Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Chargers Raiders

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 14 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Easton Stick Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Unfortunately, the Chargers will be without Justin Herbert for the rest of the year because of a finger injury. The superstar quarterback averaged 253.2 passing yards per game this season before leaving last week’s matchup early. Stick will make his first career start against the Raiders. More importantly, he had one pass attempt for four yards before Sunday’s loss to the Denver Broncos. Despite playing only 54% of the snaps, the former North Dakota State star had 179 passing yards on 24 attempts.

Denver had held quarterbacks to only 220 passing yards per game over their past four contests before facing the Chargers. Therefore, bettors should be encouraged that Stick had nearly 180 passing yards in a half. Meanwhile, the Raiders gave up only 146 passing yards to the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterbacks last week. They gave up 263 or more passing yards to quarterbacks in four of the previous five matchups, surrendering 271.6 per game. However, bettors should still take the under on Stick’s passing yards with Keenan Allen out this week because of a heel injury. He simply won’t have the weapons needed to reach 200 passing yards.

Austin Ekeler Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

With Justin Herbert out of the year, Ekeler should see an increase in rushing attempts moving forward. The star running back has averaged 49.7 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has been better lately. Over the past five weeks, Ekeler had 51 or more rushing yards in three games, including last week against the Denver Broncos, despite seeing only 10 attempts. While the veteran didn’t play in the Week 4 matchup against the Raiders, Joshua Kelley had 65 rushing yards in the win.

After starting the year with an awful run defense, Las Vegas has surrendered 76 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past four weeks. However, the Raiders gave up 93 or more twice in those four contests. Furthermore, running backs have had at least 60 rushing yards in all but one game against Las Vegas in 2023. The Chargers might eventually shut down Ekeler with the season over. Yet, expect him to see a high workload against the Raiders.

Davante Adams Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-165)

This prop bet is an alternate line for Adams. The traditional over/under on his receiving yards is 67.5 (-115). However, I am fearful the star wide receiver will miss the over on 67.5 receiving yards but a few. The Raiders haven’t named their Week 15 starting quarterback as of Wednesday afternoon. Adams will be the team’s most heavily targeted player on Thursday night, especially if Josh Jacobs doesn’t play with an injury. The star wide receiver has averaged 66.7 receiving yards per game this year.

Furthermore, Adams has averaged 67.2 receiving yards per game in the six contests Aidan O’Connell started. By comparison, he averaged 75.6 receiving yards per game in the five contests that Jimmy Garoppolo finished this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers have surrendered 174.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the fifth-most in the NFL. After having 75 receiving yards in the Week 4 matchup against the Raiders, Adams should have no trouble totaling at least 59 in the rematch.

Austin Ekeler Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)

Ekeler will get more rushing attempts, with Easton Stick taking over under center. However, the veteran running back will also see more targets with the inexperienced quarterback. He has averaged 3.6 receptions per game this year, totaling four or more in 60% of the contests. Furthermore, Ekeler has averaged four receptions per game over the past three weeks, totaling five or more twice, including last week. More importantly, three of his five receptions and five of his seven targets last week came with Stick on the field.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have struggled to defend running backs in the passing game. They have given up the 12th-most receptions to running back this season, surrendered 4.9 per contest. Furthermore, opposing quarterbacks have targeted a player coming out of the backfield 18.5% of the time against Las Vegas in 2023, the 10th-highest rate in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Ekeler hits the over on this prop bet before halftime.

Khalil Mack Over 0.75 Sacks (-145)

Last week, Mack didn’t record a sack in the loss to the Denver Broncos. However, the star pass rusher had two sacks in three consecutive games before last week’s contest. Furthermore, he has had at least one sack in 60% of the games over the past 11 weeks. The former first-round pick leads the NFL with 15 sacks, matching his career high from 2015. More importantly, Thursday night’s matchup is a revenge game for the star pass rusher.

When Los Angeles and Las Vegas faced off in Week 4, Mack hadn’t recorded a sack this season before that game. However, he was outstanding against his former team, totaling six sacks on Aidan O’Connell. The star pass rusher is only the fifth player in NFL history to have six or more sacks in a game and the first since Osi Umenyiora in 2007. Meanwhile, the Raiders have surrendered three or more sacks in nearly half of the games this year, including last week.

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