Sunday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Bills vs. Dolphins

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 18 of the 2023 NFL regular season is nearly here. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started last week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Sunday night, we get a winner-takes-it AFC East matchup between Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills and Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite player prop bets for Sunday night’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)

Tagovailoa has 28 passing touchdowns this season, the fifth-most in the NFL. He started the year on fire, tossing eight passing touchdowns over the first three games. However, the star quarterback has struggled lately. Tagovailoa has only four passing touchdowns over the past four weeks, totaling more than one only once. Furthermore, he has played better at home than on the road, averaging two passing touchdowns per game in Miami. However, Tagovailoa has struggled at home lately.

After totaling 14 passing touchdowns over his first five home games, the former Alabama star has had only two in the past home contests. One of those games was an appealing matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Yet, Tagovailoa had zero passing touchdowns in that game. Meanwhile, the Bills have held quarterbacks to 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. They’ve kept quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in nearly 70% of the games, including Tagovailoa in the Week 4 matchup.

Josh Allen to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-135)

While Allen’s passing numbers have regressed from last year, the superstar quarterback has had a career season on the ground. He leads the team with a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns, accounting for 68.2% of the team’s rushing score total. The next closest Bill is Latavius Murray, with four. More importantly, Allen has had two rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games, totaling one or more in 75% of the contests, including nine of the past 10.

Furthermore, the superstar has the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL, behind Raheem Mostert. Allen has accounted for 41.2% of the team’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard line this year. He ranks 12th in the league in rushing attempts (14) and sixth in rushing scores (eight) inside the five-yard line (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (five), including one to Allen earlier this season.

De’Von Achane to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-125)

Last week, Achane had his first featured game, with Raheem Mostert missing the contest with an injury. Unfortunately, the veteran and his NFL-high 18 rushing touchdowns and 21 offensive scores won’t play for the second consecutive game. Therefore, Achane to score an anytime touchdown at -125 is a steal. Despite playing in a limited role and missing time, the rookie has 10 offensive touchdowns in 10 games. Furthermore, the former Texas A&M star had two touchdowns in the early matchup against the Bills this year.

Meanwhile, the Bills have surrendered only eight rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores to running backs this season, both ranking as the 10th-fewest in the NFL. However, Buffalo has struggled to contain opposing backfields with explosive runners. They gave up two rushing touchdowns to Miami’s backfield in the Week 4 matchup. More importantly, the first offensive touchdown scored against the Bills has been a rushing one in 43.8% of the games, including the contest earlier this year against the Dolphins.

Gabriel Davis Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anyone who had Davis on their fantasy football team this season knows how frustrating the wide receiver can be each week. Despite having four games with zero receiving yards this year, the wide receiver has still averaged 46.6 yards per game in 2023. Davis is capable of big performances with a low number of targets. He has had 56 or more receiving yards in nearly half of the games, including 61 in the Week 4 matchup against Miami on only three targets.

The Dolphins have surrendered 152.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, ranking in the middle of the league. However, they’ve struggled against good offenses. Miami has given up 189 or more receiving yards to wide receivers in six games, including the matchup against Buffalo in Week 4 and back-to-back contests. More importantly, Xavien Howard won’t play this week, meaning Eli Apple and his 65.5% catch rate and 13.1 yards allowed per reception (per PFF) will spend most of the game covering Davis.

Tyreek Hill Under 92.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite some talk about winning MVP, Hill will have to settle for the Offensive Player of the Year award instead this season. Yet, even that might slip through his fingers. The superstar wide receiver leads the NFL in receiving yards, averaging 114.5 per game. However, CeeDee Lamb is right on his heels. Unfortunately, Hill has struggled lately after a hot start. He hasn’t had 100 receiving yards since Week 13, totaling 76 or fewer yards in all but one contest over the past month.

More importantly, the superstar has had issues against top pass defenses. The Bills have held wide receivers to 128.5 receiving yards per game, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, they limited Lamb to only 53 receiving yards on 10 targets in Week 15. When these two teams faced off earlier this year, Hill had only 58 receiving yards, his second-lowest total this season. Expect Buffalo to do everything to keep the superstar from beating them in this game.

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