Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bets – 49ers vs. Chiefs

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Super Bowl LVIII is less than a week away, meaning the 2023 NFL season is nearly over. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the year with. However, we have one last game to make some money before the off-season arrivals.

The San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LVIII.

All props and odds are from DraftKings. Not on DraftKings? Check out PrizePicks. 

Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)

While Mahomes didn’t have a superstar level of production during the regular season, the former Texas Tech finished eighth in the NFL in passing touchdowns. He averaged 1.7 passing touchdowns per game during the regular season, totaling two or more in over half of the contests. However, the former MVP winner has struggled to put the ball in the end zone during the playoffs. Mahomes has only four passing touchdowns in three postseason games.

However, the superstar quarterback had a matchup against the Miami Dolphins in the freezing cold and another against an elite Baltimore Ravens pass defense, tossing only one touchdown in both games. Yet, Mahomes had a pair of touchdown passes against the Buffalo Bills. More importantly, the superstar has averaged 2.3 passing touchdowns per game during his postseason career. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in two of three Super Bowl matchups, including the one against the 49ers in 2020.

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Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

McCaffrey was the top running back during the regular season. He led the NFL in rushing yards, totaling 1,459. The superstar averaged 91.2 rushing yards per game, a career-high. While McCaffrey had some poor performances, the former Stanford star had at least 93 rushing yards in 60% of the regular season games he finished. Furthermore, the superstar running back had 100 or more rushing yards in nearly half of his healthy regular season contests.

Despite ending the regular season suffering a calf injury, McCaffrey has played well during the playoffs. He had 90 or more rushing yards in both postseason matchups, including in the NFC Championship Game against an elite Detroit Lions run defense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs surrendered 86.9 rushing yards per game to running backs during the regular season, giving up 104 or more yards in over a third of the contests. Expect a big performance from the superstar running back.

Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

I don’t understand why Pacheco’s rushing yardage prop bet line isn’t higher. The second-year running back averaged 66.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season, totaling 110 or more in nearly a fourth of the contests. More importantly, the star running back has picked up his play during the postseason. After averaging 65.7 yards per game last postseason, Pacheco has averaged 84.7 yards per game this year, totaling 68 or more in every matchup.

Meanwhile, the 49ers had one of the top run defenses in the NFL during the regular season. They surrendered only 1,097 rushing yards to running backs, the second-fewest in the NFL behind the Detroit Lions. However, San Francisco has struggled to slow down opposing rushing attacks during the postseason. Aaron Jones had 108 rushing yards against them in the Divisional Round, while David Montgomery totaled 93 yards in the NFC Championship Game. Pacheco will run through the 49ers defense.

Deebo Samuel Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The star wide receiver played in the NFC Championship Game despite suffering a shoulder injury in the win over the Green Bay Packers. Samuel had an impressive performance, totaling 89 receiving yards in the title game. However, he faced a Detroit Lions secondary that had been one of the friendliest to wide receivers all year. By comparison, Samuel averaged 59.5 receiving yards per contest during the regular season, totaling 55 or fewer in 60% of the games.

Furthermore, the veteran wide receiver had struggled before the matchup against the Lions. He averaged 35.4 receiving yards per game over his previous five matchups, totaling 48 or more in every contest. More importantly, Samuel won’t have an easy matchup in the Super Bowl. L’Jarius Snead has helped shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers all season. The Chiefs held Stefon Diggs to only 21 receiving yards in their playoff matchup. Samuel could be in for a long day on Sunday.

Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Some believe we could have the first-ever tight end Super Bowl MVP winner this year with Kelce and George Kittle in this game. However, that is unlikely to happen. Yet, expect Kelce to have a massive performance, especially if the Chiefs come away with the win. The veteran tight end averaged 65.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season, his lowest average since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter.

Yet, you don’t want to bet against Kelce in the postseason. The future Hall of Fame tight end has averaged 89.2 receiving yards per game in 17 career playoff games with Mahomes under center, recording at least 71 yards in 12 consecutive matchups. Meanwhile, the 49ers have surrendered 72 or more receiving yards to tight ends in four of their past six games, including 97 to Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship Game. Expect a big performance from Kelce.

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