NFL Week 5 — Free NFL Picks ATS and Best Bets

In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 5 of the NFL season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

I will be the first to admit I was wrong about the New York Giants. Fresh off a Divisional Round playoff victory a year ago, things appeared to be trending upwards in the Meadowlands. Brian Daboll won Coach of the Year after rejuvenating the career of Daniel Jones. At the same time, Saquon Barkley looked as dangerous as ever while finally staying healthy for an entire season. As a result, after making multiple splashes on the offensive side of the ball during the spring, including the additions of Darren Waller and Parris Campbell, I had New York pegged as a playoff team once again in a weak NFC.

Instead, after an embarrassing 24-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football, the Giants have been outscored 77-9 in the first half of games this year. Jones has also surrendered 22 sacks through four contests amid a flurry of offensive line injuries. This puts him on pace to shatter the record held by David Carr for the 2002 Houston Texans.

So, can New York save its season and remain in the wild card hunt late into December? With upcoming road games against the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills, they have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the league, making any hopes of a turnaround bleak. Here are the picks, coming off an 11-7 stretch over the last three weeks.

New Orleans Saints (+1) vs. New England Patriots (-1)

The Saints fell to their division rival, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Electing to start Derek Carr just one week after he suffered an AC Joint sprain against the Green Bay Packers, the veteran quarterback could not get anything going offensively. He completed just 61 percent of his passes while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.

Blown out 38-3 by the Dallas Cowboys, the Patriots suffered their worst defeat under longtime head coach Bill Belichick. Opting to pull Mac Jones late in the third quarter, the former first-round pick committed three turnovers. This included a scoop and score by Leighton Vander Esch on a sack-fumble and a pick-six by cornerback DaRon Bland. Meanwhile, in even more concerning news, the team also lost its two best defensive players, star pass rusher Matthew Judon and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez. In a game between two offenses searching for answers, look for New Orleans’s defense to contain Jones in a narrow victory.

Pick: Saints (-1)

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

In a battle for the top spot in the AFC North, the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers. Baltimore was victorious on Sunday after a shocking overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts in week 3. John Harbaugh’s group took advantage of a Deshaun Watson-less Cleveland Browns team. They held backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson to just 121 yards through the air while intercepting the 23-year-old thrice.

Pittsburgh was riding high amidst its two-game winning streak. However, the team was beaten down by the Houston Texans. Once again struggling on offense, Kenny Pickett threw for just 114 yards and an interception before the New Jersey native left the game with a knee injury. T.J. Watt and company could not get C.J. Stroud and the rest of the Texans’ offense off the field. They allowed the rookie to complete 16 of his 30 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Nonetheless, with the Steelers winning each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a loss under Mike Tomlin, 4.5 is too big a number.

Pick: Steelers (+4)

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

Looking to get back in the win column following a disastrous performance against the Browns, the Titans took it to the lowly Cincinnati Bengals in a 27-3 rout. They were led on the ground by Derrick Henry. The former NFL Offensive Player of the Year carried the ball 22 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. Additionally, he found tight end Josh Whyle on a two-yard jump pass just before halftime.

Indianapolis got back Anthony Richardson after he sat out against the Ravens in week 3 due to a concussion. Nearly leading his team to a come-from-behind win over the Los Angeles Rams, the 21-year-old helped the Colts score 23 unanswered second-half points before ultimately falling in overtime. Tennessee has won five straight matchups against their division foes. However, Richardson is already becoming one of the league’s most dynamic young players. He will make enough plays to lead his team to a win in this AFC South showdown.

Pick: Colts (+2.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)

San Francisco has been lauded by many as the best team in football through the first month. The team is currently in the top ten in the NFL in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Rolling in their win over the Arizona Cardinals, Christian McCaffrey has officially entered his name into the MVP conversation. The 27-year-old leads the league in rushing yards (459) and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns (six). Furthermore, he is also second among running backs in receiving yards (141).

Bouncing back after their shocking loss to the Cardinals, the Cowboys beat down the Patriots for their 10th consecutive home victory. The team recorded its third victory of 20-plus points already this season. Making life miserable for Jones all afternoon long, they forced the 25-year-old into three turnovers while holding him to a passer rating of 39.9. On the flip side, Dak Prescott played efficient football.

He completed 28 of his 34 passes for 261 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown strike to CeeDee Lamb. In a potential preview of the NFC Championship game, the Cowboys have the speed on defense to keep up with the high-flying playmakers on the 49ers. However, with a decided coaching advantage, expect San Francisco to pick up the win and solidify their status as the top team in the NFL.

Pick: 49ers (-3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings (O/U 52.5)

Withstanding a scare from the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs escaped with a 23-20 win. The team overcame a sub-par night from star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He tossed multiple interceptions, allowing Zach Wilson and company to erase a 17-point deficit. Now 3-1 and in possession of the top spot in the AFC, Kansas City still needs to get more production out of their young wide receiver core. Through four games, the entire group has combined to catch 45 passes for 588 yards and just two touchdowns. This is just 40 yards more than Justin Jefferson and 80 more than Puka Nacua.

Finally able to snap their winless streak to begin the season, the Vikings knocked off the Carolina Panthers in week 3. Down 13-7 heading into the halftime break, Sam Franklin intercepted a Kirk Cousins pass in the end zone. He returned it 99 yards to give his team the lead. However, behind the play of their defense, Minnesota was able to put pressure on Bryce Young. The group forced the reigning No. 1 overall pick into multiple turnovers, including a strip sack from star safety Harrison Smith. While this game features no shortage of star power, both of these defenses have held their ground to begin the year.

Pick: Under 52.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 44.5)

Green Bay kicked off week 4 with a loss to the Detroit Lions. The Packers allowed Dan Campbell and company to win their fourth straight game in the series and take a commanding lead in the NFC North. They fell behind by multiple scores in the first half for the second straight week. Detroit jumped out to a 27-3 lead at the break while outgaining Green Bay 284 to 21.

Las Vegas is suddenly entering must-win territory after falling to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Josh McDaniels’ group was without its starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. The former second-round pick missed the game due to a concussion. Forced to turn to rookie Aidan O’Connell, he completed 24 of his 38 passes for 238 yards while putting his team in a position to tie the game late before Asante Samuel Jr. picked off his pass at the Chargers’ 2-yard line to seal it.

With the status of Garoppolo still up in the air heading into Monday night, the veteran quarterback is expected to play after practicing on Thursday. As a result, with these two offenses running hot and cold to begin the year, look for them to put up points with extra time to prepare and push the total over a low number.

Pick: Over 44.5

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