NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets for Sunday Games
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
The 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the season with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business with the second round of playoff matchups.
Sunday wraps up the Divisional Round and the second round of the NFL playoffs. The first contest is between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions. We finish the slate with a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
Player Prop Bets for the NFL Playoffs
While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Sunday’s Divisional Round games.
All props and odds are from DraftKings.
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Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
The former No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick has had a solid year in Tampa Bay. Mayfield had the seventh-most passing touchdowns during the regular season (28), totaling more than Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud. Last week, he had three passing touchdowns in the upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles despite struggling to connect with Mike Evans on multiple occasions. Furthermore, Mayfield had two or more passing touchdowns in nearly 60% of the games during the regular season.
Last week, the veteran quarterback took advantage of an awful pass defense. Thankfully, he gets to do it again during the second round of the playoffs. The Lions gave up two passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in the Wild Card round despite Cooper Kupp struggling to make an impact. More importantly, Detroit gave up 1.7 passing touchdowns per game to quarterbacks during the regular season, the sixth-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers will win this game if Mayfield plays like he did last week.
Josh Allen to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-115)
Allen was outstanding in the first-round victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The superstar had completed 70% of his pass attempts, tossed three touchdowns, and added a score on the ground. Despite all the talk about limiting his rushing workload in the offseason, Allen had a career year in the run game. He had 15 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, accounting for 68.2% of the team’s total. Furthermore, the superstar finished second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
While bettors can’t call this prop bet a guarantee, it is one of the safest on the market this weekend. Allen had a rushing touchdown in over 70% of the games during the regular season, including five of the final six contests. Meanwhile, the Chiefs gave up four rushing touchdowns to running backs during the regular season, the ninth-most in the NFL. More importantly, one of those rushing touchdowns was by Allen in the Week 14 matchup between these two teams.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The former USC star has become one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. St. Brown had 1,515 receiving yards during the regular season, the third-most in the league. He averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game, up 23.3% from his previous career high in 2022. While many thought his target share would drop this season with the new rookie additions, St. Brown saw his targets per game average improve by 11% from the year before.
More importantly, he was consistent every game. The star wide receiver had 95 or more receiving yards in 62.5% of the regular season games. St. Brown has been on fire lately, averaging 112.4 receiving yards per game over the past five weeks. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers surrendered 178.6 receiving yards per game to wide receivers during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. St. Brown had 124 receiving yards in the Week 6 contest and should have a similar performance in the rematch.
Rashee Rice Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
While the 2023 NFL Draft class had four first-round wide receivers, the Day 2 picks stood out as rookies. Rice was one of the top rookie wide receivers this year. He averaged 58.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season but was outstanding after earning a full-time role. The rookie averaged 86.3 receiving yards per game over his final six matchups of the regular season, totaling 64 or more in all but one contest.
Furthermore, Rice has supplanted Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to weapon. Last week, the rookie led the team in target per route ran rate (29%), target share (24.4%), and receiving yards (130) despite running fewer routes than the veteran tight end (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Bills might be without starting nickel corner Taron Johnson on Sunday. Rice had 72 receiving yards in the Week 14 contest against Buffalo and could hit 100 in the rematch if Johnson can’t play.
Stefon Diggs Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Diggs had 1,183 receiving yards during the regular season, the 13th-most in the NFL. Yet, he averaged only 69.6 receiving yards per game, down 22.1% from last year and his lowest average since 2017. Unfortunately, the star wide receiver has struggled lately. Diggs had 100 or more receiving yards in five of the first six games. However, he hasn’t had more than 87 receiving yards in a game since Week 7.
Last week, Diggs had 52 receiving yards on nine targets against the Steelers despite star rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. missing time with an injury. More importantly, Diggs has averaged 48.6 receiving yards per game since Thanksgiving, totaling more than 48 yards only twice. Meanwhile, L’Jarius Sneed has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this year, holding wide receivers to 25.6 receiving yards per game. Diggs had only 24 receiving yards in the Week 14 matchup.
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