Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets, Buccaneers @ Bills

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 7 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business for this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Tamp Bay Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/21/23

Josh Allen Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-115)

While the Bills have a 4-3 record, Allen has played well. The superstar quarterback has averaged 263 passing yards per game this season, the eighth-most in the NFL. However, he has averaged 267.5 passing yards per game since his awful Week 1 performance against an elite New York Jets defense. Allen has totaled at least 265 passing yards in three of the past four games. Furthermore, the superstar has two games with over 300 passing yards, the sixth-most in the league. Needless to say, he can certainly hit this player prop bet in this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks this year. They have surrendered the 16th-most passing yards to quarterbacks, giving up 260.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay held an injured Derek Carr to only 127 passing yards in Week 4. However, the Buccaneers have surrendered 287 passing yards per game in their other five games this season, giving up 277 or more three times. Furthermore, they surrendered 250 passing yards on only 25 attempts to Desmond Ridder last week.

Rachaad White Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Many had high expectations for White in his second NFL season. Unfortunately, the former Arizona State running back has struggled. He has averaged 44.3 rushing yards per game this year, totaling 40 or more only twice. However, the second-year running back has faced multiple elite rushing defenses. Over the past two weeks, White has faced the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions. Those two teams have held running backs to only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt in 2023. Thankfully, his matchup on Thursday Night Football matchup is significantly more appealing.

Buffalo has suffered multiple season-ending injuries on defense, including to defensive tackle DaQuan Jones. The Bills have surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs this year, giving up 100 yards per game. Furthermore, they have been awful over the past month, surrendering 106.8 rushing yards per game to running backs, including three games with 108 or more yards. More importantly, Buffalo has given up 20 or more yards on 5.2% of the rushing attempts against them this season, the most in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data).

Josh Allen to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+135)

The Bills wanted to cut back on the superstar’s rushing attempts to protect his long-term health. Allen has averaged only 4.1 rushing attempts per game this season, putting on pace for a career-low 70 attempts for the year. However, Buffalo is still featuring their superstar quarterback near the goal line. The former Wyoming star leads the team with four rushing touchdowns, accounting for half the team’s total in 2023. He has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the past five games.

Furthermore, Allen has four rushing attempts inside the five-yard line this season, the second-most on the team. Yet, he leads the Bills in rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line (two), scoring at a 50% rate. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have had trouble with mobile quarterbacks this year. They have surrendered three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the third-most in the NFL. Last week, Tampa Bay surrendered one rushing touchdown to Desmond Ridder and nearly a second, if not for a boneheaded fumble by the quarterback at the goal line.

Mike Evans Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I can’t explain why the number for Evans’ receiving yardage isn’t higher. The veteran wide receiver has played well this year, averaging 78 receiving yards per game, his highest average since the 2019 season. Furthermore, the former Texas A&M star has been Baker Mayfield’s favorite target, accounting for 34.3 of the team’s receiving yard market share (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Evans has had at least 60 receiving yards in all but one of his healthy games this season.

Since losing Tre’Davious White in Week 4, Buffalo has surrendered 171 receiving yards per game to wide receivers despite facing the New York Giants and New England Patriots in two of those matchups. Furthermore, they gave up 63 receiving yards to Kendrick Bourne last week. According to Fantasy Points Data, Evans has dominated against Cover-3, averaging a 37% target per route run rate and 17.64 yards per reception. The Bills primarily play Cover-3 defense, meaning the star receiver is prime for a big performance.

James Cook Over 72.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

Everyone around the Bills organization had high hopes for Cook in his second NFL season. The former Georgia running back has played well, averaging 59.9 rushing yards per game, the 18th-most in the league among players with at least three games played. Furthermore, he has averaged 26.6 receiving yards per game, the 13th-most among qualifying running backs. Not only has the second-year player averaged 86.5 rushing and receiving yards per game this season, but Cook has also had 71 or more yards in all but one game since Week 1.

Tampa Bay has had a solid run defense this year, holding running backs to 80 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they have surrendered 37.2 receiving yards per game to running backs. While the Buccaneers are allowing opposing running backs to average 117.2 rushing and receiving yards per game against them, they have given up 170 or more yards to the position in two of their past four contests. More importantly, Cook will get most of the workload, accounting for 64.6% of the rushing yards and 67.9% of the receiving yards out of the backfield this year.

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