NFL Player Prop Bets: Dolphins vs. Bengals

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had another solid performance, going 3-2 on my prop bets. Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper easily hit the over on their yardage props, while Diontae Johnson had two more receptions than needed to hit the over on his prop bet. However, Najee Harris just sneaked over his rushing total while Jacoby Brissett had his first two touchdown game of the year. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

Tonight we have a matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sport bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mike Gesicki Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last year Gesicki had 111 targets, the fourth-most among tight ends. His 780 receiving yards were the eighth-most among tight ends, totaling more yards than Zach Ertz or Darren Waller. However, his role has changed under new head coach Mike McDaniel. Gesicki is blocking more this season. Last year, he averaged 28.5 routes run per game, ranking third among tight ends. This year he has averaged only 16.3 routes run per game, ranking 26th among tight ends by comparison.

More importantly, he has 48 receiving yards this season, averaging 16 yards per game. Gesicki had 41 of his season total (85.4%) in one game. Furthermore, he had one reception on one target for one yard in Week 1 and one reception on one target for six yards last week. Meanwhile, the Bengals held Dalton Schultz to only 18 receiving yards two weeks ago despite him running 23 routes and seeing four targets in the game. Unless the Dolphins change their game plan this week, Gesicki has no chance of hitting the over on this prop bet.

Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-175)

After leading the Bengals to the Superbowl last year, many had high hopes for Burrow in 2022. However, things got off to a rocky start in Week 1. Burrow had five turnovers, including four interceptions, against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yet, he still had two touchdowns in the game. In Week 2, he had only one passing touchdown but bounced back last week with a season-high three touchdown passes in an impressive win over the New York Jets. Despite the early season struggles, Burrow has six passing touchdowns this season, the eighth-most in the NFL.

Last week the third-year quarterback had his way with the New York defense, throwing a touchdown once every 12 pass attempts. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been shredded by opposing quarterbacks this season. They have given up six passing touchdowns, the ninth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Miami has surrendered five passing touchdowns over the past two weeks. With a few injuries in the Miami secondary, Burrow should have no trouble throwing at least two touchdowns tonight.

Tyreek Hill Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite the drop in quarterback play from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa, Hill has remained one of the top wide receivers in the league. He has the third-most receiving yards in the NFL this season with 317. Furthermore, despite his 33-yard performance last week, Hill is only one of four players to average over 100 receiving yards per game this season. More importantly, Tyreek had at least 94 receiving yards in each of the first two games this year.

Defensively, the Bengals have shut down opposing wide receivers this season. They have held wide receivers to only 378 receiving yards, the second-fewest in the NFL. However, the Bengals have struggled to contain No. 1 wide receivers. In Week 2, the Bengals gave up seven receptions on seven receptions and 75 receiving yards to CeeDee Lamb. Then they surrendered eight or more targets to four Jets’ pass catchers last week, including Garrett Wilson, with Joe Flacco under center. Furthermore, Jaylen Waddle is nursing a groin injury, which likely means more targets for Hill. Expect the Cheetah to have his way against Eli Apple and the Cincinnati secondary.

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (-150)

While Ja’Marr Chase is the star of the Cincinnati receiving core, Higgins has been just as productive this season. The third-year receiver left the Week 1 matchup against the Steelers with a concussion after catching both of his targets. However, he has 11 receptions over the past two weeks, matching Chase. Furthermore, Higgins has been more efficient than Chase, catching a higher percentage of his targets. More importantly, the former Clemson star has at least five receptions in four of his past five regular season games.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have struggled to defend the pass this season, giving up an average of 12.3 receptions and 171.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. However, Miami has faced two limited wide receiver cores this season, taking on New England in Week 1 and Baltimore in Week 2. Last week they gave up 20 receptions to the Buffalo wide receivers, as Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie had seven receptions each. More importantly, the Dolphins’ starting cornerback Byron Jones won’t play tonight. With Xavien Howard battling against Chase, Higgins could quickly turn into Burrow’s go-to weapon this week.

Chase Edmonds Under 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

When the Dolphins signed Edmonds in the offseason, many had high hopes for the former Arizona running back. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten off to a strong start. Edmonds is averaging only 26.3 rushing yards per game this season. He has totaled under 34 rushing yards in every game this season while rushing for 25 or fewer yards twice. More importantly, Edmonds had 12 rushing attempts in Week 1 but only 11 over the past two weeks.

The reason why Edmonds’ rushing attempts have decreased is Raheem Mostert. The former San Francisco running back has earned more of a role the past two weeks. After playing 42% of the snaps and seeing five rushing attempts in Week 1, Mostert has played 55.3% of the snaps and earned 19 rushing attempts over the past two games. Meanwhile, the Bengals have held running backs to 204 rushing yards this season, the ninth-fewest in the NFL. They surrendered only 23 rushing yards to Najee Harris in Week 1. Between the increased role for Mostert and the matchup this week, Edmonds will have a quiet performance.

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em – Week 4 by @FFRabbitDad and @OBryanBren#FantasyFootball @myfantasyleague https://t.co/w82RPEJVWi

— Faceoff Sports Network (@FFfaceoff) September 28, 2022

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