Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Jaguars vs. Saints

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 6 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 10/18/23

Derek Carr Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-105)

The veteran quarterback has had an up-and-down first season in New Orleans. However, Carr has played through a shoulder injury, which has impacted his ability to throw the ball downfield. However, he averaged 266.5 passing yards per game before getting hurt. More importantly, the former Fresno State star had a season-high 353 passing yards against the Houston Texans last week. Meanwhile, Carr has an appealing matchup on Thursday night.

Jacksonville has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks this year. They have surrendered 1,687 passing yards, the second-most in the NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 281.2 passing yards per game, giving up at least 305 yards in three matchups. Furthermore, Jacksonville held Desmond Ridder to only 191 passing yards in Week 4. Yet, they have been awful in the other five contests this season, surrendering 299.2 yards per game. After Gardner Minshew had 329 passing yards against the Jaguars in Week 6, Carr should have no trouble totaling 250 or more this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. Over 86.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)

While some believed Tank Bigsby would cut into Etienne’s workload this season, the former Clemson star has been outstanding. The third-year player has the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL (451), only 15 yards behind Zack Moss for second place. Etienne has also played a meaningful role in the passing game, posting a 10.8% target share. Furthermore, his 172 receiving yards are the sixth-most among running backs this season. More importantly, he has averaged 103.8 scrimmage yards per game, totaling 138 or more yards twice this year.

New Orleans has had an impressive run defense over the past few seasons. However, they have given up 72 or more rushing yards to running backs in half the games this year, including 103 last week. More importantly, the Saints have surrendered 98.2 scrimmage yards per game to running backs, giving up 97 or more yards in four contests. Etienne has accounted for 87.3% of the team’s backfield scrimmage yards. He will hit the over on this prop bet despite the matchup.

Alvin Kamara Over 86.5 Scrimmage Yards (-105)

Kamara missed the first three games with a suspension. However, he has hit the ground running since his return. The veteran running back has averaged 66.3 rushing yards and 28.7 receiving yards per game this season. More importantly, the former Tennessee star has had at least 84 scrimmage yards in every contest, including 97 or more in two consecutive matchups. Furthermore, Kamara has accounted for nearly 30% of the team’s scrimmage yards in the games he’s played this season.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have done well at slowing down opposing running backs, giving up only 56.8 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, they have struggled to slow down running backs in the passing game. Jacksonville has surrendered 243 receiving yards to running backs this year, the seventh-most in the league, giving up 40.5 yards per contest to the position. Last week, they allowed Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss to combine for 84 receiving yards, let alone another 40 on the ground. Kamara is the featured guy in New Orleans and could have 100 scrimmage yards in this contest.

Christian Kirk Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Many might want to avoid this bet because of Trevor Lawrence’s health. However, the star quarterback is trending towards playing despite a knee injury he suffered late in the Week 6 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The star receiver had an awful Week 1 performance. Yet, Kirk has been outstanding over the past five weeks, averaging 75 receiving yards per game. The former Texas A&M star has had at least 54 receiving yards in all but one contest since Week 1, including three with 78 or more yards.

The Saints have an elite cornerback on the roster – Marshon Lattimore. However, he will likely spend most of the game covering Calvin Ridley on the perimeter. Furthermore, Kirk primarily lines up in the slot, running over 72% of his routes from there this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans’ secondary has struggled the past few weeks. Over the past month, the Saints have surrendered 170.7 receiving yards to wide receivers outside of the matchup against the New England Patriots. Whether Lawrence or the backup C.J. Beathard starts this week, Kirk will be a critical part of the offense.

Rashid Shaheed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Shaheed has had a solid season, averaging 49.7 receiving yards per game. Unfortunately, his production has been impacted by Derek Carr’s shoulder injury. Over the first two weeks, the former undrafted free agent averaged 76 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 63 in both contests. However, he averaged only 20.3 receiving yards per game over the next three matchups with Carr hurt. Thankfully, the veteran quarterback looked healthy in Week 6, throwing for 353 yards, with 85 going to the second-year receiver.

More importantly, the Jaguars are a heavy Cover-3 defense. According to Fantasy Points Data, Jacksonville has played Cover-3 on 44.1% of their defensive dropbacks this season, 26.1% higher than any other coverage. Meanwhile, Shaheed has been at his best against Cover-3 defenses. He has a 22% target per route run rate against the coverage this season, catching 10 of his 16 passes this year against Cover-3. Furthermore, Jacksonville has given up the most deep throw attempts when playing Cover-3 this year. Expect Carr and Shaheed to connect on at least one big play downfield in this game.

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