NFL Player Prop Bets: Chargers vs. Chiefs

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. 

Last week I had a solid start to the year. My favorite five props went 3-2. Tom Brady threw an interception, Mike Evans had 71 receiving yards, and Dalton Schultz had seven receptions. However, Ezekiel Elliott just snuck over his rushing total, while Dak Prescott barely missed his rushing total after leaving the game early with an injury. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

Tonight we have a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

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Mike Williams Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Williams was one of the top wide receivers last season. He averaged a career-high 71.6 receiving yards per game. Last year, Williams saw a 20.8% target share. On top of that, he had 82 or more receiving yards in just under half of the games last season.

While he struggled last week, totaling only 10 yards on two receptions, Williams always shows up against the Chiefs. Over his past eight matchups against the Chiefs, Williams has averaged 4.3 receptions on seven targets for 70.5 receiving yards per game. The veteran receiver has averaged 93 receiving yards per game in the past three games against Kansas City, totaling over 100 receiving yards twice. With the rookie Trent McDuffie on injured reserve, Williams should take advantage of a weakened Kansas City secondary. Not to mention, Keenan Allen is out.

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-140)

Last week, Kelce was the top tight end after pulling in eight of his nine targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. The veteran made it look easy as he tore apart the Arizona Cardinals. However, that isn’t anything new for Chiefs fans. Kelce averaged 5.8 receptions for 70.3 receiving yards per game last season with Tyreek Hill on the team. Now that Hill is in Miami, Kelce is the unquestioned No. 1 pass catcher in Kansas City.

Simply put, Kelce always steps up his play against the Chargers. In his past six matchups against Los Angeles, he has averaged 6.3 receptions on nine targets per game. Furthermore, he had at least seven receptions five times. The over/under on Kelce’s receiving yards is 75.5. A SGP (single game parlay) of over 6.5 receptions and 75.5 receiving yards pays out at +120. Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ go-to weapon and will have no trouble hitting the over on those prop bets.

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-220)

Since he entered the NFL, Herbert has been one of the top quarterbacks. He had 69 passing touchdowns in his first two seasons, averaging 2.2 per game. More importantly, Herbert threw two or more touchdowns in 12 of his final 15 games last season, including in both matchups against the Chiefs. Furthermore, Herbert has taken his game to another level when facing Kansas City.

Herbert made the first start of his career against the Chiefs in Week 2 of the 2020 season. He threw for only one touchdown in that game but rushed for another. More importantly, he has averaged three passing touchdowns per game over the other three matchups against the Chiefs in his career, throwing at least two in every contest. While the payout is less than ideal, bettors should also consider betting on Herbert to score an anytime touchdown at +340.

The third-year quarterback has eight rushing touchdowns in his career, with three coming against the Chiefs. Kansas City also gave up seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks last season, the most in the NFL. A SGP of Herbert throwing two or more touchdowns while rushing for another pays out at +800. It’s a bet I would throw a few bucks down on.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 68.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)

Edwards-Helaire, the former 1st Round draft pick has been inconsistent during his first two years in the NFL. However, he has flashed at times. Last week, Edwards-Helaire had 74 scrimmage yards on just 10 touches. Furthermore, he played only 39% of the snaps, touching the ball on 37% of his snaps. More importantly, Edwards-Helaire has averaged 15.2 touches per game and five yards per touch in his career.

Since entering the NFL, Edwards-Helaire has played three career games against the Chargers. In those games, he has averaged five yards per touch and 15.3 touches per game. The third-year running back had at least 50 scrimmage yards in all three games, totaling 70 or more twice. Last week the Chargers gave up 101 scrimmage yards to the Las Vegas Raiders’ running backs. He should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.

Josh Palmer Over 4.5 Receptions (+115)

Last year the Chargers used a third-round pick on Palmer. He struggled to have an impact as a rookie, playing only 38.3% of the snaps. Palmer split time with Jalen Guyton as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Keenan Allen and Williams. However, the former Tennessee Vol had some bright moments as a rookie. He had five games with five or more targets, averaging 4.3 receptions per game in those contests.

In the past, Palmer has sown promise when Allen or Williams missed time because of an injury. He averaged five receptions on 6.5 targets while playing 95.3% of the snaps in the two games either starter missed. With Allen out for tonight’s game because of a hamstring injury, Palmer will see an uptick in snaps and targets. As the Chiefs try to contain Williams, expect Herbert to look Palmer’s way plenty in this game.

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