The Most Consistent Fantasy Football Running Backs of 2022
We often use past success as a way to project for the future in fantasy football. However, what was truly successful and what is a shiny mirage of success often can get muddled up together. Further complicating this exercise in futility is the factor of time.
From the end of the fantasy season to the start of the preseason our minds can get fixated on a strong three-game stretch at the end of the year that propelled us through the playoffs. That, or a single week where a stud turned dud for one game and cost you that final playoff spot.
So in this series, we’re going to use our Consistency Score metric to review how the running backs truly performed for fantasy football this past season.
As a reminder, the Consistency Score (CS) is a pretty simple metric. The higher the CS, the more consistently that player scores a high level of fantasy points. It takes into account, not just consistency (let’s face it, five to six points every single week may be “consistent” but isn’t very helpful), but also the ceiling. If a player can “blow up” for 25+ points, that’s going to be far more valuable than someone who simply doesn’t have that potential.
If you want to read more about CS itself, please check out this article breaking it all down.
Also, for this article, I’m going to be using 0.5-PPR scoring and comparing fantasy football points per game versus CS rankings. Let’s get right into it, reviewing the most consistent running backs in fantasy football from 2022.
Running Back Rankings
Top-12 PPG
- Austin Ekeler – 19.51
- Christian McCaffrey – 18.65
- Josh Jacobs – 18.49
- Derrick Henry – 18.2
- Saquon Barkley – 15.97
- Nick Chubb – 15.45
- Tony Pollard – 15.16
- Breece Hall – 15.09
- Joe Mixon – 13.96
- James Conner – 13.63
- Dalvin Cook – 13.5
- Aaron Jones – 13.3
Top-12 Consistency Score
- Christian McCaffrey – 8.42
- Austin Ekeler – 7.88
- Derrick Henry – 7.54
- Josh Jacobs – 7.36
- Saquon Barkley – 6.97
- Nick Chubb – 6.59
- Joe Mixon – 6.56
- Breece Hall – 6.46
- Najee Harris – 6.3
- Leonard Fournette – 5.68
- Tony Pollard – 5.25
- Aaron Jones – 5.19
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Biggest Movers
Najee Harris 6.3 CS – PPG Rank 22nd / CS Rank 9th (+13)
Najee Harris did not live up to his first-round draft price, and the expectations of being the RB6 on draft day (according to FantasyPros ADP). But he may have been more valuable to your team than it felt.
He was a Top-24 player in 52.94% of games played. It’s just that most of that was in the RB2 (13-24) range. A big part of his CS success was his relatively safe floor. At 5.1 only 5 other RBs had a higher floor; Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler. Pair that with his Week 11 25.6 output and it becomes apparent that he never completely killed you in a week, but he did have the ability to carry your team to victory all by his lonesome.
For Harris the main ingredient is volume. Throughout the season he averaged 27.93% of the total team offense per week and a whopping 68.09% of the team’s offensive snaps which ranked ninth among running backs.
The Steelers’ offense as a whole sputtered and stalled a lot in 2022. If Kenny Pickett takes the next step as a sophomore signal caller, Harris will be a direct beneficiary as a mainstay on the field. Additionally, with the bad taste he left with many fantasy managers this season, he should be a good draft value in 2023.
Miles Sanders 4.14 CS – PPG Rank 14th / CS Rank 22nd (-8)
Miles Sanders managers felt far more optimistic at the end of the year than Najee Harris managers. And considering he was the 31st running back taken according to ADP, that’s understandable. He was a much better value.
But it might surprise most fantasy managers that he finished the season with just as many Top-24 games as Harris, 52.94% of his games this season. And when I came across that stat, it cemented why I was doing this exercise in the first place.
While Sanders had three games with an impressive ceiling of just under 30 fantasy points. That includes Week 14 of the fantasy playoffs, he also had five games with less than six fantasy points scored. Furthermore, in the weeks immediately before and after each one of his “explosive” games, he was an RB2 or worse.
Likely a large factor in Sanders up-and-down nature was the nature of the Eagles backfield split. While he did dominate backfield snaps with 59.8% compared to Kenneth Gainwell’s 28.9%, it’s still drastically less than Harris’ 68.09%
Factor in a running quarterback stealing goal-line opportunities and Sanders is a truly volatile fantasy asset. Some weeks, he can take over a matchup. All that being said, he’s simply not a player you can rely on as your RB1.
Jamaal Williams 3.82 CS – PPG Rank 18th / CS Rank 27th (-9)
No one in the NFL had more rushing touchdowns in 2022 than Jamaal Williams. He was the best running back value in the draft, as the 52nd running back according to ADP. Despite that, he finished 12th in total points and 18th in PPG. All that said, nothing I’m about to write can diminish that.
However, it will more than likely not happen again in 2023.
First of all, his ADP is bound to be much higher after such a season. So already his status as a value decreases.
Secondly, much of his usage was while fellow Lion D’Andre Swift missed time. While for the season, he averaged only 38% of the running back snaps, in Weeks 3 through 7 that jumps up to 46% of the team snaps and he averaged 26.93% of the total offense. However, from Week 10 on, he averaged only 31.9% of the running back snaps and 22.5% of the offense.
Finally, his CS of only 3.82 nails the coffin shut. In games where Williams didn’t score a rushing touchdown he, essentially, ghosted your team. In those seven games, he averaged only 5.77 fantasy points. Additionally, his median was a mere 6.5 fantasy points, and he finished better than RB34 only once over that span. To make matters worse, he was a non-factor in the passing game with only 12 receptions for 73 yards and no receiving touchdowns on the season.
Williams is a top-tier handcuff to Swift with some stand-alone Flex value in the right matchups. However, one look at his CS will tell you, he can’t be an every-week starter.
Honorable Mention
Breece Hall 6.46 CS – PPG Rank 8th / CS Rank 8th (+/-0)
It’s just worth mentioning how good Breece Hall was while he was healthy and on the field. For fantasy managers who just look at total points scored, or who are worried about him coming off the injury, I want to remind you that he was one of the top fantasy running backs for the seven weeks he played during his rookie season. He was fantastic and should be great for years to come.
In Weeks 3 through 6 (he was injured in Week 7) he dominated with 32.8% of the Jets’ total offensive production. Even though Hall played in only seven total games this season, his 105.6 fantasy points were still the most of any of the running backs on the team. As for the rest of the backfield, in 15 games, Michael Carter came in second with 104. Combine that with his top-10 CS and an impressive median fantasy points of 13.2, despite being on a mediocre offense, and it’s easy to see that Hall, if fully healthy, is going to be well deserving of a top pick in the summer.
The Jets have a lot of work to do this off-season. However, finding a star running back isn’t one of them. If your league-mates are hesitant to draft Hall this upcoming summer, take the injury discount and enjoy a top-tier fantasy running back for a fraction of the draft day cost. Hall is going to bounce back and will be great for years to come, especially for your dynasty teams.
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