Open Championship Betting Preview: Analysis and Best Bets
The final Major of the 2023 season returns to Royal Liverpool Golf Club to host the 151st Open Championship. If you’re new to betting on golf, check out the up-to-date- guide we created here.
As golf junkies know, Royal Liverpool is no stranger, as the venue will host the Open Championship for the 13th time in its career. The latest two Open’s played here were back in 2006 and 2014, where Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy both came out triumphant.
Royal Liverpool Golf Club is located in a small town called “Hoylake” which most junkies use to refer to the course. Hoylake a is flat piece of land with minimal undulation. In its early days, it was used as both a golf course and race track up until horses had been dispatched to pastures. After then, Hoylake embarked on its journey to become one of the most famous links-style courses of all time.
Hoylake is a beautiful Par 71 measuring 7,383 yards. The track was designed by Robert Chambers and George Morris in 1871, followed up by Harry Colt in 1895 and Martin Ebert in 2020. The fairways are fescue, rough is fescue, and the greens are Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Fescue. Some key changes that were made to the course include: 73 extra yards, par 72 to par 71, brand new par-3 17th, 10th hole changed from a 532-yard par 5 to a 507-yard par 4.
As always, coastal tracks are weather dependent. Tough to say if we will be seeing treacherous winds or not this week. However, it certainly will be something to monitor throughout the week.
Top 70 and ties will make it to the weekend. Needless to say, it should be a memorable one in Northwest London.
The Open Championship: Past Winners
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-20)
- 2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
- 2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
- 2018: Francesco Molinari (-8)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
- 2016: Henrik Stenson (-20)
- 2015: Zach Johnson (-15)
- 2014: Rory McIlroy (-17) (Royal Liverpool)
- 2013: Phil Mickelson (-3)
- 2012: Ernie Els (-7)
- 2011: Darren Clarke (-5)
- 2010: Louis Oosthuizen (-16)
Royal Liverpool: Stats for Success
Below you will find the most important stats at Hoylake and see which golfers fit the mold. All over the player’s last 36 rounds.
All stats and model references come from rickrungood.com
Strokes Gained: Approach
Looking at a player’s recent approach play tends to tell you if they are playing well or not. Dialing second shots parlayed with elite long irons will be the difference.
Strokes Gained: Weighted Approach (L36 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler +2.56
- Jon Rahm +1.99
- Hideki Matsuyama +1.73
- Collin Morikawa +1.69
- Russell Henley +1.59
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
The name of the game is to be in the fairway this week. Overall, there is too much of a penalty for wayward driving. Tiger pretty much hit his 2-iron off the tee every hole just to keep in the fairway. Needless to say, it’s no surprise that he won.
Strokes Gained: Weighted Off the Tee (L36 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler +1.72
- Rory McIlroy +1.66
- Patrick Cantlay +1.56
- Viktor Hovland +1.30
- Min Woo Lee +1.09
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Ball Striking takes into account total driving and greens in regulation. You are going to have to be an elite shotmaker to get it done at an Open Championship. Plain and simple.
Strokes Gained: Weighted Ball Striking (L36 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler +4.29
- Patrick Cantlay +3.01
- Rory McIlroy +2.92
- Jon Rahm +2.91
- Viktor Hovland +2.70
Strokes Gained: Par 5 Scoring
Par 5 scoring is constantly flying under the radar. This week at Hoylake, it is going to be extremely important to take advantage of the 3 par 5’s. Furthermore, the winning score this week will mostly likely be in the mid-teens to twenty. Needless to say, doing your job on the par 5s will pay dividends.
Strokes Gained: Par 5 (L36 Rounds)
- Rickie Fowler
- Scottie Scheffler
- Patrick Cantlay
- Adam Schenk
- Sepp Straka
Strokes Gained: Opportunities
Opportunities simply refer to birdie putts within 15 feet. Given how low the scores should be this week, it will be vital to find yourself with birdie looks.
Strokes Gained: Opportunities (L36 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler +7.00
- Hideki Matsuyama +6.83
- Collin Morikawa +6.47
- Patrick Cantlay +6.39
- Keegan Bradley +6.26
2023 Open Championship Picks
Viktor Hovland +2200 (DraftKings)
It truly has been a joy to see Hovland mature before our eyes. The first time I laid eyes on Hovland he received low amateur at the 2019 Masters. Being battle-tested every which way throughout his career has only made him stronger and better. Overall, this place sets up so well for the Norwegian. Hitting fairways, elite long iron play, and staying true to his strategy. Hovland can play with anybody down the stretch. Highly confident we will see him in the mix come Sunday.
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (FanDuel)
We can talk about the number in a little bit but let’s just digest Cantlay as a player to start. Is he one of the stronger players in the field hitting fairways? Yes. Is he one of the stronger players in the field in the ball-striking category? Yes. Is he one of the stronger players in the field scoring on par 5s? Yes. Overall, he fits three of the main stats at Hoylake and does them all at a very high level. This number on Cantlay I simply cannot pass up. Would do anything to see Cantlay hoisting the Claret Jug come Sunday.
Dustin Johnson +3300 (FanDuel)
It would be hard for me not to take Dustin Johnson this week. Or any major for that matter. All things aside, Dustin Johnson is one of the best major performers we have seen in this generation. Not to mention, he’s unreal in Open Championships, finishing in the T10 in six of his last 13 Open Championships. He came in 6th last year at St. Andrews. This is a no-brainer pick for me. All based on sheer talent and dominance in majors. Finally, don’t forget folks, major championships are a different breed.
Bryson DeChambeau +6600 (PointsBet)
Although this might come as a surprise, don’t be shocked to see Bryson in the mix on Sunday. Royal Liverpool seems like a course that lowkey fits his style off the tee given the lack of undulating fairways. This will enable Bryson to dial back slightly, but still outdrive the entire field with just more control. After a T8 finish last year at St. Andrews, I’ll gladly eat up a number in the 60s for the 29-year-old scientist.
Adam Scott +8000 (FanDuel)
Imagine the wonders it would do for Adam Scott’s career if he picks up another major. Finished 5th here back in 2014. Three T5 finishes in Open Championships. Great links-style player. Needless to say, this number is too good to pass up on here. Aussie! Aussie! Aussie!
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