NFL Best Bets: Week 9

In every way, last Sunday was an absolute horror show on Halloween.  I took the Bengals in Survivor with multiple picks and also lost Derrick Henry or Calvin Ridley on multiple teams. That said, Halloween is now over, we are in November, ready to regroup and finish this season strong. Let’s get into it with NFL Best Bets: Week 9.

Early Slate

Bengals -2.5

The Jets matchup was a clear trap game for the Bengals coming off their emotional division win against Baltimore the previous week. That said, they still should have beat the Jets handily. Now the Bengals return home and will want to get the bad taste out of their mouth and look to bounce back against a struggling Browns team that has lost three of their last four games. Look for Joey Burrow to have another good performance and for the Bengals’ defense to bounce back after their hideous performance against the Jets.

New York Giants +3

I’m seemingly almost taking the Giants every week and it hasn’t worked out very well, but I think this team is on the verge of taking the next step to becoming a playoff contender. It looks like they will have both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this week and I like the way their defense has been playing allowing just 23 points combined the last two weeks to the Chiefs and Carolina. The Raiders will be traveling to Dirty Jersey coming off the Henry Ruggs disaster, I think the Giants can win this game.

New England -3.5 (Buy down to 3 if possible)

This spread seems spot on, but I have to back the Patriots here who will either face a banged-up Sam Darnold (shoulder, concussion) or his backup P.J. Walker. There is a chance Christian McCaffrey could return this week, but even if he does, he likely won’t play his normal amount of snaps. I’m not thrilled about this matchup for Mac Jones against a formidable Panthers defense, but I think he will play smart as he has all year. They should be able to run the ball and control the game. The Patriots are 3-0 on the road this season and in their last five games, they have lost to the Bucs by two, taken Dallas to overtime, and just beat the Chargers.

Buffalo -14.5 (Buy down to 14)

This one is simple, I will take Josh Allen, the Bills defense and coaching versus Trevor Lawrence, and a James Robinson-less offense. This spread is high, but Buffalo has been blowing out teams all season and the Jags should be no exception. Buffalo will look forward to their Florida trip and be ready to roll. Allen could have five touchdowns in this game and while Lawrence has been improving, he is still a rookie who will struggle as we saw last week against Seattle.

Dallas -10

Dallas returns home after back-to-back road games and will get Dak Prescott back this week to take on a banged-up Denver Broncos team. In the Cowboys’ three home games this year they’ve beaten the Panthers, Giants, and Eagles by an average of 18 points.

Check out The FF Faceoff’s Revenge Game Tracker.

Late Slate

Kansas City -7

Jordan Love will get his first NFL start in Arrowhead against the Chiefs this Sunday with Aaron Rodgers sidelined with Covid. I expect Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to bring a lot of pressure on Love and force him to make quick decisions. In Love’s preseason game against the Bills this year, he seemed to panic under pressure throwing one horrible interception and almost throwing another. The matchup certainly isn’t scary against a poor Chiefs defense and the Packers will likely try to run the ball over 25 times if possible, but I think the Chiefs offense can get have their way with this Packers defense, forcing the game into Love’s hands. I think we are getting some value with KC here after their recent struggles.

Monday Night

Pittsburgh -6.5

Pittsburgh has now won three games in a row led by their defense and that defense and pass rush led by T.J. Watt will certainly present problems for the Bears offensive line which was terrorized two weeks ago against Tampa Bay. Justin Fields literally had no chance in that game and we could see similar results in this matchup. The Bears will also be without Khalil Mack once again and will likely be missing safety Eddie Jackson. Justin Fields is coming off his best performance of the season against the 49ers last week, but they still lost by 11. Ben Roethlisberger and this Pittsburgh offense have been painful to watch at times, but they should be able to do just enough combined with the Pittsburgh defense to cover.

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Player Props (Caesars Sportsbook)

Raiders @ Giants

Derek Carr under 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Josh Jacobs Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Josh Jacobs Under 15.5 Rushing attempts (-115)

Bryan Edwards over 3.5 Receptions (+130)

Texans @ Dolphins

Myles Gaskin over 19.5 Receiving yards (-115)

Bills @ Jaguars

Josh Allen over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+150)

Falcons @ Saints

Matt Ryan under 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Patriots @ Panthers

Damien Harris over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Chargers @ Eagles

High-Risk, High-Reward: DeVonta Smith over 99.5 receiving yards, Austin Ekeler over 99.5 rushing yards, Chargers win (+5500)

Cardinals @ 49ers

Jimmy G over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+165)

Packers @ Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+140)

Darrell Williams under 70.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-105)

Randall Cobb under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Titans @ Rams

Tyler Higbee under 3.5 Receptions (+105)

Sunday Night Special: Darrell Henderson, Adrian Peterson, Tyler Higbee and Anthony Firkser to all score a TD (+12500)

Bears @ Steelers

Chase Claypool over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

*Tune in to Monday Night’s Podcast for the Monday Night Special Prop Bet episode.

Sleepers 

In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.

Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis was a trendy pick this year, but the emergence of both Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox has taken his role out of the offense this season. However, last week with Knox out, Gabe played 45% of the snaps and found the endzone. Knox remains out and Cole Beasley is playing hurt with a rib injury, so Gabe could get similar usage this week. You could use him this week against the Jags, but this is more of a long play. Gabe is a talented player and anytime there is an injury to this wide receiver core, Davis is going to be the beneficiary. I have him stashed in a few leagues right now, you should do the same if you can.

Need more?

Check out our staff Free NFL Picks.

Other Notables 

Jeff Wilson: Discussed weeks ago, could be back this week and instantly become the starter again.

Trey Sermon: Cut in many leagues, could still have a big impact this year. Could even have an impact this week if Elijah Mitchell is ruled out.

Van Jefferson: A bigger role now with DeSean Jackson gone, played 80% of snaps last week

Bryan Edwards: Should get more looks with Henry Ruggs gone. Talent meets opportunity.

Geoff Swaim: 22 routes last week most of any Titans tight end and scored a touchdown.

Jamal Agnew: Time to take this guy seriously, led the Jags in receiving last week.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Talented player with Beckham gone, now has a featured role.

Thanks for reading, all the best this weekend, Enjoy the games! You can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy

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