NFL Player Prop Bets – Thursday Night Football (Week 7)
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 6 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business. Today, I’ll be giving you my favorite NFL player prop bets for this Week 7 matchup.
NFL Player Prop Bets – Thursday Night Football
Week 7 kicks off with Thursday Night Football. This week, we have a matchup between Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos versus Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite NFL player prop bets for Thursday’s game.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bo Nix Over 189.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Nix has been far from perfect as an NFL quarterback. Yet, the former Oregon star has played better than the betting market is giving him credit for. He has averaged 180.3 passing yards per game this season, including 188.8 per game over the past five weeks. However, Nix has averaged 221 passing yards per game since Week 1 outside of the matchup against an elite New York Jets defense in the rain, where he had 60 yards.
Furthermore, the former Oregon star has had at least 206 or more passing yards in four of the past five games, with the lone exception being against the Jets. Meanwhile, the Saints defense has been decimated by injuries. They have surrendered 300.8 passing yards per game to quarterbacks since Week 1, giving up 238 or more in every contest. More importantly, quarterbacks had 311 or more passing yards against New Orleans in three of the past four weeks.
Alvin Kamara Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Kamara’s rushing production has declined because of the Saints’ banged-up offensive line, the veteran remains a significant factor in the passing game. He has averaged 39.7 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 40 or more in all but one contest since Week 1. Furthermore, the star running back has had an 18.8% target share and 29% target per route run rate in all but one game this year (per Fantasy Points Data).
The Broncos have surrendered 195 receiving yards to running backs this season, giving up 32.5 per game. They have allowed the 10th-most targets to players running routes out of the backfield. More importantly, Denver has surrendered at least 32 receiving yards to running backs in three of the past four games. Last week, Kimani Vidal had 40 receiving yards against the Broncos on two receptions. Kamara might be the entire Saints’ offense, given all their injuries.
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Javonte Williams Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Unfortunately, Williams has had fewer than 18 rushing yards in 66.7% of the games this season. Last week, he had only 23 rushing yards on six attempts against a talented Los Angeles Chargers defense. However, the former UNC star had 61 or more rushing yards in back-to-back games before the Week 6 matchup against the Chargers. Williams has averaged 35.5 rushing yards per game this year despite the four awful performances.
More importantly, he has averaged 51.7 rushing yards per game in the three contests with at least nine attempts. Thankfully, the Broncos are favored against the Saints, meaning Williams should hit double-digit rushing attempts this week. Meanwhile, New Orleans has surrendered 141.5 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past four weeks, giving up 88 or more in every contest, including 81 or more each to Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker in Week 6.
Alvin Kamara to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-110)
Kamara has been outstanding this season. His six rushing touchdowns are the second-most in the NFL, only behind Derrick Henry (eight). His seven offensive scores have accounted for 36.8% of the team’s total. More importantly, Kamara has bounced back this year after struggling to find the end zone over the past few seasons. The veteran running back had only six total touchdowns in 2023 and 11 rushing scores over the past three years.
New Orleans’s implied team total for this game is 17 points, which might be too high. Last week, the Saints’ three touchdowns came on a punt return, a reception from Bub Means, and a run by Kamara. With Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), and Taysom Hill (ribs) all not expected to play this week, Kamara could be the entire offense, seeing a massive workload on the ground and in the air.
Devaughn Vele Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While the Broncos’ wide receiver core lacks a household name besides Courtland Sutton, Vele has played well in limited action this season. The seventh-round rookie had eight receptions for 39 receiving yards in Week 1. Unfortunately, injuries and a few healthy scratches kept him out of the lineup until last week, with Josh Reynolds (finger) placed on injured reserve. Vele had four receptions for a team-high 78 receiving yards in Week 6.
The rookie receiver has averaged 58.5 receiving yards per game this season. His 25% target per route run rate ties Sutton for the team lead this year. More importantly, Vele has run a team-high 83% of his routes from the slot. Meanwhile, the Saints have surrendered 90 or more receiving yards to slot receivers in four of their past five games. Aggressive bettors should bet Vele’s alternative line of 50 or more yards (+250).
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