Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Broncos vs. Chiefs

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/8/23

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+154)

Unfortunately, the Broncos haven’t found success getting wins this year. However, Wilson has returned to his old form. The veteran quarterback has 11 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL. Furthermore, he has more passing touchdowns than several big-name superstars, including Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow. More importantly, Wilson has thrown at least two touchdowns in all but one game. He has more contests with three passing touchdowns (two) than fewer than two (one).

Last year, the veteran averaged two passing touchdowns per game against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s pass defense was excellent to start the season, giving up only one combined passing touchdown to Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. However, things have changed over the past two weeks. Since Week 3, the Chiefs have given up four passing touchdowns, the fourth-most in the NFL. Zach Wilson and Kirk Cousins each had two passing scores against Kansas City. The Broncos will trail most of the game, giving Wilson plenty of opportunities to throw a pair of touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Despite having a less than 100% Travis Kelce and a wide receiver unit filled with drops and inexperience, Mahomes hasn’t looked any different than he did a year ago when the superstar led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards. While Mahomes is seventh in the NFL in passing yards, he has averaged 257.4 yards per game this season. However, the superstar has averaged 265.3 passing yards per game in the four contests with Kelce on the field, totaling 272 or more yards three times. Furthermore, Mahomes has averaged 271 passing yards per game this season outside of a matchup against a talented New York Jets defense.

More importantly, the Broncos have had arguably the worst passing defense in the league this year. The AFC West division rivals have surrendered 1,409 passing yards, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have given up at least 299 passing yards to every quarterback not named Zach Wilson since Week 1. Mahomes has had at least 270 passing yards in four of the past five matchups against Denver, including 328 or more in both contests last year. This game will be like shooting fish in a barrel for the MVP front-runner.

Javonte Williams Over 1.5 Receptions (-160)

Williams has struggled with injuries since the start of last season, playing in only 36.4% of the contests. However, he has been productive when on the field this year. The former UNC star has at least two receptions in every game this season, averaging 2.8 per contest despite playing only 17% of the snaps in Week 4. Furthermore, Williams has averaged 3.8 receptions per game in the six contests he played start to finish since the start of last year.

Meanwhile, the Denver offense wants to get their running backs involved in the passing game. According to Fantasy Points Data, Russell Wilson is fourth among qualifying in checkdown rate (16.6%) this season. Furthermore, he ranks second in that category (20.6%) on first and second down. That’s important because Williams has rarely played on third down this year. All 14 of his targets and 86.5% of his route run have come on first or second down. Don’t be surprised if the star running back hits the over on this prop bet before halftime.

Rashee Rice Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

The Chiefs haven’t gotten consistent play from their wide receiver unit this season. While many had high hopes for Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, Rice appears to be the most likely breakout candidate on the roster. Despite ranking sixth on the team routes run this year (60), the rookie receiver is second in targets (24) and third in receiving yards (173). More importantly, the former SMU star has been at his best against Cover-3 coverage.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Rice is deemed open or to have a step of separation on 72.2% of his routes against Cover-3, averaging 14.3 yards per reception. Meanwhile, the Broncos play Cover-3 more than any other coverage this year, using it on nearly a third of their defensive dropbacks. Denver has given up a reception to the slot receiver on over 25% of the dropbacks when using Cover-3. Rice plays 70% of the time in the slot. This week might be the breakout performance everyone wants to see from the former SMU star.

Marvin Mims Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anyone with Mims on their fantasy football team has to be ready to rip Sean Payton’s head off. The former Oklahoma star leads the team in receiving yards (246) and is third in air-yard share (20.1%). However, he ranks sixth in routes run (50) and targets (12). The rookie is less involved in the offense than Adam Trautman and Samaje Perine. Yet, I am still betting on Mims to hit the over on this prop bet because of his big-play ability, Russell Wilson, and the matchup.

Kansas City’s defense has struggled with the deep ball this season. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Chiefs rank fifth in deep throw attempt percentage (14.1%). Furthermore, they rank third from last in checkdown attempt rate (5.9%) this year. Meanwhile, Wilson is eighth among qualifying quarterbacks in deep throw attempt rate (13.5%). Mims has averaged 49.2 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 47 or more in three contests despite having only 2.3 receptions per game in those matchups. All the rookie needs is one downfield shot to hit the over on this prop bet.

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