears defense is also playing much better than I expected, they are legit. I not only expect the Bears to cover in this game, but they could win as well.
Chargers -2.5
Square pick of the day. This one seems sort of easy and maybe that’s why it will lose? Baker Mayfield hasn’t gotten into a rhythm yet and Justin Herbert is expanding on his solid rookie season. Too good to pass up, but maybe that makes me a sucker.
Giants +7, Over 52
I believe the Giants are one of the sleepers in the NFC as they have a ton of talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are out once again, but Kadarius Toney spilled his talents on the field last week and Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley also balled out. I think Daniel Jones can keep the Giants within this number and with all the talent on the field between these two teams, it should go over.
[pickup_prop id=”13068″]
Arizona -5
Trey Lance seems like the fantasy community’s favorite rookie quarterback and he will get the start this week for the 49ers. However, Lance is still developing as a quarterback and getting his feet wet in the NFL. This is a tough task against an underrated Arizona defense that is allowing a respectable 21 points per game. Kyler Murray is playing lights out while leading this offense to 35 points per game. I think Arizona wins this game rather easily.
Sunday Night Football
Bills +3
This is a rematch of the AFC Championship game last season and I think this time the Bills are more equipped to get the win. The Chiefs defense is not the same as they were last season as they are allowing 31 points per game so far. Meanwhile, the Bills are allowing just 11 points. The quality of opponents has something to do with this differential, but the Bills defense is actually good while the Chiefs is not. Look for Josh Allen to put the league on notice as he gets a huge win on Sunday night.
Monday Night Football
Ravens -7
The Colts are 1-3, with their only win coming against the Dolphins. I simply don’t trust Carson Wentz against this Ravens defense which will disguise looks and confuse him. Jonathan Taylor is going to need to run for 125+ yards and the Colts defense will need to play big if they are going to have a chance. This game may stay close for a little while, but in the end, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens defense will break it open for the cover.
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Player Props (Caesar’s)
Jets vs Falcons
Zach Wilson Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+110)
Eagles @ Panthers
DeVonta Smith Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Titans @ Jaguars
Derrick Henry Over 116.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
James Robinson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Laviska Shenault Over 5.5 receptions (+110)
Dolphins @ Buccaneers
Myles Gaskin over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Packers @ Bengals
Tee Higgins Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Aaron Rodgers Over 258.5 Passing Yards
Joe Burrow Over 259.5 Passing Yards
Saints @ Football Team
Alvin Kamara Over 110.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115)
Bears @ Raiders
Justin Fields over 205.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Allen Robinson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bills @ Chiefs
Josh Allen Over 2.5 TD passes (+140)
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 TD passes (+105)
Colts @ Ravens
Marquise Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)
Sleepers of the Week
In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Giants & Jaret Patterson, RB, WFT
Last week we discussed Kadarius Toney and Jaret Patterson. Toney balled out and will get another chance this week with Slayton and Shepard out once again. Toney could very well play himself into the 3rd wide receiver role the rest of the year. If he’s still out there go grab him if you can. The analytics say he stinks, but the tape says otherwise. Which one are you going to trust? You don’t judge players like Toney with numbers.
With Antonio Gibson nursing a stress fracture in his shin that could possibly get worse, Jaret Patterson needs to be on your radar. He didn’t look great in the two carries he got last week but he was a playmaker in college who has speed with the ability to shed tackles. He’s worth an add, especially if you are a Gibson owner.
Cole Kmet, TE, Bears
Cole Kmet is one of the more talented tight ends in the league, but after what many expected to be a breakout season for him, he’s off to a very slow start. With Fields now in the mix, this Bears offense is on a positive trajectory and Kmet should be a part of that going forward. Matt Nagy stated this week that he wants to get Kmet more involved and said “He loves tight ends”. Kmet could be out there on your waiver wire, there is a lot of upside here.
Chris Evans, RB, Bengals
We discussed Chris Evans back in Week 1 as a player to watch and he could get his chance this week with Joe Mixon possibly being out against the Packers. Evans is a talented receiving back and it’s possible he could take on a Giovani Bernard-type of role if he shows out in this game.
Thanks for reading, all the best this week. You can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.
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