Best NFL Player Props Week 13 Thanksgiving Slate
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Thanksgiving is here, meaning we have three Thursday games this week. Our early game is between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. The second matchup is between NFC East division rivals, as the New York Giants face the Dallas Cowboys. The final contest is between the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers.
Typically, I gave my five favorite prop bets for the Thursday night game. However, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, I have six prop bets this week, with one for each team playing on Thursday. Let’s dive into it!
NFL Player Props Week 13: Thanksgiving Slate
For the 2024 Thanksgiving slate, we have three games coming up. As always, we have some classic NFC North action. This year, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will be hosting rookie Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears at 12:30 PM. After that, we have two more games. Here is the full slate of Thanksgiving games:
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions at 12:30 PM, EST.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys at 4:30 PM, EST.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers at 8:20 PM, EST.
Here are the best NFL player props to target on this Week 13 Thanksgiving slate:
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
DJ Moore Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Moore hasn’t lived up to expectations in his first year with Williams under center. The star wide receiver has averaged 51.5 receiving yards per game this season, down from 80.2 in 2023. He had fewer than 54 receiving yards in seven of the first nine games, totaling 36 or less in 66.7% of those contests. However, Moore has been outstanding in the two games with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.
The star wide receiver has had seven receptions for at least 62 receiving yards in both games. Last week, Moore had a season-high 106 receiving yards against the Minnesota Vikings. Meanwhile, the Lions have surrendered the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers, allowing 187.2 per game. Furthermore, they’ve given up 7.1 receptions on 10.7 targets for 94.4 receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers, surrendering 81 or more yards in 81.8% of their matchups.
Jahmyr Gibbs to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-180)
Hopefully, David Montgomery can play against his former team on Thanksgiving. Yet, I like Gibbs to score a touchdown even if the veteran running back is active. The former Alabama star has 11 touchdowns this season, scoring at least once in 72.7% of the games. Furthermore, Gibbs has had at least one touchdown in five of the past six contests. He had two rushing touchdowns twice during the span, including last week.
Bettors should also consider betting on Gibbs to score the first Lions touchdown (+270). The star running back has scored the first Detroit touchdown in 27.3% of the games this season, including last week. Furthermore, he had the first Lions touchdown in both matchups against the Bears last year. Meanwhile, the Bears have surrendered four rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past four weeks, including one in back-to-back games.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Malik Nabers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Unfortunately, Nabers has been held back by the Giants’ quarterback situation. Yet, the star rookie receiver has been productive. He has averaged 74.6 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 64 or more in 66.7% of the contests, including last week with Tommy DeVito under center. The former LSU star is third in the NFL with 103 targets despite missing multiple games with a concussion, totaling 10 or more in 77.8% of the contests since Week 1.
While New York’s passing attack is far from elite, Nabers has an appealing matchup on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have surrendered the 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. They have given up 153.1 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, allowing 200 or more in three matchups, including last week. Furthermore, Dallas has allowed opposing No. 1 wide receivers to average 84.8 receiving yards per game since their bye week, giving up over 100 twice.
Rico Dowdle Over 2.5 Receptions (-110)
It’s no secret that the Cowboys have the worst rushing attack in the NFL. Dowdle is the lead running back but hasn’t accounted for any of the team’s three rushing touchdowns this season. However, the veteran running back is third on the team with three receiving touchdowns. More importantly, he has 29 receptions in 10 contests, averaging 2.9 per game. Dowdle has had three or more receptions in 60% of the contests.
The veteran running back has seen an uptick in targets lately. Dowdle has averaged 3.6 receptions per game over his past five contests, totaling three or more in all but one matchup. Meanwhile, the Giants have surrendered the eighth-most receptions to running backs, allowing 4.9 per game. They have given up at least three receptions to running backs in every game this year. Furthermore, New York surrendered eight receptions to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield last week.
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
Jonnu Smith Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Smith has never been a consistent contributor in his career, regardless of which team he plays for. However, the veteran tight end has averaged 48.6 receiving yards this season, nearly 30% higher than his previous career high. More importantly, he has been outstanding after totaling only 78 receiving yards over the first four weeks. Smith has averaged 65.3 receiving yards per game over the past eight weeks, totaling 45 or more in all but one matchup.
Furthermore, the veteran tight end has seen 19 targets over the past two weeks, the most on the team. Last week, Smith had a season-high 11 targets. By comparison, Tyreek Hill is the only other Dolphin with double-digit targets in a game this year, totaling 12 in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Packers have surrendered 57.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends, allowing 42 or more in 81.8% of their contests this season.
Tucker Kraft to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+230)
Let’s wrap up the Thanksgiving prop bets with another tight end. Kraft has been a scoring machine this year. The second-year tight end had two receiving scores as a rookie on 31 receptions. By comparison, he has six receiving touchdowns on 30 receptions this season. More importantly, the former South Dakota State star leads the Packers in receiving touchdowns, ranking second on the team in offensive scores behind Josh Jacobs (eight).
Last week, Kraft scored Green Bay’s first touchdown in the win over the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered four receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the 13th-most in the NFL this season. However, they’ve struggled to keep tight ends out of the end zone lately. All three touchdowns scored by tight ends against Miami this year have come over their past four contests. Furthermore, a tight end has scored the first touchdown against the Dolphins in back-to-back games, including Austin Hooper scoring the first New England Patriots touchdown last week.
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